Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 010442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SFC/500 MB LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF MINOT MOVING NORTH. SHOWERS
MOSTLY CONCENTRATED JUST WEST OF DVL REGION ON EDGE OF FCST AREA
WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN REPORTED OVER FCST AREA (MAINLY
SPRINKLES). DRY SLOT (AT LEAST IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE)
MOVING INTO SE ND AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL RRV OVERNIGHT
PER CEILING PROGS FROM LATEST HRRR MODEL. THREAT FOR SHOWERS
DIMINISHING FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY SOUTH WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TWEEKING POPS THIS EVENING. MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO
THE RRV LATE THIS AFTN HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND MOSTLY FALLEN APART
AS IT RAIN INTO DRY AIR OVER NW MN. UPPER LOW WEST OF BISMARCK
WITH SFC LOW IN SIMILAR LOCATION MOVING NORTH AS EXPECTED. BRIEF
CLEARING IN DRY SLOT IN THE ABERDEEN-HURON SD AREA MID AFTN LEAD
TO A NARROW BAND OF T-STORMS SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK TO WEST OF
ABERDEEN AND THESE ARE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW
BUT WITH MUCH MORE STABLE AIR IN SE ND THEY ARE WEAKENING. HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOURLY PRECIP AND HAS THE REMAINING
SHOWER BAND DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO SE ND TOWARD FARGO BY 03Z.
THIS WOULD LEAVE MUCH OF THE RRV/NW AND WCNTRL MN DRY OVERNIGHT.
DID TWEEK POPS TO INDICATE THAT IDEA BUT DID LEAVE IN SOME LOW
POPS PERHAPS A BIT LONGER THAN OTHERWISE WOULD DUE TO
UNCERTAINITIES. BETTER BET FOR SHOWERS IN DVL BASIN SO KEPT HIGHER
POPS THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOCUSES ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE 995 MB LOW IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WESTERN SD AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND INTO SWRN MANITOBA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY ARCS FROM BOTTINEAU TO FARGO AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING PEMBINA BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRIMARILY NEAR THE SD BORDER...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A STORM OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE
FAR SOUTH. ITS LOOKING LIKE MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT.

TOMORROW...CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
NORTH AND EAST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POTENT WAVE ENTERS AREA
BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDER TO THE CWFA BY
THURSDAY PM. GFS DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ITS 12Z SOLN OF THIS
SYSTEM AND USED A BLEND OF THE GEM/EC/NAM WITH ITS 500MB
PLACEMENT...TIMING AND TRACK...ALL OF WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA BY 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM 850MB
TEMPS REACH INTO THE 5 TO 9C RANGE WITH AND FAVORABLE WARMING SW
SFC WINDS ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND STRONG 925MB CAA. STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING 40KTS OR
BETTER TO MIX DURING THE DAYTIME. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 4C OR
SO WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C SO WILL LOWER FRIDAY MAX TEMPS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. SHOWERS SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY... NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PERIOD WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL ALLOW ANY WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN CHC/SLGHT CHC POPS SAT AND SUN WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE GIVING LOW 50S FOR MAX TEMPS. THICKNESSES INCREASE AS THE
NW FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WEST NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME AS A RESULT AND SLGHT CHC POPS ARE
LIMITED TO THE EASTERN CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF FAR ERN AREAS SUCH AS BAUDETTE-BEMIDJI-WADENA WHERE VFR CIGS
REMAIN. ISSUES THIS FCST IS AFFECT OF DRY SLOT IN CLEARING OUT THE
MVFR CIGS INTO FARGO AREA OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TVF/GFK AS
WELL. THEN MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO SPREAD BACK IN AS UPPER LOW/SFC LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
OVERNIGHT IN THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND THEN EVENTUALLY CLOSER TO WEST WED AFTN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RIDDLE






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