Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 270441
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

JUST A FEW CELLS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. BAND OF UPSTREAM SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH FAR NW FA AFT MIDNIGHT IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER. CURRENT POPS IN LINE WITH THIS SO NO UPDATE
NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

NO CHANGES NECESSARY...ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES AND HOW SEVERE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A DECENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE CWA.
THIS HAS BEEN AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
CONCENTRATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. ML CAPE VALUES IN THE AREA
ARE AROUND 1500 J/KG BUT DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS VERY LOW. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH STORMS FOR SOME PULSING UP AS THEY HAVE BEEN
PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL HAIL...BUT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE MORE
ADVISORY LEVEL STORMS RATHER THAN WARNING LEVEL. ANY STORMS THAT
DO PRODUCE HAIL WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF IN A NO SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL HAVE THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING AROUND THE
00-03Z TIME FRAME AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF AND WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR NOW. SOME OF THE CAM MODELS AND EVEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE PUTTING OUT SOME PRECIP INTO OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...AN EVEN STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH ALBERTA WILL BEGIN DIGGING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT THE TIMING WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK
HEATING. NAM HAS SOME SPOTS WITH OVER 3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED
CAPE WHICH IS PROBABLY OVERDONE BUT EVEN THE GFS HAS 2000 J/KG IN
SOME AREAS. AT ANY RATE SOME GOOD DESTABILIZATION SEEMS LIKELY.
THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THAN
TODAY...AROUND 50 KTS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WILL HAVE 50-60
POPS MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRETTY
STEEP AND EVEN WITH FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD BASES THINK WE WILL GET A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SEVERE MAINLY
CENTERED ON THE RED RIVER VALLEY. PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST
OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LINGERING CLOUDS AND INCREASING WINDS WILL
KEEP LOWS AROUND 60...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY
AS WE SHOULD GET 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S C AND GOOD
MIXING AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY
AS THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SFC WINDS
WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THE MODELS INCLUDED SOME PRECIP IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES AS COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. THINK THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE TO OUR EAST BUT KEPT SOME LOW POPS ALONG OUR
EASTERN BORDER. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL GET KNOCKED BACK A FEW
DEGREES BUT THINK THAT MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AGAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO START THE WORK
WEEK AND INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES TOWARD MID-WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING THAN AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...MAINLY WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA...PSBL SEVERE...WILL LIKELY BE AFT 20Z
FROM VALLEY EASTWARD WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. UNTIL TIL THEN
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA PSBL IN THE DVL AREA
DURING MID OVERNIGHT HOURS IF CURRENT CELLS HOLD TOGETHER BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER


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