Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200958
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
358 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE FA TODAY. AFTER A COLD START
SOLAR AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST RECOVERY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING BUT BY MID/LATE
EVENING RETURN FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LEVEL OFF TEMPERATURE DROP. THE FAR EAST WILL
HAVE THE COLDEST READINGS HAVING LONGEST TO RADIATE OUT.

BRISK S-SW SURFACE FLOW AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS INDICATING FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RH IN WARM
ADVECTION ZONE WHICH MAY LIMIT BIG WARM UP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SOME DEGREE OF MIXING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

GFS STRONGER WITH COLD ADVECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
FOLLOWING WEAK TROUGH/SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. NAM/ECMWF WARMER AND WILL
FOLLOW THESE MODELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD
FINALLY APPROACH OR EXCEED 32F.

WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE.

LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH DAY 5. THEN DE AMPLIFIES A BIT
THEREAFTER. THE GFS IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUN. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMES INCORPORATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS
LOW. EXTENSIVE PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUN AND MON OVER THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED GENERALLY ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR SUN AND
DECREASE ONE TO TWO DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS EVEN KBJI
HAS CLEARED OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
BECOME VARIABLE TOMORROW AS THEY GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
THEN SOUTH.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR





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