000
FXUS63 KFGF 051814
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1214 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO BLIZZARD WARNING THIS AFTN AND EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY. FRESH POWDER AND WINDS INCREASING TO
25 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB
DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WILL BE ENOUGH FOR GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN OPEN COUNTRY. A BRIEF BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME ADDING TO THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. WINTER
WX ADVY FOR THE REMAINING AREA NORTH OF HWY 200 WITH SOME BLOWING
SNOW CONCERNS THOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE AND DURATION WILL BE LESS AS
LITTLE TO NO NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED.

DID GO AHEAD WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR THE SAME AREA
4Z TO 12Z WITH THE NEXT WAVE AND ITS POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING
RAIN AND ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

STATUS QUO FOR THIS UPDATE. GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE AS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS INDUCING SOME BLOWING SNOW
THIS AFTN AND EVENING COUPLED WITH A ROUND OF WAA SNOW. SOME
CONCERN WITH EXTENT OF COVERAGE OF BLOWING SNOW AND WILL MONITOR
TO SEE IF WNTR WX ADVSY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE FORECAST THINKING
FOR TODAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED...OR UPGRADED. AS OF NOW...IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE.

FOR TONIGHT...STILL EXPECT A BREAK IN SNOWFALL AND WINDS TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THEN...A BAND OF SNOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY TWO. SINCE THE
LAST DISCUSSION...HAD A CHANCE TO LOOK MORE IN DETAIL AT THIS
EVENT. THE 06Z GFS INDICATES THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PWATS WILL BE NEAR 0.5 INCH...ALONG WITH
STRONG 850MB FRONTOGENESIS. ALTHOUGH THE HI-RES MODELS
(NAM12...WRF MODELS) MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE PRECIP
PLACEMENT...THEY SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT IDEA REGARDING AMOUNTS.
THEY INDICATE AROUND 0.40 INCHES WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BAND. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850MB
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ADVECT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL...SO THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
(AND POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SOUTH OF THE SNOWFALL). THE
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE IS COMING IN SUPPORTING THE GFS PLACEMENT...SO
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. WILL RAISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WORRY
ABOUT TODAYS HEADLINES BEFORE ANY POTENTIAL HEADLINES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW...AND A FEW
SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 00Z MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT DO DIFFER WITH DETAILS. 00Z NAM IS
FURTHER NORTH/SLOWER THAN OTHER MODELS...WILL FOLLOW A ECMWF/GFS
BLEND.

TODAY...THE GFS/ECMWF BLEND AND INCOMING HI-RES MODELS (MPX
WRF...RAP...HRRR) SUGGEST A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
-SN ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2 THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SNOW
RATIOS SHOULD BE LOWER (12:1-14:1) CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED FORCING
MECHANISM. USING THE FAVORED MODEL QPF BLEND GIVES AROUND 0.10
INCHES...AND EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL (POSSIBLY UP TO 2 INCHES). ANTICIPATE THAT THIS SNOWFALL
WILL OCCUR IN A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD...SO RATES WILL BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING AN ADIABATIC LAYER TO 900MB...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SFC-
925MB WIND DIRECTION...AND 925MB WIND SPEEDS 30-35 KNOTS (POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO OVER 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING). THESE CONDITIONS
USUALLY LEAD TO 25-35 MPH WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY (AND
TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY).
THERE HAS BEEN SOME VERY LIGHT FRESH SNOW THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS...AND AT LEAST BLOWING SNOW SEEMS POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY...WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST...AND ANOTHER
INCH OR SO OF FRESH SNOW WILL OCCUR...VISIBILITIES MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED IN BLOWING SNOW (POSSIBLY NEAR BLIZZARD IN
SOME AREAS). CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT A
LONG DURATION OF WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...BUT CERTAINLY A
BRIEF PERIOD ALONG WITH THE FALLING SNOW...AS WELL AS THE MORE
FAVORED OPEN AREAS WHEN THERE IS NO FALLING SNOW (FOR
EXAMPLE...THE CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK CORRIDOR). COULD SEE THE
ADVISORY BEING EXPANDED IF WIND SPEEDS ARE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN FA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS
FURTHEST SOUTH WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP...BUT HAS BEEN VERIFYING BEST
LATELY WITH LOCATION OF PRECIP. MESOSCALE FORCING (MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS) IS STRONGER WITH THIS EVENT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
CLOSELY. THINKING 1-3 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...BUT
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...BUT STILL 20-25 MPH. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANDING THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THIS EVENT AS WELL. 850MB TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING MAY ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
BAND...LEADING TO SLEET/FZRA. ANTICIPATE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY
ON THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA...ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS. COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF SHOW SHARP
NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ZONAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PACIFIC ENERGY TEMPORARILY FLATTENS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
WITHIN THIS FLOW ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL BE ALONG OR NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE LOW. WITH
THIS IN MIND...WILL FOLLOW ALL BLEND POPS WHICH KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN PAINT 20 TO 30 PERCENT MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY
COULD RESULT IN MIXED/FREEZING P-TYPE...BUT WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE
FOR NOW WITH RAIN/SNOW.

ON BALANCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY
WITH 850 HPA VALUES ABOVE 0 C...AFTER WHICH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.
ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS WITH WIDESPREAD 40S FOR SUNDAY/
MONDAY. GIVEN OUR COLDER THAN NORMAL TRACK RECORD THUS FAR THIS
SEASON...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM  CST WED MAR 5 2014

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO 35KT AT TIMES IN THE VALLEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE VSBYS TO FALL INTO THE IFR
RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES WHEN SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT AND SHIFT MORE
WESTERLY...WITH IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH CIGS AND SOME SNOW/MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006-014-
     015-024-026-028>030.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR NDZ007-008-016-027-054.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ007-008-016-
     027-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ002-005-
     006-008-013>015.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR MNZ001-004-007.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...DK