Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 311140
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR TODAY...COLD START COMBINED WITH WEAK MIXING
WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S (DESPITE FULL SOLAR). RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES TONIGHT...AND THE CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW QUICKLY
TEMPS FALL IN THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE STEADY (DUE TO
RETURN FLOW). THE ONE CERTAINTY...MIN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER WEST OF
THE VALLEY THAN EAST OF THE VALLEY.

ON SATURDAY...COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE (DRY AIRMASS WITH RIDGING ALOFT).
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER CONSIDERING INCREASED MIXING AND A
WARMING AIRMASS. STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME MIXING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE NEAR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS.
CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING LAYER UP TO AROUND
900MB...WITH AROUND 35 KNOTS AT THIS LAYER. IF THE MIXING LAYER IS
DEEPER THAN EXPECTED...MODELS INDICATE 850MB WIND SPEEDS AROUND 40
KNOTS...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO STRONGER SFC WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND ANY
WEAK WAVES EJECTING FROM WEST COAST TROUGH COULD LEAD TO CLOUD
COVER AND/OR SHOWERS. HOWEVER...AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY
AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WARM.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE QUIET TO
START...AS MAJOR GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF AN OMEGA UPPER
AIR PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SHORT WAVE MOVING
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD EXTREME NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA COULD
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OR MIXED PCPN THAT VICINITY EARLY TUES AS
REST OF REGION REMAINS DRY. MORE POTENT WAVE ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD OFFER A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY WITH SIGNS OF ANOTHER RIDGE MIGRATING IN
FROM THE WEST AT THE VERY END OF THE TILT. THIS PATTERN WOULD
INDICATE SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING LOW TEMPS MOST PLACES MOST OF THE
DAYS...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS ABOVE 12 KNOTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG






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