000
FXUS63 KFGF 192034
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
334 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Latest HRRR which has performed poorly with this event is finally
catching on the idea of little activity going in in our area as
the frontal boundary approaches from central ND. Quite a bit of
subsidence behind the main short wave trough is east of our area
inhibiting lift despite modest temp recover into the 75-80 range
in E ND and dew pts in the mid 60s. LAPS has cape into the
1500-2000 j/kg range into the RRV at 19z due to the temp/dew pt
combination and relative lack of capping, but very little in the
way of upper level support to get things going. Still though with
unstable airmass thru 00z will hang on to some low pops...and into
03z in the far southeastern fcst area. Severe risk is very
low...though updated day 1 SPC outlook kept far south in slight
risk. Clearing overnight. Mostly sunny Thursday with temps close
to the normal values and light winds as well due to high pressure
moving in.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Thursday night into Friday morning will see a short wave riding
over the 500 mb ridge and into the area developing tstms in W ND
late Thu aftn/eve and moving east-northeast into S Manitoba and
central/ern ND overnight. Lingering precip into Fri AM. Appears
best risk area for storms is near or just north of the Intl
border. Main frontal bounday will move through later Friday or
Friday night with models in rather poor agreement with timing and
when best chc of storms will occur. Most due have it Fri night
though and some severe risk is present. Day 3 SPC has much of the
area in marginal or slight risk. Upper level trough moves thru
Saturday with some chances for showers and t-storms, mainly north
and east.

Sunday through Wednesday...

The end of the weekend and start of the new work week looks to be
dry and quiet with surface high pressure taking hold of the region.
Cooler northerly flow following Saturday`s system should keep
temperatures down in the 70s for Sunday, even with some sunshine,
before warming back closer to 80 for Monday.

Models are in pretty decent agreement regarding the return of
precipitation chances late Monday and continuing through the end of
the period as temperatures warm back near normal values in the low
80s or so.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

VFR anticipated thru the pd. Cloud bases remain aoa 8k ft. Early
aftn winds the main issue as localized wind gusts from the south
to 20-30 kts at times on the north edge of the stratiform area
moving thru wc MN early aftn.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Lee/Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle