000
FXUS63 KFGF 280545
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next round of rain Sunday afternoon into Monday. Probabilities
  of over half an inch of rain are 70 percent for the southern
  Red River Valley into west central Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Low clouds continue to linger over much of the area except the
Devils Lake Basin. There`s a possibility for fog to develop
tonight in the cloudless areas, will continue to monitor.
Forecast remains on track.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Trough over MN starting to lift into Ontario, and as expected
most of the light rain has tapered off. Tonight should be pretty
quiet with brief ridging between systems, although cloud cover
should keep all but the northern tier above freezing.

Upper low will start to lift into Neb/SD tomorrow, then up into
our CWA Sunday night before going into northern MN on Monday.
The surface low is tracking to our southeast, allowing at least
our southern counties to get some good QPF from the deformation
band setting up. Probabilities for 48 hour totals over half an
inch are over 70 percent for much of the southern Red River
Valley and west central MN. Lesser amounts expected further
north and west, although at least some rain is expected across
most of the forecast area. Probabilities of at least a quarter
of an inch are 20 percent or more for even our far northwestern
counties, and the northern Red River Valley has about a 50-50
shot of seeing at least 0.25". Rain showers taper off from west
to east Monday evening.

Another low comes out into the Northern Plains
Tuesday/Wednesday, bringing some more chances for light
precipitation. The active pattern continues through the end of
the week into Saturday, although predictability is low with the
timing of each shortwave coming through. With clouds and
precipitation, temperatures look to remain mostly on the cooler
side of climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

MVFR conditions are scattered across the TAF sites. KDVL is
right on the edge of a broken cloud layer and a clearing and is
the only VFR site right now. However, KDVL could produce some
early morning fog due to this clearing. Borderline MVFR/VFR will
continue through the night with cloud decks between 1500ft and
3000ft. The timing of the next system looks to be in the
afternoon/evening so ceilings may start to fall into MVFR/IFR
ahead of the system.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AH
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...MM