Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 010939

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
339 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

Snow chances and amounts will be the main forecast concern for
the period.

Water vapor loop shows a decent shortwave trough over western ND
heading eastward. There has been a fair amount of snow moving
across central ND in response to this system, and web cams show
snow is just starting to enter our northeastern CWA. The shortwave
will move into MN during the day today, and both the short range
and global models are consistent with the system weakening as it
moves east, eventually washing out the surface low currently over
southwestern ND. The best chances for accumulating snow this
morning will be in our far northwest, although kept some gradually
diminishing POPs going through much of the day as the shortwave
moves across the area. The northwestern counties could see up to
an inch this morning, with amounts trailing off to a dusting then
flurries as the band of snow moves east.

After the first shortwave moves off to the east, another stronger
shortwave will begin to dig down out of Canada and into the
southern Red River Valley tonight. The surface low will move from
western ND into southwestern MN. The NAM shows good coinciding of
upper support and 850mb frontogenesis, and that model is most
bullish on QPF. The GFS also has some frontogenesis but keeps it
mostly to our west, and the international models have some QPF in
our southeastern counties but not much. However, with the NAM
doing surprisingly well lately and the tail end of the short
range model runs showing QPF patterns that would indicate banding,
will lean more towards some decent accumulation in the
southwestern with the potential for a heavier mesoscale band
somewhere over the region.

As for temperatures, the clouds and recent snow will keep the
northwest in the teens today with near 30 in the south. The
northern counties will have less clouds overnight and will drop to
below zero in spots, with the south staying in the teens with
clouds and precip.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

Thursday and Friday...Snow will taper off Thursday morning across
the far southern counties, with surface high pressure building in
and quiet but colder conditions. Temps should be below early March
averages with low teens to low 20s for highs and dipping down to
the single digits either side of zero for Thursday night. The cold
will be short lived however, as south to southwesterly winds kick
in and warm air advection really gets going for Friday and Friday
night. Some light snow along the leading edge of the warm air
advection Friday is not out of the question, although amounts
should be very light.

Saturday to Tuesday night...Zonal flow aloft initially will
transition to SW flow to start the work week with the approaching
short wave. Well above normal temperatures are in store for this
weekend with 925mb temps ranging from 6 to 10C and SFC high temps in
the upper 30s north where deeper snow exists to upper 40s south.
Model spread continues to be wide with evolution of the short wave
and SFC low to traverse west to east across the northern plains to
start the work week. The system appears to be progressive with
minimal ridging ahead to slow its track and deepens to the east of
the FA. EC continues to track the low along the international border
whereas the GEFS/GFS suite maintains a more northern track with wrap
around precipitation very delayed as the dry slot wins out Tuesday.
Nonetheless best chances for snow will be Monday night into Tuesday
night across the north with temps falling back into the 20s and 30s
for Monday and Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)

Issued at 1132 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Some higher level ceilings have worked their way into the majority
of the TAF sites but remain VFR at this time. Upper wave still
expected to slide across north central North Dakota overnight
brining an area of -SN into KDVL and gradually moving eastward.
Have included mention at KDVL by 08z and at KGFK sometime between
10-12z. Confidence still remains fairly low just how much sites
any further south and east will be impacted as hi-res models still
indicate weakening as the area of snow moves eastward. Regardless
of the snow, lower MVFR ceilings will also move into the area from
west to east throughout the overnight. Current north winds of
generally 5 kts or less will back a bit to the northwest on
Wednesday and increase into the 10-15 kt range.




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