000
FXUS63 KFGF 270735
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
235 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another period of rain is expected Sunday into Monday, with a
  60 percent probability for amounts greater than 0.50 inches
  mainly along and east of the Red River Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Regional radar imagery shows two areas with steadier rain early
this morning, one centered around St. Cloud Minnesota and the
other extending along the Canadian border back toward Langdon
and west of Devils Lake. The area around St. Cloud is tied to
the main 700mb circulation, which shows up nicely on water
vapor imagery. The other area is a deformation band, which is
slowly getting cutoff. There has been some lightning associated
with the first area, mainly across Crow Wing County, just to the
east of the FA. For today, basically expect the 700mb low to
continue to lift northeast, with high pressure building in
behind it. However, until this happens by late morning or early
afternoon, there will be some lingering showers across the FA.
Additional precipitation amounts look to stay under a tenth of
an inch.

There won`t be much of a break in the action, with the next
round of precipitation arriving Sunday into Monday. This system
looks very similar to one exiting the area today, with a 700mb
low lifting up through the FA and on into the Minnesota
arrowhead. This 700mb low may be a little further north,
allowing more of the FA to get into the higher probabilities for
half an inch of rain or more (most of the Red River Valley east
into west central and northwest Minnesota has about a 60 percent
probability for amounts greater than 0.50 inches). These
probabilities drop off quite a bit from the Devils Lake region
into the far northern Valley (20-40 percent).

As this low pushes off to the east Monday night, there should
be another short break from the rain. However, the parade of
waves is expected to continue, with another one working into the
FA Tuesday into Tuesday night. Much more uncertainty works into
the precipitation forecast for the Wednesday through Saturday
period. The NBM keeps widespread low (20 percent) precipitation
chances throughout this entire time period. This will continue
until there is better resolution on how any of the additional
waves will kick out. It does appear to remain on the cloudy
side, so temperatures will stay cooler overall.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Areas of rain, drizzle, and light fog continue to move across
eastern ND and northwest MN and ceilings/visibility remain
highly variable (mainly within IFR/MVFR ranges). The low
pressure responsible for the rain and aviation impacts will
slowly transition out of the region to the east-northeast
through midday Saturday and VFR should arrive for northeast ND
and parts of northwest MN by the evening. However as surface
high pressure passes to the north and a stalled frontal zone may
linger in the south, MVFR ceilings are now shown to prevail at
KFAR and KBJI. Winds shifting to the northeast should eventually
become northerly Saturday increasing during the day as the
surface low moves through the region.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...DJR