Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 150543
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1143 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

no additional changes.

UPDATE Issued at 950 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Still getting many reports of near zero vsby in the immediate Red
River valley as wind gusts continue at times to 35 mph. Grand
Forks airport had a wind gust to 41 mph just recently. Just too
much wind and too much fluffy snow to blow around to continue
areas of blowing snow in open country, enough to reduce vsby
enough for the public to comment on the poor travel. Looking at
925 mb winds and near stalled out system to our east I cant see
any changes thru Monday morning, so will extend the winter wx adv
for blowing snow thru 18z mon to coincide with wind chill
expiration....though likely the wind chill part will need to be
extended beyond that. But after 18z the 925 mb wind reduce quite a
bit thru 00z tues.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Areas of light snow linger along and southeast of a cold frontal
band from NBDE-KBJI-KFFM-KABR. That cold front will steadily push
south-eastward through the late afternoon and continue across
southeastern MN duirng the evening hours.

A tight pressure gradient and strong winds behind the front will
continue to cause blowing and drifting snow issues along the
central Red River Valley corridor into early evening... especially
where recent snowfall has been greatest. Winds will taper off a
bit after sunset but persist at 15g25 mph through mosy of the
overnight period and well into Monday.

The H5 low pressure center and trof axis edges well east of the
FA by early evening, so skies should continue to scattered out
throughout the evening... allowing for significant cold advection
and bitter cold wind chill temperatures... especially through
eastern ND and the Red River Valley corridor. Patchy Low clouds
may persist into early morning over northcentral MN... so coldest
temps there will likely be around mid morning.

Sunday should see fair skies but stout north winds and quite cold
daytime highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

For Monday night through Tuesday morning, frigid weather and
dangerous wind chills commence as an Arctic airmass and high
pressure meander through the Dakotas. This strength of this surface
high pressure is at an extreme with respect to the 30-year
climatology, 3 standard deviations from a mean similar system this
time of year. This will yield another night of frigid temperatures
with lows in the teens to twenties below zero. With high pressure
building through to the west and southwest, expect a light north
wind to aid wind chill, yielding persistent wind chills in the 30s
to 50s below zero through Tuesday morning.

Early in the week, split flow aloft and a high amplitude upper ridge
in the West will filter in drier air and thus dry weather. Starting
Tuesday, the recent roller coaster of temperatures begins another
ascent, as return flow develops and the upper ridge progresses into
the Plains. Tuesday will see a return to highs in the single digits
on either side of the zero marker. By Wednesday, daytime highs will
reach the teens to 20s above zero, with increasing warmth each day
toward the end of the week. By Friday, daytime highs are expected to
hover around the freezing mark. Heading into the weekend, split flow
aloft begins to converge, allowing for a more active weather pattern
across the Plains and perhaps some snow chances for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Gusty NNW winds in the RRV will mean continued vsby and ceiling
fluncutations at GFK/FAR thru Monday. Mainly IFR vsbys and MVFR
cigs at both of those sites thru 18z Mon. Outside of the RRV a bit
less wind and trending more VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Monday for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for NDZ008-016-027-
     029-030-039.

MN...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Monday for MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>015-022-027-029>031-040.

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Monday for MNZ006-009-016-017-
     023-024-028-032.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for MNZ001>004-007-
     013>015.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...Riddle


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