Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1237 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Early afternoon update focuses on sky and POP trends. Have reduced
POPs for measurable precip over the northern valley and kept
highest chances over northeastern zones. With radar showing some
weak development vcnty Fargo, will add sprinkles for eastern and
northeast ND, however do not expect much in the way of measurable
precip. Activity should begin to decrease by 23Z. Also reduced
temps over the eastern zones per CONSSHORT guidance...which makes
sense considering current temps and thickest clouds over that

UPDATE Issued at 950 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Minor updates needed to sky grids for aviation forecast updates.
Cloudy and overcast will continue through most of the day and keep
heating to a minimum. POP grids may be a bit overdone right now,
as only weak returns on radar and limited ground truth however
will evaluate over next hour before making any changes as light
showers or drizzle possible.

UPDATE Issued at 656 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Stratocu has overspread all but the far southeastern fcst area at
12z. As expected a few showers are moving southeast into the
northern fcst area.  This handled well by current fcst.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

500 mb low moving east of Winnipeg at 08z. 500 mb trough, sfc
trough and area of clouds moving southeast behind the departing
upper low. Clouds will spread east-southeast over most of the area
today, clearing from the northwest late today into this evening.
Spotty showers expected mainly along and north of Hwy 2...NE ND
this morning and NW MN this afternoon.

Clearing tonight with lows 45-50.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Sunshine to give way to increasing mid and high level cloud cover
Friday as next short wave trough moves into the area. Latest model
runs indicate moisture with this system not as great as previous
days had advertised. But there will be some showers and maybe a
thunderstorm or two move into the area Friday late afternoon,
Friday night and Saturday.

Sunday to Wednesday...Zonal 500mb flow will begin the next week with
broad ridging towards mid week. As a result seasonally warm temps
are expected with highs in the low 80s for much of the area. There
will be a couple chances for rain with weak impulses in the rather
weak flow aloft...not surprising for this time of year. The first
will be Monday night into Tuesday and then again Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Predominant MVFR conds over northwest MN with tempo MVFR within
and west of the valley. All sites should begin to improve by 23Z
(DVL sooner).  Expect VFR conds by late evening at all sites.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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