Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 280446
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT BEMIDJI AND FOSSTON VISIBILITY HAS ALSO
GONE DOWN. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...WE HAVE
SEEN SOME FOG FORMATION AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE JUST A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE SFC TROUGH OVER
SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN STRENGTHENS. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE AS FAR AS VIS...VERY HIT AND MISS. WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT
PATCHY FOG...STARTING IN THE EAST WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
THE LOWEST AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA TOWARDS MORNING.
THINK THAT THE LIGHT SOUTH WIND AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL
KEEP IT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AT THIS POINT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP CONTINUES TO
BE TO THE SOUTH AND MOST OF THE CLOUDS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT AS WE SHOULD GET
A FAIR AMOUNT OF BLOW OFF FROM THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. FOR NOW
KEPT TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

500 MB SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGEST OF THESE MOVING THRU SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SW MINNESOTA INTO NW IOWA. MOISTURE AREA MORE GENEROUS
IN THIS AREA AND THUS RAIN CHANCES HIGHER. ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
WELL SOUTH OF THE ND/SD BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NON-
FACTOR FOR OUR AREA. UPSTREAM SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE ENTERING
SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY IN THE AREA SO NO
RAIN NOTED. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND BY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE
BRING SOME RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO FAR NE ND/NRN MN. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE...ESP WITH ECMWF IN HAVING PRECIP FRI
EVENING BACK INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY (GFK-FAR). THIS SEEMS TOO
MUCH AS STRENGTH OF WAVE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION. FOR
THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES WHERE PREV FCSTS HAVE HAD
THEM...HIGHEST OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND...WITH WARMEST
DAY ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. LOOK FOR 80S ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY....WITH AROUND 90 WEST OF THE RED RIVER LIKELY SUNDAY
WITH A BIT BETTER SFC GRADIENT ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF 28-30C AT
850 MB SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST ND.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR ALL THE CONUS MINUS THE PAC NW. ALMOST
DAILY SLGT CHC/CHC POPS FOR POSSIBLE WEAK SFC TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE IN MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW. POTENTIAL LOW FOR WIDE
SPREAD RAIN. 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS AND BRINGS THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA FOR WED
AND THURS...PUSHING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VIS AT KBJI HAS GONE DOWN TO 1/2SM. FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND VIS IN
AND OUT...SO HAVE A TEMPO GROUP AND THEN GOING UP TO 1SM BY
09Z...BUT WILL HAVE TO ADJUST AS THERE WILL BE A LOT OF VARIATION
IN A SHORT PERIOD. FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES BUT PATCHY NATURE MAKES IT UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL IMPACT A
PARTICULAR TAF SITE. WILL KEEP IT OUT AND AMEND AS NEEDED. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND GUST TO 20 KTS AT
TIMES...THEN DIMINISH DOWN TO LESS THAN 10KTS WITH A SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT KDVL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR



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