Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 281756
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1256 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Fog has finally lifted across the southern counties, so let the
advisory expire on time at noon. Much of the stratus has also been
dissipating over that area, although with a late start on heating
and higher clouds moving in from the west temps may not make it as
high as originally expected. Lowered highs a couple of degrees but
heating will be rapid as low clouds dissipate so still think they
will make the low to mid 50s. Further east over west central MN,
temps have already reached the 50s and could hit the 60 mark or
slightly above later today, so also bumped up highs a tad in that
area. Temps across the far north will be impacted by high clouds
and lingering snow, but should still get above yesterday`s
readings and into the lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Dense fog and low clouds continue to be the main forecast
challenges. The area of dense fog is currently along and south of
a line from Maddock to Cooperstown ND to Ada MN, and is slowly
moving southward. Satellite imagery shows there are already
portions of Griggs/Steele/Traill counties that are clearing out,
while the fog is moving into the far southern Red River Valley
south of Wahpeton. So unlike last night, the fog may not be a long
term feature. As far as the clouds go, one clear hole has formed
from Rugby to Lakota to Cooperstown. There also appears to be
less cloud cover east of the Red River Valley. A few showers were
located just north of Grand Forks, but they finally appear to be
shrinking in coverage, so do not plan to mention any showers with
the 4 am forecast issuance. Models today shrink the fog from north
to south and also push it to the west. If this happens there will
be a lot more sun and warming along the Red River Valley and
points to the east, with more uncertainty to the west. Winds still
look to remain pretty weak today into tonight, but for once the
models are not anticipating much fog tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The main question for Wednesday through Thursday night will be
whether any light pcpn will affect the far western or northern FA.
Guidance threw in some low pcpn chances for these areas, but if
anything falls it will be minimal. Sfc winds finally look to
increase a little Wednesday into Thursday too. Nothing too
substantial, but probably enough to keep the fog at bay.

The best chance for precipitation of the week looks to arrive on
Friday and linger into the early part of the weekend. Models
continue to depict a deep upper low coming out of the Four Corners
region and propagating across the southern CONUS while a decent
shortwave moves through the northern stream of the continued split
flow pattern, impacting the Northern Plains. Regardless, impacts
should be minimal as precipitation looks to be fairly light and
mostly rain with maybe a little bit of snow mixing in late Friday
night/early Saturday before exiting to the east.

Once the late week system exits, brief upper ridging looks to build
in for the remainder of the weekend. A weak cold front/wind shift
looks to move through the area on Saturday which will briefly keep
high temperatures just a bit cooler than the end of the work week
(upper 40s/low 50s) but will quickly warm back into the mid to upper
50s for Sunday.

Chances then increase for a more active pattern returning to the
area for next week. However, models continue to vary considerably so
not a lot of confidence at this point. Model blend precipitation
chances (mostly slight chance to chance) on and off for the first
half of the work week appear reasonable with above normal
temperatures continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Fog and stratus have finally dissipated over the forecast area, so
all sites are VFR with increasing high clouds. A few of the model
runs develop fog and stratus again in the KFAR area overnight.
However, with increasing high clouds again and southeasterly winds
starting to pick up, think that chances of IFR or lower will be
less than previous nights. Will keep all sites VFR throughout the
period for now but will monitor for future forecasts. The winds
will be fairly light and coming around from the northeast to the
southeast and picking up to around 10 kts by the end of the
period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Impacts from snow melt runoff will begin to make its way into the
Grafton and Pembina areas this week. River levels are expected to
continue to quickly rise at Grafton into major levels with an
expected crest between 14.5 and 15.5 feet. Moderate flooding is
expected by the end of the week at Pembina as northern valley
tributaries combine to push the river into the 43 to 45 foot
range late this week.

Streams are beginning to show some response across the Devils Lake
basin and along the Pembina River due to field runoff. Most
culverts remain frozen however they should begin to slowly open
as the temperatures remain above freezing for all but a few hours
in the morning. As a result continued slow rises are expected on
the Pembina River and across the coulees and streams of the Devils
Lake basin.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Lee
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...JK


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