Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 070347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
947 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Issued at 947 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Temperatures have dropped to near zero over a good portion of
northwest Minnesota. Expecting it to be fairly clear for the first
half of the night, with more clouds moving in late. So dropped low
temps in this area a little more and will continue to watch what
happens through the late evening.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Any impacts tonight and Thursday would continue to be a combination
of patchy blowing and drifting snow and icy and snow-covered
roads, particularly in parts of northwest MN. However these
impacts should be minimal, to a lesser degree than the past few
days. Mid level drier air moves in tonight, causing clouds to lift
and scatter out. This will allow for more cooling than we`ve seen
the past few nights, resulting in low temperatures in the single
digits above and below zero. Additionally, the weakening pressure
gradient will turn winds more westerly with gusts up to 25 mph by
mid day Thursday. Breezy conditions combined with lows in the
single digits will result in subzero wind chill values for tonight
and Wednesday morning. Before clouds build back in from the
northwest late Thursday, sunshine and the departing trough aloft
will bring warmer weather with highs expected to reach the teens
to 20s, near normal values.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Friday-Friday Night...Guidance is in reasonable agreement depicting
a stronger upper wave dropping just east of the region within
northerly flow aloft. GFS/ECMWF in good agreement with timing of
this feature, while the GEM and NAM are slower. Most likely timing
for impacts will be Friday afternoon/evening. Moisture and forcing
will be limited, but anticipate at least some measurable snow (up
to an inch, likely east of the valley), and then stronger winds (and
at least patchy blowing snow). Details with winds and blowing snow
potential still uncertain.

Saturday-Wednesday...Northerly flow aloft continues as the pattern
undergoes very little change. Expect an upper wave propagating
through the region every few days, with light snow and stronger
winds (blowing snow) the main impacts.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Winds have rapidly dropped off with only some mid and high clouds
across the area. There is a patch of borderline VFR/MVFR clouds
over eastern Montana that the models bring into the FA late
tonight/early Thursday. Winds will be lower on Thursday, and from
a westerly direction.




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