Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231137 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
637 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Issued at 637 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Patchy fog in the Fosston-Bemidji-Park Rapids area will improve
over the next few hours as mixing begins. Adjusted cloud cover and
pops slightly but no significant changes.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

A nearby upper low will continue bringing isolated to scattered
showers and sprinkles today as it digs south through Minnesota into
Iowa. Showers will mainly affect southeast North Dakota and west
central Minnesota this morning and afternoon and will begin to
clear out this afternoon from northwest to southeast. Rain totals
today will be a tenth of an inch or less. Today will be a bit
warmer than Monday in the northern valley, where cloudy skies will
begin to clear out, but may not feel much warmer with a north
wind at 10 to 20 mph. Highs will range from the 50s in the
southern valley to the 60s in the northern valley. Winds will
decrease tonight as high pressure moves in. Lows tonight will be
mostly in the 40s, but may dip into the 30s in parts of west
central and northwest Minnesota.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

An upper ridge builds into the Dakotas from the west overnight,
bringing warmer and dry conditions for Wednesday. Highs Wednesday
will be in the 60s to lower 70s, but conditions will be a bit breezy
with south/southeast winds gusting 20 to 30 mph.

For Thursday and Thursday night, a strong stacked surface and upper
low in southern Saskatchewan slowly drifts northeastward, bring
southerly flow and increased low level moisture into the Northern
Plains. Thursday will be breezy with increased chances for showers,
mainly in the Devils Lake basin. Behind the associated surface
front moving eastward through the area during the afternoon and
evening, winds will shift from south to west and rain chances will

For Friday through Monday, a long wave upper ridge off the west
coast shifts east to the west coast and builds through the period.
Broad long wave trough over the Northern Plains also shifts east
to the western Great Lakes and sharpens through the period.

The GFS was a faster and a farther southern solution than the ECMWF.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF were trending faster over the last couple
model runs.

Upper level low pressure system over southern Canada Fri will slow
down and plod across the Northern Plains from Fri through at least
Sun. Upper low will produce scattered showers/thunder similar to the
current system over the area.

Little change to high temperatures for Fri, Sat, and Sun. Mondays
high are about a degree lower than the previous model run.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

MVFR and IFR cigs across the area as scattered showers move
through this morning. LIFR cigs/MVFR vsbys near BJI for the next
few hours, improving to MVFR cigs/VFR vsbys early this afternoon.
Cigs and vsbys should improve to VFR between mid morning and mid
day across much of the area as upper level system moves away to
the south. Expect some gusts up to 25 kts today. As high pressure
moves in overnight, north winds will become light variable and
cigs will lift.




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