Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 211448

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
948 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Issued at 942 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Organized showers mainly confined to the far north and south-
southeast. Looking upstream closer to the front, not a great deal
of instability and less than ideal lapse rates so unsure of
additional development along front this afternoon as CAM and high
res model guidance generally dry. Made some minor pop adjustments
trending drier with the forecast. As for the eclipse still
looking like more clouds than sun however may be some periodic
breaks for the viewing. At this time the best potential will be
over east central North Dakota.

UPDATE Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Radar indicated thunder in central ND. however activity has
diminished with stronger storms occurring over SD. Still
added more thunder for today in the south and west.

Increased winds for later this afternoon and evening with a cold
front moving through. Otherwise no other changes at this update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Broad upper level trough was over the Northern Plains with short
wave in the flow. Water vapor loop indicated short waves over
western ND, eastern MT, and central SASK.

Precipitable water was around one inch and will decrease to
around half an inch by 12Z Tue. MUCapes were around
250-500 j/kg in western ND and will increase to around 1500 j/kg
in the western zones this afternoon., then slide off to the
southeast this evening.

Another short wave will move southeast out of Canada for Wed and
produce showers mainly over the MN side.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Thursday-Sunday...Models are in decent agreement moving the upper
ridge eastward and out of the area by Friday afternoon, with
increasing precipitation chances by later on Friday. Upper low and
strongest forcing will be well north into Canada, which leads to
some uncertainty regarding timing and location of any forcing
mechanisms across the northern plains of the USA. At any rate,
precipitation chances increase by later Friday and into the weekend,
although details still uncertain. Potential impacts appear to be
very low at this point. Slightly below normal temperatures to
continue through the period with highs in the 70s and lows in the


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

VFR conditions were across the area as cigs were above 10 thousand
ft. Could be a brief MVFR period Tue morning just east of the Red
River. Otherwise Expect VFR conditions for today and tonight. Cold
front will move through this afternoon. Could produce brief gusty
winds to 35-40 mph.




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