Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 182118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
318 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

The gusty northwest winds are already showing signs of coming
down. However, with the current temps, it still feels pretty
chilly outside. The gusty winds will decrease quickly through the
evening. The clouds and flurries/light snow over northwest
Minnesota should also exit off to the east by sunset. The best
temp fall will probably be through the first half of the night.
After that, later tonight, clouds should again begin to increase,
but mainly across the northern FA. This should stop the temp fall
for areas that see the clouds. Biggest change for Sunday will be
a small band of snow that is forecast to move through the northern
Red River Valley and northwest Minnesota. Looks like a high
pop/low qpf event, or one where those areas mentioned above receive
snow, but little snow. Wind speeds do not look like an issue, so
the overall impacts should be minimal. With no snow on the ground,
Sunday highs will be warmest across the southern FA.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

500mb pattern starts out with northwest flow aloft. One wave
drops into the FA Monday afternoon and Monday night, but at this
point it mainly looks to affect the northern Red River Valley into
northwest Minnesota. Precipitation type would favor starting out as
rain, but changing over to snow as temps fall Monday night. Monday
highs are still fairly mild, but temps fall during the afternoon and
night with gusty northwest winds. Did increase wind speeds a bit
during this time frame.

Back again to northwest flow at 500mb after this wave moves out. 12z
model runs today are showing a little better model consistency with
another weak clipper type system moving through the FA Wednesday
into possibly Wednesday evening. The GFS had been the only model
showing something then, but the latest ECMWF now has something too.
Not as confident at this point on potential pcpn amounts, but cold
enough for this to be snow. Models show a weakening trend to the
pcpn amounts as the system moves east, but a dusting or more is
possible from this. Will await later model runs to see if more
continuity can be established, which would help for
determining potential snowfall amounts too.

Currently looks fairly quiet on Thanksgiving Day with high pressure
over the FA. Models have then been showing another little system
tracking across the northern FA Thursday night into Friday. Quite a
bit of uncertainty then comes into play by Saturday. The 12z ECMWF
cranks up a stronger surface low over the FA, while the other models
are much weaker. So will await later model runs to see how this may
play out.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

The MVFR clouds right along and east of the Red River Valley are
the main aviation concern. At KGFK/KFAR, think just a couple of
hours of the broken MVFR clouds will hold before they slide east.
KTVF and KBJI will probably be affected the longest, or until mid
to late afternoon. There is some light snow or flurries under
these clouds, but vsbys mainly look pretty good. The gusty winds
will subside late this afternoon into the evening.




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