169
FXUS63 KFGF 291758
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1258 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Upper level ridge will remain over the area today with low level
moisture trapped under an inversion.  Tweaked temps up a bit for the
afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Problems with models handling low level moisture and clouds over the
area this morning. Models initialized poorly with 850 dewpoint
depressions at BIS this morning and may be due to an anonymously low
850 hpa dewpoint at BIS 00Z yesterday. Observed soundings indicate
an inversion at or above 850 hpa. Tweaked sky conditions for
today.

UPDATE Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Darn clouds continue to expand west. Updated to account for
current cloud location...and delayed clearing into the evening
hours. Confidence was high enough to lower Max temps east of the
valley a few degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Impacts will be minimal. Main concern will be cloud trends and the
affect on temperature. 00z models in good agreement and will use a
blend for details. Ridging will remain in place...and for the most
part the CONUS synoptic pattern will change very little. An area
of clouds remain to the east of the Red River Valley...and
considering the blocking nature of the atmosphere see little
chance for clearing until day time heating has an effect. Delayed
the clearing until late afternoon...which may need to be revised
for tonight. Otherwise...another dry period with temperatures
slightly warmer than yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Friday-Saturday...Little change expected to the synoptic pattern
from the short term period...except possible a bit stronger return
flow. This increased mixing should be able to scour out any lower
clouds that remain early Friday morning. Given this stronger
return flow...expect temperatures above normal (max temps around
70F...min temps in the 40s). Dry weather will continue.

Sunday-Wednesday...An active weather pattern returns to the area
late in the weekend and will continue through midweek. Long term
models continue to come into better agreement up until near the
end of the forecast period.

The region starts out in southwest flow aloft between an upper
trough coming onshore the west coast and an upper low finally
beginning to move out of the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Ridge axis
across the area will slowly move eastward late in the weekend with
Sunday possibly being the last dry day for the majority of the area.

As the upper low approaches, precipitation chances will spread from
west to east across the area through midweek. The 00z runs of the
GFS and ECMWF have slowed down the progression of the low as
compared to previous runs. Therefore, tried to depict this in the
PoP grids with precipitation chances being confined to the Red River
Valley and westward through Monday, spread eastward on Tuesday, and
linger through the end of the period as the low moves across the
Northern Plains.

Above average temperatures will continue with highs in the upper
60s/low 70s with mild lows in the 50s through Tuesday before a
cooldown towards the tail end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Visible satellite loop indicated a mostly cloudy sky over MN side.
However holes were developing northwest of a line from BDE to FAR.
Cellular clouds were developing over eastern ND over the holes in
northwest MN. Expect much of the area to cloud up this afternoon.
Cigs were around 35 to 40 hundred ft. Expect cigs to remains VFR
this afternoon. Clouds should dissipate on the ND side and over far
northwest MN this evening. Clouds should hang on the rest of
northwest MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hoppes
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/Lee
AVIATION...Hoppes