Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 190320
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1020 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is still some day to day fire weather concern, due to
  windy conditions, dry fuels, and low relative humidity.

- There is a 60 percent probability of minor impacts from
  snowfall across southeast North Dakota and west central
  Minnesota Thursday into Thursday evening, although wind speeds
  should not play a factor.

- The next system for the weekend into early next week could
  potentially bring warning type impacts to the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Breezy conditions continue, with a lull in conditions along the
surface trough axis ahead of the front pushing southeast.
Northwest winds are still shown buy guidance to pick up again
overnight with gusts possibly around 35 mph and there are
upstream ops that reflect that type of increase. High clouds
from earlier have already cleared but additional high clouds are
approaching from Canada and should eventually fill in. There is
still a signal for stratus to develop towards the morning hours
Tuesday, though guidance isn`t as consistent on coverage of
these lower clouds. I made some adjustment to reflect sky trends
and better reflect current wind shifts/speeds. Due to winds and
eventual increases in clouds cover lows may remain milder (30s)
but there could still be a window for some locations to quickly
drop where the lull in winds and clear skies alight (mid 20s).
I held off on any major changes to overnight lows for now.

Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

RH values decreased late afternoon across southeast ND and west
central MN with values wil in the 27-30% range along with
gusts occasionally in the 30 mph range creating near critical
fire weather conditions. RH values have held higher in the
north (35-65%) though winds have been just as high. We should
see wind gusts drop off and RH recover over the next few hours
with sunset. Periods of high clouds are moving through the
region. A front is starting to move into the region from the
northwest with the pre-frontal surface trough axis already
shifting winds over the Devils Lake Basin to the west-northwest.
Overall, the general forecast remains on track for the evening,
with minor adjustments to reflect current trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Areas west of the Red River Valley have very little cloud cover
now, as the remnants of the clouds have shifted east of the
Valley. Wind speeds continue to be somewhat slow in rising, but
they are breezy to windy. Similarly, temperatures are also slow
to rise, but they are slowly coming up now across central North
Dakota, pushing toward the western Devils Lake region. This
slowness has resulted in fairly high humidity values yet, but
there is still a potential for a short window during the late
afternoon and early evening for near critical fire weather
conditions in portions of the FA.

A cold front will move through later tonight into Tuesday
morning, bringing gusty northwest winds throughout the day
Tuesday. Models are showing low clouds dropping southward out
of southern Manitoba as well, with some light snow or flurries
possible. Because of the low clouds, am doubting that humidity
values will drop too much Tuesday afternoon. No doubt fuels are
dry and it will be windy. Will mention the elevated fire
weather potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, but hold off
on adding a Special Weather Statement.

Have been watching the next system (Thursday into Thursday
evening) for a few days now. It has slowed down by about 6
hours, so it arrives a little later now, and correspondingly
lasts longer too. The NBM shows about a 90 percent probability
of 2 inches of snow across southeast North Dakota and adjacent
areas of west central Minnesota, and even a 50 percent chance of
6 inches across the tri-state border intersection. As noted in
the midnight shift discussion, WPC probabilities are a little
lower than this. The forcing is warm advection and 700mb
frontogenesis, and it could pivot in that tri-state border
intersection area, allowing for a prolonged period of higher
snowfall rates there. All said, there is still a 60 percent
probability for minor impacts with this system. The positive is
that wind speeds look to remain on the lower side, and they
will not cause greater impacts. Winds are also from a cross
Valley direction (east to west), which is rarely favorable for
high winds.

There has also been a system to watch for the weekend and into
early next week. Previous ensembles had shown this arriving as
early as Friday, but it seems like it is more delayed now too.
This has the potential to be more of a hybrid or southwest flow
event, which typically are able to tap into more moisture. This
is still a long ways out, but it has the potential of producing
warning type impacts to portions of the FA. Stay tuned for later
forecasts throughout the week for additional information.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through this evening, until a
period of MVFR stratus (1700-2500 FT AGL) moves north to the
south across eastern ND and northwest MN behind a cold front.
Very light snow/flurries may also accompany that cloud layer
with brief visibility reductions, though confidence in snow or
visibility impacts is low (less than 10%).

Ahead of this front gusty southwest winds will continue into
the evening shifting to the west then northwest as this front
passes. Several periods of wind shear ahead of then immediately
behind the cold front (one from the west the other from the
northwest) will also impact the region later this
evening/overnight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...DJR


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