Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 171741

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1241 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Bumped up winds a bit across the northern counties as with a
fairly tight gradient it remains breezy across that area. There
should be gradual decrease as the surface low pulls further off to
the northeast. Clouds have been slower to decrease across the
eastern counties than originally expected and there has been some
cumulus formation from the highway 2 corridor northward. Adjusted
clouds up a bit for the next few hours but we should see some
clearing off late this afternoon and evening.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough was located
from southern ALTA/SASK border to ND. Trough was rotating to a
negative tilt into southern Canada with better than 130M height
falls to the north. ALTA/SASK portion of the trough will move
east across southern MAN this afternoon.
Water vapor loop indicated another short wave over western NV.
Short wave will move across the Red River Valley Sun night/Mon
morning. Short wave expected to produce only clouds maybe some
sprinkles. Increased wind for late Sun night into Mon with
short wave.

Next upper level trough off the west Canadian coast will approach
the forecast area Tue night. Also increased winds for Tue and Tue

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Rainfall associated with a passing cold front will exit to the east
before midday Wednesday yielding a dry and breezy rest of the day
with highs largely remaining in the 60s. Dry conditions are short
lived as rain chances increase Thursday morning in northeastern
North Dakota. Thursday afternoon into Friday, rain chances increase
further across the region as a low pressure system moves through the
area. Friday holds the best chance for rain. A cold front is
expected to sweep through the area Saturday shifting widespread rain
chances towards the south and east into Minnesota and South Dakota.
There is some question of how far this front will push south and
east thus determining rainfall chances Saturday into Sunday for
areas in Minnesota south of around US 2 as well as in southeastern
North Dakota, mainly south of I-94. While confidence remains on the
lower side, there does appear to be some chance of areas seeing
heavy rainfall Friday.

Temperatures look to be moderate through the beginning of the
forecast period until around late Friday through the weekend where
cooler temperatures are expected due to elevated rain chances,
associated clouds, and a wind direction largely out of the north and
west. Breezy conditions are also expected Wednesday through Friday,
especially in the afternoons.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

MVFR stratus lingers over the MN sites in the forecast area, and
some 2500-3200 ft stratocumulus has formed back over KGFK and
KDVL. The western TAF sites should see more consistent VFR
conditions in the next few hours but KBJI will hang onto high
MVFR/low VFR clouds until later on this evening. All sites should
be VFR after 00Z tonight. Some light rain showers moving in from
the southwest late tonight and tomorrow morning, but mostly look
like they will stay south and east of the TAF sites with clouds
around 8000 to 10000 ft as the moisture is fairly high based. West
winds that are breezy across the northern forecast area this
afternoon will decrease this evening and shift around to the
southeast. There could be some gusts near 20 kts tomorrow, mainly
near KFAR.




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