Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 210330

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1130 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

Issued at 912 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

Occluded front will lift up into nrn Michigan late tonight, with
the leading band of rain showers becoming lighter and somewhat
breaking up with time, as the associated shortwave is weakening.
The weakening showers are also likely attributed to how dry our
air mass was earlier today. The deeper moisture stripping out
aloft from south to north will bring a period of no rain for
awhile, until we can get into more dynamics overnight. This comes
via divergence aloft associated with an upper jet, and a hint of
renewed low to mid level WAA in a piece of the LLJ, both of which
are currently playing a part in stronger rain showers and even
thunderstorms well south of us in Indiana/far SW lower. Helping
the cause will be additional weak DPVA/vorticity ejected out of
the main upper low which lifts into the WI/MN border late tonight.
Doubt there will be thunder, but will have a slight chance, due
to a few hundred J/Kg of MUCAPE overnight.

Will also need to watch for additional rains in the NW CWA, more
so moving up through the spine of Lake Michigan. This will be
associated with a much stronger shortwave trough and LLJ closer to
the main upper/sfc lows. This activity can be seen developing in
western IL attm.

All-in-all...expect more rainfall later tonight into Sunday
morning, with maybe even some light fog issues as the actual
occluded front arrives Sunday morning.

A milder night with lows in the upper half of the 40s to some
middle 50s in downsloping areas of easterly flow in NW lower.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...Slight chance of thunder tonight
into Sunday morning.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Strong high pressure remains centered
over Western Quebec...while low pressure continues to lift N/NE out
of the Central Plains toward the Western Great Lakes region. Initial
push of mid/high level clouds on the eastern edge of this system has
reached Northern Michigan....while the leaving edge of the precip
shield has pushed thru SW Lower Michigan and is approaching a line
from LDM to MOP. Temps have warmed mainly in the upper 50s and lower
60s across most of our CWA...with the exception of cooler temps
around 50 degrees along the Lake Huron shoreline thanks to gusty
east winds off the cool lake.

As we head into this evening...clouds will continue to increase/
lower and thicken as deeper moisture surges northward ahead of the
low center. Typically dry easterly flow will take some time to
overcome as the deeper low level moisture tries to make headway into
the persistently dry airmass over our CWA. Surface dwpts remain in
the upper 20s to lower 30s across most of our area right
the leading edge of the precip shield will tend to initially erode
with northward push. Eventually deep moisture will win out and
widespread precip will develop from SW to NE across our CWA tonight.
Latest near term models show only meager chances of embedded thunder
for tonight into Sunday morning as MUCAPES only increase to 250-500
J/KG across Northern Lower Michigan. Will limit thunder chances to
slight across this area thru Sunday morning.

With developing thick cloud cover and ongoing WAA...low temps will
only fall into the mid 40s to lower 50s tonight. High temps on
Sunday will range from the mid 50s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the
lower 70s in NE Lower Michigan where CAA will begin later in the day
in the wake of the departing low.


.SHORT TERM...(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

...Mostly cloudy, cool and showery...

The low pressure system that will move through the area tonight into
Sunday leaves behind a cutoff upper low. This feature hangs around
the region through midweek with weak disturbances rotating around
it. This will lead to occasional chances for showers. Not a washout
by any means but at least scattered showers from time to time.
Temperatures will remain on the cool side for late May. Highs from
north to south ranging from the middle 50s to middle 60s and lows in
the lower and middle 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

After a chance for mid-week showers, the remainder of the extended
looks to remain quiet. High pressure will remain in control through
the start of Memorial weekend, with temperatures a bit above normal
and rain chances looking minimal through Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 1127 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

Low pressure will lift into far western Lake Superior into Sunday
morning, with a warm/occluded front lifting in over nrn Michigan.
The first period of rain has shifted north for the most part, with
the next round now moving up through srn lower Michigan and will
primarily impact APN overnight. CIGS will continue lowering into
Sunday morning ahead of the front, reaching IFR for a period of
time, along with some possible reduction in VSBYS due to light
fog. The system cold front then plows through later Sunday,
scouring out the low cloud for a time, and result in pretty gusty
S/SW winds across NW lower. The low level cold pool then arrives
Sunday evening, resulting in the potential return of MVFR CIGS.

LLWS will remain rather stout tonight into daybreak Sunday.


Issued at 311 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

Winds and waves will remain at SCA criteria thru tonight as low
pressure tracks thru the Western Great Lakes region. SCA conditions
may persist into Sunday for some locations as well. Widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms will develop from SW to NE across
all of Michigan late this afternoon...tonight and into Sunday as
deep moisture surges northward ahead of the low center. Small
chances of showers will linger into Sunday night and Monday in the
wake of the departing low.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Sunday for LHZ345>348.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ341.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-342-
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ321-322.


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