Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 170449
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1149 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Radar continues to show heavier rain moving north and west into the
deformation zone. Water vapor loop indicated the upper level low was
over southwest MN with the dry slot over southeast MN and southwest
WI. Upper low will move into northern WI Thu morning. No changes
were made at this update.

UPDATE Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Radar indicated heavier rain was moving into the far southeast
zones and will continue to do so overnight. the western edge of
the precipitation extended from near Hankinson ND to near Waskish,
MN. Raised low temp a bit in the south for tonight. Tweaked pops
and winds. Otherwise not much change at this update.

UPDATE Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Upper level low pressure system was over eastern SD and northeast
NE. Dry slot was nosing into southern MN and is forecast to shift
into much of WI by 12Z Thu. Deformation zone will occur from
eastern SD/southwest MN to northeast MN. Fair amount of rain
expected over the far southeast zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

H7 low just west of FSD to propagate east to MSP by morning. This
track would keep heaviest rain axis just to our south and east as
most recent guidance has been indicating. Even so expecting a 1-2
inch rain along and south of a line from Fergus Falls to Park
Rapids and cannot rule out locally higher amounts. This area
received lesser rain amounts over the past week and with ability
to drain and lack of deep convective potential am not expecting
significant flooding issues however will need to monitor.  Rain
amounts/pops will taper off to the w-nw. Clearing line through the
far nw fa will reach the northern and central valley region by
morning. with light wind, recent rain and clearing fog looks
possible from DVL basin into the northern valley. Fairly dry low
level air upstream however not likely to reach too far into the fa
so lows will hinge pretty close to dewpoints in the 50s to lower
60s.

H7 low will continue to propagate to the great lakes Thursday
taking the rain area with it. Any lingering shra will be limited
to the far east by afternoon. Clouds will limit highs over the
east tomorrow however once any fog burns off expecting full sun
elsewhere with dry column and high convective temperatures. Could
see a respectable thermal gradient across the fa with western
areas reaching seasonal averages around 80s to the 60s in the
east.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Overall pattern in the extended period looks a little more unsettled
as a series of waves cross the area.

For Thursday night...some rain will linger but mainly east of the
Red River valley. Conditions will improve on Thursday with moderate
temperatures and relatively light winds.

By Friday...an advancing upper level wave will provide chances for
another batch of showers or storms. However...the day on Saturday
looks to be more tranquil before another system approaches the
forecast area late Saturday night into Sunday morning.  This system
is expected to bring another chance for more showers/storms.
Otherwise...temperatures overall through the period look to remain
near seasonal values, with daytime highs in the upper 70s and lows
in the mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

MVFR to IFR conditions were over northwest MN and southeast ND. VFR
conditions was over northeast ND. Expect mostly IFR conditions over
northeast and west central MN for the rest of the night. IFR
conditions will be possible over the Devils Lake basin tonight with
the development of patchy fog. Expect IFR/MVFR conditions to shift
east and improve by late morning and into the afternoon. Expect VFR
conditions by late afternoon Thu.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...JH



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