Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 270202
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
902 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

The short range models which indicated development of precip into
southeastern ND were correct. A weak sfc boundary is roughly from
north of DTL to near Fargo then to Oakes then extends south from
there into south central SD. Convection firing along it in SD is
spreading and developing northeast in scattered fashion near the
boundary. So added pops farther over SE ND into parts of WC MN.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

A weak sfc low over SE MB is resulting in weak cyclonic sfc flow
in the northeast. Most cloud cover across the northern half of the
CWA is becoming more cellular and may see some clearing by late
tonight. This afternoon, southeastern ND has been clear for
majority of day and full solar should increase thorugh the
afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis indicating a band of 500 to 1000 J/KG
mean layer CAPE along clear line with cu field to the north,
extending into Valley City area. Expect that to extend into
southeastern ND through the afternoon and will be best chance for
convective activity late afternoon into the evening. Will keep
some low POPs across north in cycloic flow associated with SFC low
in SE MB, but majority of FA north of I-94 expected to be dry
overnight. Will keep low POPs in NW zones as upper low moves
across n central ND, but without decent heating today threat is
minimal.

For Friday...chances for precipitation increase tomorrow
afternoon as a vort max embedded in SW flow pattern aloft lifts
out of eastern SD during the mid aftn and into w central MN during
the early evening. Best chances for convection will be eastern CWA
in the evening hours, per preferred GFS although QPF maxima is
overly bullish.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Saturday and Sunday...Ridging from high pressure over norther
Sask/MB begins working its way into ND on Saturday, with northerly
SFC flow west of the valley. Will begin lowering pops for DVL
basin, trending toward dry from 06Z Sunday and through the day
Sunday. NAM continues to have SCT activity across the CWA on Sat
and confidence in NAM is low at this point, preferring the drier
GFS.

For Sunday night through Thursday...Still looking like a split flow
regime near the start of the long term. As the west coast ridge
builds, a low forms over Montana. This low will slowly track east
through the remainder of the long term period, or right through this
FA. Looking at the 12z model runs, the ECMWF remains faster than the
GFS in this eastward progression. What this means is that Sunday
night and Monday should mainly be dry, while Tuesday through
Thursday will see fairly decent chances for rain. Correspondingly,
Monday also looks to be the warmest day. With more clouds and rain,
Tuesday through Thursday cool down closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

For the most part expecting VFR conditions thru the pd. Some weak
CU this eve and some patchy mid or high clouds tonight into Fri
morning. Then some CU development Friday aftn. All areas have
light winds overnight and with that some risk of some lower clouds
developing with best chance in DVL basin. &&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...Godon/Speicher
AVIATION...Riddle


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