Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 222054
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
254 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Fog and light pcpn chances again the main issue for tonight.
Narrow band of dense fog just east of the valley showing signs
lifting. To the east of this band visibility good so unsure at
this point if this band will spread east or continue to lift. For
now with improving vsby will allow dense fog advisory expire and
will maintain mention of fog through evening to be safe. Weak mid
level shear axis skirting the international border mainly
affecting far northern Minnesota portion of the forecast area.
Weak lift with this feature, Colder air aloft and marginally
sufficient RH through the column feel that feel p-type will be
mainly snow although cannot rule out a brief mix. Anticipating
that snow will be main p-type not feeling there will be any travel
issues however evening shift will have to monitor. Elsewhere just
looking at mainly clouds overnight. With weak cold advection
temperatures will be cooler than previous nights with minimums blo
freezing overnight so any wet roadways may get slick.

Monday should be mainly quiet with temperatures generally at or
blo freezing. Introduced some slight pops across the far sw late
in the day as the leading edge of snow shield from next system may
reach this area by evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Watching system ejecting from the Rockies Mon night with latest
operational and ensemble guidance indicating the best potential for
heaviest QPF will be south of the region. The far southern FA (south
of I-94) could receive perhaps one to three inches of snow during
Tue/Tue night. The ECMWF has been pretty consistent with a more
progressive southern track while the GFS, as often is the case, has
been gradually trending farther to the north.

The main upper low will move by to the south, but several weak
reinforcing shortwaves will be rotating through during the period.
This will bring some light snow at times, but pcpn should be very
light with minimal accumulations. The shortwaves will also help
shift surface winds to a more northwesterly direction and bring some
cold air advection dropping mid week temps into the low and mid
20s, still above seasonal averages.

(Thu-Sun)

Cyclonic flow lingering into Thu could still produce some light
snow/snow showers east of the valley. Otherwise dry weather to
prevail from Fri into the weekend with temps climbing to the mid and
upper 20s for Sat/Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

IFR-LIFR cigs continue and will likely continue through the
forecast period. VSBY more variable with the lowest vsby just east
of the valley. Hoping for some improvement through the afternoon
but fog to some degree will likely continue east of the valley
tonight.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...Voelker


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