Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 110934
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
334 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Fast moving short wave embedded within upper level jet moving east
along the SD/ND border into central MN early this morning was the
cause for the area of light snow. The light snow area is rapidly
moving east and diminishing a bit. Thus by 12z all but the far
southeastern fcst area will have any -sn mention with clearing
progressing southeast behind the short wave. High pressure will
drop southeast thru SW half of ND today with a west to northwest
wind in the 5 to 12 mph range. Just cold enough temps to keep wind
chills in the advisory range in much of E ND and far NW MN thru
the day. Far SE ND into WC MN and into the eastern fcst area will
not see cold enough sfc temps for wind chills to drop low enough
for headlines. This will happen though in that area after 00z thu.
Since wind chills will remain in adv range most of the day in
current headline area will extend end time to 4 pm (21z) today.
Then at that time when fcst is issued the wind chill advisory can
be expanded for all of the fcst area. Winds will turn southwest
tonight and increase in speed ahead of cold front which will drop
southeast out of Canada.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Potent 500 mb short wave will drop southeast into central Manitoba
by early Thursday and then into NW Ontario. A cold front will drop
south thru the area Thursday with a period of gusty winds in the
20-30 mph range. This combined with cold temps will send wind
chills quite low. Coldest airmass over E ND and NW MN Thu night.
Just enough light to create wind chills into warning range (-40F
and below) for much of the fcst area. All dependent on exact wind
speed and temperature. Did agree with WFO DLH to lower low temps
thu night/early Fri for eastern fcst area as that area tends to
drop quite a bit colder due to more sheltered locations and less
wind. Did include lows in the -30s in that area with -20s
elsewhere. Did include a low pop in Roseau-Warroad-LOW area for
light snow Thu morning as front comes thru as most models have
enough moisture and clouds for a bit of very light snow.

Warm up begins on Friday but will take most of the day to climb to
near zero or a bit above with a south wind. So will still be a
cold day.

For Saturday through Wedndsday...
A mainly tranquil period is forecast as the overall upper level
pattern trends toward a split flow...with the northern stream in
central Ontario and the southern stream across the central and
southern plains. Resultant sfc high pressure will keep conditions
dry through the period...and the change in the pattern should see
temperatures rebounding to near or slightly above seasonal norms.
Otherwise...little precipitation is forecast for the period.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Expanded MVFR conds for most of area as light snow is developing
further north than expected and vsbys in the 1 SM to 3 SM being
reported in northeast ND. May see lower cigs immediately behind
the light snow...increasing to VFR by mid morning. Now expecting
all sites to see some light snow with around one half inch of
fluff probable.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ001>005-
     007-008-013>016-022-023-027-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Hopkins/Riddle
AVIATION...Speicher



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