Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 131248
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
648 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Getting reports of freezing drizzle up in the Roseau and Warroad
area with roads becoming icy. Expanded the winter weather advisory
into this area. Dry layer aloft will become saturated over the
next few hours and as such the introduction of ice nuclei will
transition freezing drizzle to snow by noon.

Freezing drizzle and light snow also being observed/reported
within the Red River Valley, leading to additional impacts. Roads
have already become frozen with the quick drop in temperatures.
Morning commute will not be fun.

Further to the west, NDOT reporting scattered ice on the roads.
Received a report of solid slippery roads until around
Cooperstown, and then scattered ice further west. With these
reports, think that the transition from winter weather advisory to
wind advisory headline is still a good area, although travel will
still be hazardous in some areas (plus, no additional winter
weather expected in this area).

The strongest push of cold air advection is now south of the
region, and will be able to allow the high wind warning to expire
at 7am. The next push of cold air advection does not appear to be
as strong, but should be enough to get wind speeds back to
advisory criteria. Still not sure about snow showers today, but
possibility exists.

UPDATE Issued at 538 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Fargo ASOS gusted to 63 mph. Strong surge of cold air advection
efficiently mixing 50+ knot winds to the surface. Issued a high
wind warning for the next couple hours as this surge of cold air
advection is expected to continue moving south/southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Surface low is located near Alexandria (10z) and will continue to
propagate southeast. Associated precipitation is about to exit the
region. Current air/road temperatures suggest mainly rain within
and west of the valley, with freezing rain east of the valley.
With that said, had a situation here at the office in Grand Forks
where the rain occurred with air temperature above freezing while
road temperatures where below freezing. We began with icy
sidewalks, which became wet/slushy. These wet/slushy sidewalks
are now icy as the temperature has quickly dropped into the mid
20s. Latest RAP guidance indicates a push of strong cold air
advection pushing southward through the Red River Valley right
behind the precipitation which is causing any wet/slushy roads to
quickly freeze. Any wet/slushy roads across the southern Red River
valley should quickly freeze this morning as well. The morning
commute will be hazardous. There is another push of cold air
advection down the valley again later this morning and afternoon
with the passage of another upper level wave. This should
reinforce mixing of winds aloft to the surface and continue to
expect wind advisory criteria. The main question will revolve
around any additional winter weather impacts. Still think the
potential exists for snow showers along and east of the valley,
which combined with strong winds may reduce visibility at times.

The next clipper brings snow chances to central/eastern North
Dakota later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Upper air pattern continues with the northwest flow aloft. Short
waves continue to roll over the upper ridge over western North
America and drop into the Northern Plains. Also short waves will
drop south from Northern Canada and mainly move east of the forecast
area. However they may affect the far eastern zones. One such short
wave may affect the northeast zones Thu afternoon. Next upper level
trough over the eastern Pacific will approach the forecast area on
Fri. Models generally agree on warm advection precip for Fri and
upper level system to affect the area Sat.

Long wave pattern maintains a long wave ridge over the eastern
Pacific or the West Coast. Long wave trough remains over eastern
Canada and the northeast US. Upper level pattern becomes more zonal
on Mon but does re-amplify somewhat on Tue. GFS and ECMWF were in
reasonable agreement through Mon. The ECMWF becomes a faster
solution thereafter.

High temperatures were increased two to three degrees for Sat and
increased a degree for Mon. Little change to temps for Sun and Tue
from yesterdays forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday)
Issued at 538 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Windy with IFR/MVFR conditions, and possibly freezing drizzle or
very light snow. conditions expected to improve later this
afternoon.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
 NDZ008- 016-027-029-030-039-053.

     Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for
     MNZ013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

     High Wind Warning until 7 AM CST this morning for MNZ003-029-030-
     040.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
     MNZ001>004-007-029-030-040.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ005-008.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JR



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