Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 230900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY...AS
THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN CONTINUES. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO PREFERENCE THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND HIGHS WARMING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR ALL AREAS WITH A
WARM START THIS MORNING...AND FAVORABLE SW SFC WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL STAY MILD WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AT 850MB
OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...TEMPS SHOULD WARM EVEN WARMER WITH SOME AREAS REACHING
70 WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS. THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING NORTH IN CANADA...AND SOME MID LEVEL COOLING BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE A DEEP ADIABATIC LAYER UP TO
NEARLY 800MB AND 40KT TO MIX. THEREFORE...EXPECT A WINDY AFTERNOON
IN AT LEAST THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH AND GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS A BIT
COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WED...A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA IS REPLACED BY A FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER SOUTHERN
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ON MON AND DECREASED A DEGREE
OR TWO ON TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS ON BACK EDGE OF DEPARTING RAIN BAND WILL
EXIT FA TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO LEAVING THE FA VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
AT THIS POINT ON FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY.
MAINTAINED MENTION AT BJI LEAVING REMAINDER FOG FREE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER






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