Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 140543

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
143 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

High pressure will move slowly east over the next couple of days
providing fair weather. Generally dry weather will continue into
Tuesday, however, a weak frontal boundary will move south across
Michigan and into Indiana and Ohio by Tuesday which could cause an
isolated shower in our area. There is a good chance of showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday as a low pressure system
moves northeast from the Plains across the Great Lakes. High
pressure will build in behind this system providing fair weather
Friday. Temperatures will remain a bit below normal today, but
should be at or slightly above normal during the work week with
highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Cu field will slowly dissipate by sunset with little more than
mid/high clouds through Monday. Temperatures will continue to
moderate with readings reaching the upper 70s to around 80, closer
to normal levels. Clouds may begin to thicken more in advance of the
first of several systems Monday afternoon with any precipitation
impacts to hold off until the long term period.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Weak frontal boundary will try to edge into NW parts of the area
late Monday night into Tuesday. Moisture and forcing will be
fairly limited, so little more than slgt chance warranted at this

Increasing temperatures, humidity and strength of upper level
waves will bring potential for showers and at least a chance of
thunderstorms. Low confidence forecast with models continuing to
disagree on coverage/timing/intensity of precip with each wave.
Decent shortwave late Weds ngt into Thurs probably will bring low
end likely pops to the area so will cautiously run with that.
Another decent wave looks to move in towards the weekend. Given
amount of moisture around, most locations should have a shot for
at least an inch or more through the forecast period at one point
or another. With both systems, there will be a non-zero risk of
severe weather, but again exact evolution details very cloudy.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Weak return flow will be underway later today. Patchy ground fog
is possible, especially at the Ft Wayne near daybreak. For now,
kept fog out as any fog should be very brief and should not be
operationally significant.




LONG TERM...Fisher

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