000
FXUS63 KFGF 312049
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
349 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

INTERESTING TO SEE THAT AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO DID FORM AT MID
AFTN BUT IN AREAS NOT EARLIER ANTICIPATED. DID UPDATE A SHORT TIME
AGO TO INCLUDE AN ISOLD SHOWER MENTION FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
WALHALLA-PARK RIVER AND SOUTH OF FARGO BUT THEY ARE WEAK. CU FIELD
IN THIS AREA ACTUALLY LOOKING A BIT LESS SHARP AND MORE FUZZY SO
THESE FEW SHOWERS MAY YET DISSIPATE.  DID KEEP 20 POP IN THRU 00Z.

OTHERWISE WILL SEE SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT. SOME MODELS ESP THE NAM
WANT TO KEEP GENERATING PRECIP AFTER 06Z IN SOUTHEASTERN ND. NOT
SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THAT. SO DID LEAVE IT DRY. FRIDAY WILL SEE A
BIT MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO MOVE SOUTH AS CAPES REMAIN WELL BELOW
1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES ARE ABOVE ZERO...UNLIKE TODAY`S
NEGATIVE 2. THIS AIRMASS THAT MIGHT MOVE IN IS IN EASTERN
MANITOBA-FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO TODAY INTO LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION.

SATURDAY WILL SEE A WEAK FRONT DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SASK/MANITOBA
AND INTO NRN RRV/NRN MN AND WILL KEEP IDEA OF A LOW POP.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE FOREAST AREA SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GFS MAINTAINS AN INCREASE IN PRECIP SUNDAY. FOR TIME
BEING WILL KEEP SLIGHT-CHC POPS...HIGHEST IN NW FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY....
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THIS
WEEKEND AND UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTHERN TIER WILL BECOME MORE
WEST NORTHWESTERLY...POSSIBLY ENDING A LONG DURATION OF DRY
WEATHER. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA NEXT
WEEK AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HRS. WILL SEE CU FIELD DEVELOP ESP ACROSS SE
ND THIS AFTN...AND WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR OUT AFT SUNDOWN TONIGHT. LIGHT
NW WINDS TO CONTINUE AND MAY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER