Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 091824

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1224 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Issued at 1224 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Slowed the progression of clouds down further as there has been
not much eastward movement of the cloud band across the RRV. Some
flurries are hanging on in the east so will continue to keep a
mention going for a few more hours this afternoon. Temps continue
to slowly rise, although they remain below zero in the Devils Lake
Basin. Langdon is still hanging onto wind chill advisory criteria
but it is marginal and there should continue to be a rise of a few
more degrees this afternoon. Have let the advisory expire but will
probably need a new one for tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 927 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Tweaked cloud cover a bit as the clouds have been slow to move out
of the Red River Valley. There have also been a few flurry
reports at KTVF and KBJI, so have a mention in there for the rest
of the morning. Temps will not recover too much, so continued with
highs from negative single digits west to positive single digits


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Cloud cover, temperatures, and wind chills the main
concerns/challenges. 00z model guidance is in decent agreement
with synoptic features. Satellite imagery indicates clearing
across the Devils Lake basin with temperatures responding colder.
Wind chill advisory area seems reasonable for early this morning.

Surface ridging continues to build into the region today, and with
minimal mixing expect temperatures in the single digits
below/above zero (mainly dependent on morning lows with a 5F- 10F
rise expected).

Upstream observations indicate clear sky and temperatures less
than -20F under the sfc high. These observations are closest to
CMC guidance (which typically performs best in these conditions
with fresh snow cover and light winds/clear sky). Main question is
sky cover, so only trended toward the CMC solution. Wind chill
advisories may again be needed for Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Saturday-Sunday...Kind of a complicated upper level pattern and
models are having difficulty finding which upper level features
will be key. All guidance continues to indicate heaviest snow
south of the region. With that said, the ECMWF and GFS both have
resolved an upper level shortwave that will propagate through the
region later Saturday and Sunday. The CMC also has this feature
but is a bit quicker, while the NAM is the outlier not showing
this feature at all. However the details with timing play out,
given zonal flow aloft feel confident enough to say that a high
PoP/low QPF scenario appears likely. Raised PoPs into the likely
category where the ECMWF and GFS both agree on measurable QPF.
Very high snow ratios expected (>20:1), which would lead to a
longer duration 1-3 inches by Sunday evening. Winds will be
relatively light, so the main impact should be limited to light
snow on roadways.

Monday-Thursday...This time frame will feature a 500mb low
dropping from northern Canada southeast toward James Bay. This
essentially leaves the FA in northwest flow aloft throughout the
entire period. Temperatures will likely see some day to day
fluctuation, but overall they will continue to remain cold. In this
type of pattern, cloud cover will play a factor in how cold these
temperatures can get. Wind speeds will also be a factor. At this
point, these wind speeds do not look to become very strong and
clouds are difficult to forecast out that far. However, if the winds
can stay steady enough, wind chills could be an issue during some
of the overnight periods. Otherwise, there could also be a few
periods with light snow or flurries, but no significant systems in


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

MVFR cloud deck over the Red River Valley and western MN has been
slow to move east, although skies just finally started to clear at
KFAR in the last half an hour. Have KGFK going VFR for a short
time this evening, but think the eastern two TAF sites will
remain MVFR throughout the period. With more clouds coming down
out of Canada even KDVL`s VFR status is in question later on this
evening and into the overnight. Leaned towards the more
pessimistic guidance and have all sites going MVFR towards the
early morning hours. The western TAF sites should see some
recovery to VFR by mid day tomorrow. Winds be out of the west
northwest at 8 to 12 this afternoon but will become light and
variable overnight.




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