Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 090400
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1000 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Model cross section indicated drying to occur at mid levels. Water
vapor loop indicated upper level trough from the central MAN/SASK
border to the Red River. Northwest flow aloft will continue over the
area. Surface high pressure ridge will extend from the SASK/ALTA
border to western ND by 12Z Fri. Fog loop and surface obs shows some
clearing over the far west and southwest counties. Also a hole was
over Roseau and eastern Marshall counties. Will decrease low temp
overnight.

Wind chill advisory remains in effect for the Devils Lake basin for
tonight. Added Steele county to the advisory.


UPDATE Issued at 700 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Water vapor loop indicated a short wave trough extending from the
central MAN/SASK border into eastern ND. Tweaked pops and winds for
tonight. No other changes made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Main impacts/challenges through the short term will be
temperatures and wind chill potential overnight into Friday
morning.

Actually, global models handling current shsn area better than
the high resolution models which are generally dry. As weak mid
level short wave shifts eastward overnight any lingering -sn
should shift east of the Red River which current radar trends
indicating. Kept higher chance pops going east of the river
through mid evening and later shifts can adjust if necessary.

Once we get substantial snow cover temperatures are always a
challenge and highly dependent on cloud cover. Clearing spreading
slowly east through the western forecast area however guidance
stalls out clearing before reaching the valley region. Cold
advection continues overnight and with winds diminishing,fresh
snow, and some degree of clearing, the western forecast area will
cool down the most. There will be just enough wind that if skies
remain clear wind chill criteria will be met and will issue a wind
chill advisory for this area. Farther east clouds and mixing will
hold temperatures up.

Surface high pressure will continue to build slowly east through
the day so winds should be lighter. Cold advection levels off
however with cold column in place and colder start temperatures
will show minimal recovery in the single digits above and below
average.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Main forecast concern Friday night will be how cold the overnight
lows will be. If skies completely clear, look for temperatures to be
around the low 20s below zero. However, right now some clouds
lingering are not out of the question, so kept lows around the mid
teens below zero. Next area of concern is the system coming through
midday Saturday through Sunday. The global models have the main
swath of snow brushing the southern CWA with a few inches. The NAM
has a further north solution, but that seems to be an outlier right
now. We will lean towards the southern solutions for now, but will
continue to monitor. Looking to early next week, a secondary trough
will bring more cold air to the region. Temperatures will remain
well below seasonal averages throughout the extended period.
Wednesday and Thursday look fairly quiet with northwest flow aloft,
but still cold.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 700 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

An area of MVFR conditions extended from northeast ND to west
central MN. Some IFR conditions were embedded within the MVFR area.
Expect MVFR area to slowly shift into northwest MN by morning.
Mostly VFR conditions are expected by late Fri afternoon.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Friday for NDZ006-007-014-015-
     024-026-028-029-038-054.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hoppes
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Hoppes


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