Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 220239
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
939 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Last cell now south of Fosston moving SE and should depart area by
11 PM. One last grid update to fine tune POPs over southern
Clearwater co. No other changes to fcst planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Rain chances in the near term and temperatures main challenge
through the short term. Cold front entering the nw FA at this time
and will propagate east clearing the eastern FA by midnight. Area
of shra continue along and ahead of boundary mainly across the
northern half of the region. Instability Minimal so only an ocnl
ltg strike expected. High resolution model guidance in pretty
good agreement that showers should clear the east from 10Pm to
midnight. The clearing combined with drier low level air moving in
and cold advection should allow temperatures to drop into the 40s
to lower 50s.

High pressure will build into the FA tomorrow for a sunny and
breezy day with temperatures running a bit below average.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

(Tue night - Thu)

Another short wave will move southeast out of Canada for Wed
afternoon looking to produce showers mainly over the MN side. At the
surface, it looks like more of a backdoor cold front scenario with
minimal CAPE (maybe 500 J/kg far southeast) and thickness packing
from north to south. As indicated, any thunder should be
reserved for the southeast tip of the forecast area. Thu will
feature dry easterly flow around a Manitoba/western Ontario high
with resulting sunny and seasonally cool temps.

(Fri through Mon)

Models are in decent agreement moving the upper ridge eastward and
out of the area by Friday afternoon, with increasing precipitation
chances by later on Friday. Upper low and strongest forcing will be
well north into Canada, which leads to some uncertainty regarding
timing and location of any forcing mechanisms across the northern
plains of the USA. Precipitation chances increase by later Friday
into Sat with good chances for drier weather Sun and Mon as
northwest flow follows upper wave passage. Potential impacts appear
to be very low at this point. Slightly below normal temperatures to
continue through the period with highs in the 70s and lows in the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

VFR conditions through the period. Mentioned a brief shra at GFK
but will not limit cigs or vsby.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...Voelker



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