Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 180242

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
942 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Issued at 942 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Adjusted sky cover upward across the northern counties as there
continues to be quite a bit of cirrus from the system to the
south. The high clouds will eventually diminish before sunrise.
Winds will stay up and keep us mixed, but will continue to advect
dry and cooler air in from Canada. Short range models continue to
keep temps in the Devils Lake Basin falling into the mid 30s, so
will keep the frost advisory going.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Potent upper low creating severe weather across the central plains
will continue to lift to the northeast across Iowa and into
Wisconsin. Its northern edge of rain will continue to skirt the
southeastern portions of the forecast area. CAM guidance limits
the precip south of a Lisbon to Detroit Lakes to Bemidji line
this evening and then slides to the southeast overnight.

Another challenge for tonight and into tomorrow will be clearing
skies and frost potential across the Devils Lake basin. Colder and
drier airmass from Canadian high pressure continues work into the
northern plains. North to northeast winds with gusts to around
30kts drying out the SFC layer with upper 30s dewpoints along the
Canada/US border. This drier air along with decreasing winds and
eventually clearing skies will allow temps to fall into the mid
30s across the Devils Lake basin thus the frost advisory through
9am tomorrow. The rest of the forecast area will see more clouds
and stronger winds overnight keeping temps around 40. Daytime
temps rebound with solar to near 60F with winds much less than
today in the 10 to 15kts range.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Thursday night through Friday...High pressure and upper level
ridging move along the International border, bringing in dry air
aloft and continued cool weather. Frost will be a concern Thursday
night into early Friday with light winds, mostly clear skies, and
dry air present, along with lows near or just a few degrees above
the freezing mark. Highs Friday will be in the upper 50s to 60s with
cloud cover increasing during the day in the southern zones.

Friday night through Sunday...As a low pressure system moves from
eastern Kansas into southern Minnesota/Wisconsin, cloud cover,
winds, and rain chances will increase for the weekend, especially
the southern and eastern zones, due to wraparound precipitation on
the northwest side of the system. Model confidence is improving
regarding precipitation chances across the Red River valley Saturday
with better agreement from the Euro/GFS solutions. Model confidence
is much lower Saturday night and Sunday, but at this time
precipitation chances are expected in northwest and west central
Minnesota, lagging behind the low as it moves slowly toward the
Great Lakes.

For early next week, model confidence is quite low but a general
consensus indicates that the previously mentioned system will stall
out over the Great Lakes. As a series of upper disturbances swing
through the Northern and Central Plains, the weather pattern looks
to be more active, and northerly flow aloft will bring cooler
temperatures, starting off the week slightly below normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Some 2500-3500 ft ceilings linger over KFAR and KBJI but other TAF
sites have scattered out. Think that KFAR should see ceilings
increase later tonight as the low pressure system to the south
pulls further away from the area, while KBJI will see MVFR
conditions until tomorrow morning. All sites should be VFR by the
end of the period. Winds will continue to be fairly breezy
overnight, with sustained speeds out of the north at 15 to 20 kts
and higher gusts remaining overnight. Winds will decrease a small
amount by tomorrow but still be fairly breezy with gusts to 20


ND...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for NDZ006-007-014-



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