Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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918
FXUS63 KFGF 210435
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1035 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Minor updates tonight for the temperature curve generally cooling
a few degrees zones east of the valley...as they are already
cooler than prev fcst curve indicated. May reach wind chill adv
criteria in NW MN for an hour or two as winds p/u tomorrow morning
but very short lived and borderline, so no plans to expand
spatially current advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Cloud cover will continue to move out of the area for the rest of
the afternoon, with only a few thin streamer clouds remaining.
Winds will diminish slightly but will remain steady overnight.
This, combined with low temperatures between 5 below and 10
below, will lead to borderline Wind Chill Advisory criteria across
the region, with wind chills mostly between -20 and -30. Areas
that don`t get quite as cold may not meet the -25 criteria for the
advisory, but it will be a chilly night regardless. Highs
tomorrow will be in the teens with mostly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Broad southwesterly flow aloft is expected to continue through the
remainder of this week with a synoptic pattern shift to a more
progressive series of shortwave troughs by the weekend.

A surface high is expected to build over the northern Plains through
mid week, bringing calm and seasonal weather. Southerly winds return
for Thursday allowing temperatures to warm to the twenties. A weak
upper level disturbance is expected to propagate into the Plains
Thursday night into Friday. As this occurs weak cyclogenesis over
the KS/NE/CO region and the placement of a surface high over the
northeastern US will allow for warm return flow into the eastern
northern Plains. The approach of the weak shortwave will act to
enhance isentropic lift along a weak warm frontal boundary. This
will bring snow chances across much of southern MN, eastern SD, and
far southeastern ND. With only weak upper level forcing for ascent
and little frontogenetical forcing snow amounts are expected to be
low with the best chance for any accumulating snow across western to
northern Minnesota Thursday night into Friday morning.

Temperatures will remain seasonal for the end of the week and into
the weekend with low snow chances Saturday and Sunday across the
region. Light snow chances will be possible over the weekend as weak
upper level disturbances propagate through the region, however no
major winter weather impacts are anticipated at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1033 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

A small area of 2500 to 3500 ft cigs over Rugby area moving into
vcnty of DVL but trajectory suggests it may sink south. Will
introduce a tempo group from 05Z to 08Z. VFR otherwise with light
westerlies thorugh TAF periods. See prev discussion on morning
frost potential.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...Godon/Wilson
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...Speicher



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