Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 210922

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
322 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Weather impacts confined to hazardous wind chills this morning as
temperatures are in the single digits below zero. Westerly winds
across eastern North Dakota ranging from 10 to 15mph are creating
wind chills in the 20 to 30 below range. Surface high pressure
will track south of the FA with westerly winds weakening and
turning to the south under mostly clear skies. Temps should rise
into the single digits above across the Devils Lake basin with
mid to upper teens in the eastern and southern zones.

Tonight temperatures should be a bit higher than the previous
night and thus wind chills remain in the 10 to 20 below range,
just warmer than the 25 below criteria for advisory conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Thursday and Friday... Quiet weather and high pressure with near
normal temperatures until the next system approaches on Thursday
afternoon. Recent NAM and CMC runs have been trending this system
farther north. The GFS has been sticking with lower QPF and keeps
snow mostly in northwest Minnesota. This difference is tied to
different evolutions and placements of the surface low. The GFS
keeps this low farther away than the NAM and CMC which leads to the
lower snow totals. CIPS Analogs using the GFS 75th percentile also
suggest that higher snow totals are possible. The best chance for
snow is in northwest Minnesota and southeast North Dakota. There is
potential for banding with NAM having frontogenesis in southeast
North Dakota and west central Minnesota.

Saturday through Tuesday night... The next chance for snow comes
Saturday as a surface low moves into the Midwest. There are a
variety of solutions in the models at this time for this event which
leads to a lot of uncertainty. The GFS takes this low up into
Minnesota which gives the support for snow across eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota. Other models keep this low and its
precipitation farther away. Past this system quiet weather is
expected with near normal temperatures though this period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1033 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

A small area of 2500 to 3500 ft cigs over Rugby area moving into
vcnty of DVL but trajectory suggests it may sink south. Will
introduce a tempo group from 05Z to 08Z. VFR otherwise with light
westerlies thorugh TAF periods. See prev discussion on morning
frost potential.


ND...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ006-007-



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