Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KFGF 260209

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
909 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Issued at 852 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

No big updates planned for the late evening. Band of somewhat
elevated convection just edging into Grant and Douglas County MN.
CAMS keep stronger storms anchored a bit further south along a
nearly stationary warm front. Isolated convection still
attempting to fire along the weak cold frontal boundary now past
Baudette...with weak-moderate forcing pushing into northcentral
MN. More convection still possible here.

UPDATE Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

No significant updates planned for this early evening. Weak cold
front along a Gwinner-Fargo-baudette line will continue sagging
to the south and east. Main deep convection appears to be focused
on the warm frontal boundary anchored south of a Watertown to St.
Cloud line.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

A capping inversion has prevented thunderstorm development across
much of the area this afternoon, resulting in scattered showers
across the southern half of the forecast area. By early this
evening, the surface cold front will drape across approximately from
Baudette to Mahnomen to Lisbon. For areas northwest of, or
behind, the front, this will result in cooler, drier air filtering
in, leaving dry and pleasant conditions for later tonight and

Additional scattered thunderstorms are expected to fire tonight
across another boundary moving north into South Dakota and
southern Minnesota. As this boundary and the related system
continue to move north and east tonight, the potential exists for
these strong to severe level storms to move into areas along and
south of Interstate 94, in portions of the far southern Red River
Valley and west central Minnesota. The main threats expected with
these storms will be hail to an inch and a half in diameter and
wind gusts to 60 mph, but an isolated tornado is also possible.

On Wednesday, drier northwest flow develops aloft with surface high
pressure moving in from Saskatchewan. Expect more sunshine Wednesday
with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and a northwest breeze.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Minimal weather impacts in the extended period with 500mb ridging
stretching well north into the Canadian rockies and prairies. As a
result a quiet weather pattern will take hold across the forecast
area with seasonal temperatures and SFC high pressure in place for
the rest of the week. A chance for rain does enter the picture some
time between Friday night or Saturday night as a weak front or
trough passes. Timing at this range difficult to nail down as is
thunderstorm coverage but there is a chance currently across the
entire area. Temperatures for the period will be at to just above
normal with plentiful sun and low to mid 80s expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Expect generally fair skies and a light northwest blayer flow
through eastern ND and most of northwest MN through the overnight.
MVFR cigs along a BJI-PKD line will shift steadily southeastward
through 03z. Areas of MVFR CIGS should linger through the
overnight in west central MN... mainly alg a Y63-ADC line. Fair
skies and light northerly flow continue on Wednesday.




AVIATION...Gust is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.