Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 160237
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
937 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Matched current radar trends with PoPs otherwise forecast going as
expected. Widespread rainfall across E ND continues with more
scattered coverage in the southern valley and lakes country of MN.
Will see coverage expand into NW MN over the next few hours with
activity in NE SD filling in and lifting NE. Most the the
precipitation is expected to be clear the FA or be confined to the
far northern portions by 4am or so.

UPDATE Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Updated PoPs to match the current trends for the rest of the
evening and into the overnight. Another round of widespread rain
is expected across the NW half of the FA as 850mb moisture
advection continues to feed into the area underneath increasing
mid and upper level forcing. Across the SE chances for precip will
be decided by convection in SD and its evolution to the NE. As
such less widespread coverage and more scattered activity is
anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Bands of showers and thunderstorms will continue to propagate
northward through the evening in warm advection zone ahead of well
defined wave and associated surface low over the central plains.
As surface low along the NE/SD border region and elevated warm
front approaches late afternoon and this evening and warm
advection is maximized over portions of the fa will have to
monitor for potentially stronger storms. Best chances and highest
pops will shift into the northern fa by late evening. Temperatures
not likely to do much overnight.

Less certain about rain potential tomorrow. Cold front will
propagate east and will be on the eastern fringe of the forecast
area tomorrow afternoon. If there is a potential for T tomorrow
afternoon it will be short lived. Otherwise, main shear axis will
rotate through so will keep some lower chance pops going however
low level forcing looks to be lacking. With cold advection during
the day and clouds any recovery will be minor.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Saturday night through Thursday

Drier conditions are expected Sunday into Sunday night with isolated
rain showers possible across the region Monday. Temperatures during
this time Will remain seasonal with highs climbing into the upper
60s and low 70s with overnight lows dropping to the mid to upper
40s. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday as a cold
front moves across the state in association with an upper level
trough ejecting out over the northwestern US. While still several
days out, long term guidance suggests CAPE and shear values
supportive of severe thunderstorms across central and eastern ND
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Temperatures should rebound
with highs in the low to mid 70s for Wednesday and Thursday with
drier conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

MVFR to IFR CIGs this evening into the overnight as several rounds
of precip make their way through the area. Will VCTS this evening
as isolated thunder possible at all TAF sites. Precip coverage
will diminish towards morning and more scattered redevelopment is
expected during the afternoon Saturday.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...JK



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