Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 130419
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1119 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

MINIMAL CHANGES NEED TO THIS FORECAST UPDATE. WILL ADD A NEW HYDRO
AND AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERN LINGERING PCPN CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TONIGHT SURFACE LOW TO TRACK ALONG FAR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ANY PCPN
AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NE FA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION PUSHES IN HOWEVER MAY BE MORE LIKE SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES. CLOUDS...MIXING AND LACK OF SNOW WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES
UP SOME BUT MOST AREAS WILL DROP BLO FREEZING.

UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS.

WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH FA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
PRODUCE SOME -SN/FLURRIES WITH MINIMAL SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL BLO THE FREEZING MARK WITH SOME AREAS
DOWN IN THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

FOLLOWED SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BLO AVERAGE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY COULD BRING A BRIEF AND MINOR MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE BLO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT A VERY MUDDLED PATTERN WILL HOLD OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION PMDEPD ALSO MENTIONS A
HIGH SPREAD/LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE BEHAVIOR OF INDIVIDUAL SYNOPTIC
SYSTEMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. GENERALLY LEFT THE BROADBRUSHED PCPN
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME KNOWING CONFIDENCE IN ANY
IS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH CLOUDS
AND THE NUMEROUS PCPN CHANCES. GUIDANCE TRYING TO SHOW A BIT OF
MODERATION IN TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT FUTURE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY IFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO AROUND 30KT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERING OF CIGS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS AFTER 00Z
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

SPRING SNOW MELT RUNOFF CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE RED RIVER OF THE
NORTH BASIN WITH MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED AT HALLOCK AND OSLO AND
MINOR FLOODING IN OTHER NW MN TRIBS AND ON THE RED FROM GRAND FORKS
NORTH.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT DOWN STREAM OF GRAFTON AND
MINTO ACROSS EASTERN WALSH CONTINUES AS THE PARK AND FOREST RIVERS
RECEDE INTO THE WIDENING RED RIVER BETWEEN OSLO AND DRAYTON.
OSLO...DRAYTON AND PEMBINA CONTINUE TO RISE WITH EXPECTED CRESTS
NEXT WEEK.   FLOOD CREST MOVED THROUGH ROSEAU EARLIER TODAY AND THE
RIVER IS CURRENTLY RECEDING TOWARD MINOR FLOOD STAGE.   THE HALLOCK
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY LAKE BRONSON RELEASES AND
LOCAL SNOW MELT WORKING INTO THE FROZEN RIVER SYSTEM.

THE UNIQUE SITE THIS YEAR CONTINUES TO BE THE SNAKE RIVER AT
ALVARADO AS THIS WINTERS SNOWFALL AND WINDS COMBINED TO CREATE SNOW
DRIFTS BLOCKING THE CHANNEL IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS BETWEEN WARREN AND
ALVARADO.  THIS DAMMING HAS CAUSED THE SNAKE RIVER TO SPILL INTO
AREA FARMLAND AND SLOW ITS PROGRESS FROM WARREN TO ALVARADO.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE AMOUNT OF WATER THAT WILL GO INTO STORAGE
AND THE VOLUME THAT WILL FLOW THRU ALVARADO AND BE MEASURED AT THE
GAGE SITE.  THIS SITUATION HAS BEEN ADDRESSED BY DECREASING
THE EXPECTED STAGE HERE FROM MODERATE TO MINOR LEVELS.

LAST NIGHT`S RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS
OF AN INCH WILL KEEP THE BUFFALO BASIN A BIT HIGHER WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF FLOODING AT DILWORTH.  HAWLEY IS APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD
STAGE...BUT STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER IT WILL ACHIEVE
SAME...THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK
HYDROLOGY...WJB






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