Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 260306
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1006 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

A narrow band of tstms did form just prior to 02z in an area of
enhanced mid level cumulus field near grafton-hallock. Activity is
a bit stronger now but still in a narrow zone well north of the
actual frontal boundary but in an area of 35 kt bulk shear. Bulk
shear drops off significantly south of GFK this evening. Would
expect to see some continuation of these showers/storms ESE
tonight and still some risk of development overnight if low level
jet does increase. Some HRRR runs want to have favored development
in north central MN along nose of a 40 kt jet nr midnight and lack
of activity in SE ND.

UPDATE Issued at 659 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Issue this evening is tstm development. Weak sfc boundary at 23z
from just north of Roseau to just nort of Grand Gorks then to
about Carrington to just south of Bismarck. Plenty of instability
with sfc based CAPE in the 3-4k range on the north side of the
boundary centered btwn BIS and DVL. Problem is forcing along the
boundary is rather weak and also very little mid or upper level
support to get things going. Low level jet is one component that
may help but that is a few hours away yet from impacting the
boundary. So will continue to monitor and keep pops as fcst.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Forecast challenge will be shower and tstm chances tonight into
Tuesday. Until any of this activity develops in the early to mid
evening, it will remain quiet. Looking like elevated convection
will get going with the low level jet during the evening. 850mb
winds show a convergent boundary setting up from near Jamestown up
toward the Lake of the Woods region. There is decent south-sw flow
meeting some sort of northerly flow. The high resolution model
guidance shows shower and thunderstorm activity initiating in the
00-01z time frame, and keeping some of this activity around
through the mid to late evening. After midnight, the low level jet
focuses more into the Bemidji area. Therefore, after midnight,
there should be better chances around the Bemidji area. The latest
SPC day 1 outlook has expanded the marginal risk area to include
areas along this boundary, so a few strong to severe storms may
be possible. The low level boundary sags southward during the day
Tuesday, pushing the pcpn chances to areas mainly along and south
of highway 200.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Tuesday night through Friday...west to northwesterly flow aloft
continues over the Northern Plains with several weak shortwaves
moving through. Frontal boundary will be just to the south of the
CWA, and the track of the weak shortwaves have most of the heaviest
QPF values staying to the west and south. However, there will be a
continued chance for at least some storm development Tuesday night
and again during the afternoon hours Wednesday and Thursday, mainly
over the southern counties. Temperatures should be fairly seasonable
in the upper 50s/low 60s for lows and near 80 for highs.

Saturday through Monday...500mb heights start to rise Saturday as
some brief upper ridging builds in for Sunday. Even with the ridge
building in there is still potential for weak shortwaves to come
over the top of it so will keep low POPs going. Better chances for
more widespread rain will come in Monday as flow returns to a
southwesterly direction and the deterministic models are in good
agreement with a surface trough coming out into the Northern Plains.
Temps and dew points will be slowly rising through the weekend and
by Monday will be back into the 80s to near 90 for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

VFR thru the pd. Isold-sct storms possible along boundary nr a
ROX-TVF-GFK corridor 03z-08z with any cloud bases in the VFR
range. The weak boundary will drift south overnight into Tuesday
with winds more light northwest DVL basin....turning NW TVF-GFK
overnight but mostly southerly BJI-FAR Tuesday morning.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Riddle



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