Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 301752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON LATEST MODELS AND TRENDS. TWEAKED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SKY COVER PRIMARILY. STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE
SOUTH...WHERE A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH SEVERE
LIMITS. BEST SEVERE PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE FURTHER SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRESHENED UP FORECAST FOR WINDS AND CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ND SIDE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ERODING ON THE MN
SIDE. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE DRIER TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA. MAY NEED TO MODIFY PRECIP FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS AND UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR DIRECTION ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED OUT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DVL...WHICH WILL
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR BY MID AFTN. BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS DVL AND FAR ARE WEAKENING. POSSIBLE VCSH WITH
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN WITH REDEVELOPMENT OR LINGERING CLOUD DECK AT
DVL AND FAR. SE WINDS 15 TO 20KTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 TO 30KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS. SHOWERS POSSIBLY IMBEDDED WITH
THUNDER EXPECTED LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOST CERTAIN AT DVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JK





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