Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 130034
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

TEMPS ARE DROPPING QUICKLY UNDER THE SFC HIGH...WHICH RIGHT NOW IS
ALONG A LINE FROM LANGDON TO LAKOTA TO VALLEY CITY TO GWINNER.
LANGDON IS THE COLDEST AT -17F...BUT OTHER STATIONS ARE NEAR -10F.
WILL GO AHEAD AND DECREASE LOW TEMPS A LITTLE BIT MORE ACROSS THIS
AREA. THEY MAY ALSO SEE A NON DIURNAL TEMP CURVE...WITH TEMPS
FALLING QUICKLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY TEMPS LEVELING OUT OR
RISING AGAIN LATE AS CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL TRANSITION OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND REMAIN AN OPEN WAVE.

WARM ADVECTION PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SAT
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SAT AFTERNOON AND MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND NOT EXPECTING STRONG WINDS POST
PRECIPITATION BANDS. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE SAT
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD. MODELS GENERALLY HAVE BEEN
TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. TWO TO FIVE
OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER MODELS NOT STABLE WITH QPF AMOUNTS
AND SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

IN THE MEANTIME A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE SASK/MAN BORDER TO
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER MN BY MORNING. COLD TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR UNDER THE RIDGE. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DOWN
IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW RANGE OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING. WIND CHILLS
WILL BE LOW IN THE EAST ZONES OVERNIGHT AND IMPROVE IN THE MORNING.
THE THE NORTHWEST WILL GO DOWN LATER TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW. WILL
KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH JUST ONE AREA IN THE ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW BY LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NATIONS MID
SECTION.  ONE SHORT WAVE WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCES TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO OCCUR THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH
THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER SSE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SAT MORNING AND BE QUITE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THRU THE DAY...WITH THE
LOWEST CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AROUND KDVL BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-015-
     016-026>030-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022>024-028-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON



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