Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 100539
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. WEB CAM AT
RUGBY SHOWS A LITTLE ACCUMULATION ON THE ROAD THERE. WITH NO WIND
THE VSBY REMAINS GOOD OR AROUND 2 MILES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 1-2 INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW
FROM WEST OF KDVL DOWN THRU KJMS...WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING TOWARD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE LATEST RUNS KEEP ANY SNOW OUT OF
KGFK/KFAR BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT
SNOW AT TIMES. STILL NOTHING TO THE EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE TIMING...PLACEMENT AND
ACCUMULATION FOR A QUICK MOVING SNOW BAND TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
WITH THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE OVER THE
GENERAL AREA FROM CANDO TO DEVILS LAKE TO VALLEY CITY TO GWINNER
AND POINTS WEST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW AREA...MESOSCALE
INDUCED...OF HIGHER SNOWFALL IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE AS
850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS STRONG. WHERE THIS BAND MAY SET
UP WILL HAVE TO BE SEEN ONCE REGIONAL MESOSCALE RUNS CAN BE
ASSESSED FOR TRENDS. WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THIS BANDING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST INTO
THE DVL BSN 06-09Z AND SE ND BY 12Z AND QUICKLY EXIT WEDNESDAY
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS WILL RANGE WIDELY FROM WEST TO
EAST ONCE AGAIN WITH NEAR 20 IN SE ND AND 5 IN THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON CLOUD
COVER...WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMP TO FALL BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH 925MB
TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. FRIDAY
HIGHS WILL BE STEADY TO FALLING WITH MORNING MAXIMUMS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...NW MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY GIVES WAY TO
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SATURDAY PRIOR TO NEXT WAVE PASSAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH WAVE HOWEVER
THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT SHOT OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. COLDEST MORNING IN SOME TIME SATURDAY AM WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO AVERAGE TO FINISH WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK WEAK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST MODELS
KEEP ANY LIGHT SNOW OUT OF KFAR/KGFK...SO HAVE REMOVED THAT FROM
THE LATEST TAFS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW REMAIN AT KDVL...WHICH
COULD DROP THE VSBY THERE BELOW A MILE AT TIMES. WITH LITTLE OR NO
SNOW AT KGFK/KFAR...ALSO INCREASED THE CEILINGS. WORST CEILINGS
WILL ALSO BE WITH THE SNOW AT KDVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON


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