Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 150102
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
702 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 701 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Water vapor loop indicated a short wave trough from WI to southeast
Ontario. North-south upper jet was diving south on the west side of
the trough. Warm advection will kick in for the rest of the night.
Tweaked hourly temps and dewpoints for the evening. Tweaked winds
and sky.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Forecast challenges/impacts mainly temperatures and fog potential.
Strongest push of low level cold advection from the northern
valley into northwest Minnesota today and should level off
tonight. Mixing should diminish rather quickly this evening as
surface ridge axis builds into the region. Expect coldest
temperatures over the NE Fa with warmest values over the far
S/SW which has little snow left and least intrusion of low level
cold advection. Generally looking at lows in the single digits to
teens in the far south. Model visibility guidance hinting at
potential for fog limited to the far west under light winds and
SKC.

Warm up begins tomorrow as ridge axis shifts east allowing for
return flow and respectable warm advection. Dependent on degree of
cloud cover will see highs ranging from the 20s over the east to
near 40 over the far west.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

The main theme in the extended period is temperatures 15-20+ degrees
above normal Wednesday night through Monday. The forecast is
generally dry through Saturday night with the next chance of
precipitation for the entire area not arriving until early next week.

For Wednesday night through Saturday, the models are in good
agreement that an unusually amplified upper level pattern and strong
warm air advection will bring temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above
normal for this time of year in eastern North Dakota and northwest
Minnesota. Adjusted in coordination with surrounding offices to
account for this, which will likely bring highs in the 40s, and even
50s for snow free areas. The warmest day of the week will be Friday,
but for the stretch from Thursday through Monday, we will likely
flirt with record highs and max lows each day. The forecast is dry
from Wednesday night through Sunday, as any features providing
lift/forcing needed are to our north or well to the south in this
split flow regime.

After high pressure rushes through Saturday night and the upper
level system/sfc low approaches Sunday night, forecast confidence
decreases considerably. Model consensus strongly precipitation
chances that moving in Sunday night from the southwest, spreading
over the entire forecast area Monday, and exiting Monday night. At
this time, most individual models are still leaning toward a
primarily rain solution with high temperatures above freezing, but
they vary considerably in the low track, potential return of
near/below freezing temperatures, QPF, and moisture fields.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 701 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Fog loop indicated some cirrus clouds were spilling over the upper
ridge and into the forecast area. Otherwise VFR conditions were
across the area. Expect mostly VFR conditions for tonight and Wed.
However MVFR/IFR conditions are expected over the western parts of
the area tonight and Wed morning due to potential fog.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hoppes
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...Hoppes



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