000
FXUS63 KFGF 280437
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1137 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Increased pops as convection expanding across the western and
southern fa in response to strengthening low level jet. No other
changes.

UPDATE Issued at 927 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Delayed pops with upstream convection just crossing the Missouri.
No other changes.

UPDATE Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

No changes planned at this time as will be monitoring upstream
thunderstorm development and organization.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

A good chance for showers and thunderstorms continues for tonight
as an upper level wave pushes through the region. An area of mid
level frontogenesis has brought cloud cover and a few isolated
showers/thunderstorms to far SE ND this afternoon. The elevated
instability (around 100 to 250 J/kg) drops off considerably as the
activity moves east into MN based on the 2 PM mesoscale analysis.
Still, the best chance will come tonight, primarily after
midnight. MU CAPEs of 750 to 1500 J/kg and shear of 15 to 30kts
could produce a few severe storms, but the severe threat should be
limited.

Rain chances increase as the wave moves into MN after midnight
...where the best chance for an inch rain will be. Low clouds will
move into the region tonight as well...and will be slow to move
off Wednesday morning. Believe parts of MN will not shake the low
clouds and stay cool and cloudy all day. Showers and thunderstorms
will likely continue through the morning and into the afternoon
across NW MN...exiting the Lake of the Woods region late in the
day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Another chance for rain will come on Thursday and Friday as an
upper low moves through the region. Temps will be warm on Thursday
ahead of the upper low...but then will cool off to the mid 60s
and low 70s by Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected...but the severe threat will be low Thursday and Friday.

Another in a series of semi-permanent upper lows will be swirling
over southern Manitoba early in the weekend accompanied by the usual
nondescript synoptic surface flow. Generally the area will see more
clouds than sun with below average temperatures and periodic shower
chances from Fri night through Sat night. By Sunday 500mb ridging
begins working into the northern plains with an associated boost in
850 mb temps into the positive double digits. This warm air
advection will continue through Independence Day. Flow will remain
zonal versus southwest for the second half of the period resulting
in low but not negligible pcpn chances as temps continue to rise to
the mid and upper eighties by Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Thunderstorms beginning to expand across the sw half of the fa and
will impact all TAF sites by morning. Cigs will be the big
challenge as guidance continues to lower cigs to the MVFR/IFR
ranges by morning. Was not quite as drastic in lowering cigs but
will have to monitor. Cigs should lift late morning and afternoon
to VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...Knutsvig/WJB
AVIATION...Voelker