Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 140904
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
404 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

AS ADVERTISED THE UPPER LOW IS DROPPING SOUTH WITH CENTER BETWEEN
KENORA AND INTL FALLS. IT WILL DROP SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST
TODAY. COLDEST POOL OF AIR OVER THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING THEN
SLOWLY MODERATES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTN.
RADAR SHOWS SPOTTY SHOWERS WHICH DROPPED SOUTH WITH A SECOND SURGE
OF COLD AIR AND 20-30 MPH WINDS LATE EVENING OVER THE SRN VALLEY
INTO WCNTRL MN. SOME CLEARING UPSTREAM OF THIS WAVE...BUT CANADIAN
RADARS SHOW ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA AND TOWARD LAKE OF THE WOODS. ANY WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECT SELF
DESTRUCT SUN TODAY SO THAT ANY CLEAR AREAS WILL FILL IN WITH
STRATOCU THIS MORNING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THAT SAID IDEA OF ISOLD-SCT POPS RRV AND
ND TO HIGH SCT POPS EAST SEEM VERY REASONABLE. WILL SLOWLY TAPER
OFF POPS MID TO LATE AFTN AS COLD POOL SHIFS SOUTHEAST AND SOME
DRYING COMES IN FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
TODAY WITH NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS. IN SOME SPOTS MAX TEMPS TODAY
MAY RIVAL LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS FOR THE 14TH.

SKIES CLEAR OFF TONIGHT...WITH SUNSHINE TUESDAY MIXED WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS TUESDAY AFTN. TEMPS WARM A BIT BUT STILL BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER AND SUNSHINE...THOUGH LIKELY SOME AFTN CU AGAIN ESP WED.
HIGH TEMPS WARMING TO 80 OR SO BY THURSDAY.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THIS PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
PACIFIC RETROGRADE A BIT WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE WEST COAST AND A WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER THE ECMWF
IS A LITTLE FASTER SOLUTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL BLEND
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHIFTING PRECIP FARTHER NORTH
OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. WILL TRIM BACK POPS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI
NIGHT IN THE NORTH.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS FROM YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.




&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

WEST AND SOUTH FROM GFK EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDS WITH INCREASING
MID LVL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND NORTHERLY BLAYER WINDS. NORTH AND
EAST FROM GFK INTO TVF AND BJI EXPECT AREAS MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA
FROM MIDNIGHT INTO MIDMORNING. AFTER MIDMORNING EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SCT -SHRA AND BRISK NORTHERLY BLAYER WINDS.
CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE IN THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GUST






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