Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 181641

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1041 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Issued at 1041 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Looking outside there is cloud cover moving in from the West.
Satellite imagery shows cloud cover moving in over northern
Minnesota as well, impacting the northeast forecast area. As a
result, updated the sky forecast for today from mostly sunny to
mostly cloudy based on satellite imagery. Expect cloud cover to
remain throughout the day.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

A very well developed short wave bringing some light snow and
possibly a mix to parts of NW MN early this morning will quickly
move out of the FA. Impacts may include some patchy icy roads
during the morning commute. Otherwise impacts today are minor
with light winds and relatively warm temps. Highs in the low to
mid 30s. Clouds will be on the increase this evening and into the
overnight with low level WAA and 300mb jet streak nosing over the
northern plains. After 06Z 700mb baroclinic zone/frontogenesis
enters the Devils Lake basin providing enhance elevated lift. Even
though model soundings indicate a dry low layer went ahead and
included a slight chance for freezing rain or mix for the midnight
to 6am Friday morning time frame.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

12Z Fri-12Z Wed

Split flow will be over the area with short wave moving though the
northern stream Fri. Then an upper trough off the CA coast will move
into the Southern Plains by 12Z Sun.

Upper level trough over BC will approach the area Fri. Very light
precipitation is expected with the trough mainly in the northern Red
River Valley. Also an upper level jet will nose into the area Fri.
Next upper level system will affect the the southern Red River
Valley for Sat night. The Sat night system will be more significant.


Upper air pattern remain quite progressive. Longwave low amplitude
upper level ridge over the western US will build a bit through the
period while a longwave trough over northeast Canada will deepen a
bit and extend toward the central and southern US. Result is a low
amplitude ridge/trough over western North America/central and
eastern North America respectively.

High temperatures were increased a degree for Sun. Little change to
Mon. Tue highs were decreased about a degree and Wed highs were
increased two to four degrees from yesterdays forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 648 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Band of MVFR stratus this morning extends across the TVF to BJI
TAF sites. Band will slowly slide to the east and south. Expecting
improvement late this morning or early afternoon. Meanwhile high
cirrus will overspread the forecast area from west to east.




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