Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 150526

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1225 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

Issued at 235 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

Tonight will feature increasing clouds and continued dry
conditions as lows range between the mid 30s and mid 40s. A cold
front will bring widespread showers on Wednesday with highs
generally in the mid to upper 40s. This will followed by cooler
and mainly cloudy conditions into Thursday. Another storm system
will move through later Friday into Saturday with periods of rain
and milder temperatures.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

Mid level shortwave over the Northern Rockies will
consolidate/strengthen east through the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes on Wednesday (150 meter 5H height falls). Downstream warm
advection and increasing clouds in advance of this system will
result in a milder night with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Deep
ascent/moisture plume within a strengthening 40-50 kt low level jet
will allow a band of moderate rain to develop along and in advance
of the associated cold front...with timing of higher category PoPs
through areas west of I-69 during the morning and early afternoon
hours...and points east late morning and afternoon. Cannot rule out
a rumble of thunder, though probabilities/coverage appear too low
for a mention in the grids.

WNW cyclonic flow post-frontal late Wednesday into Thursday will
result in brisk/cooler/mainly cloudy conditions, especially downwind
of Lake MI along/north of US 30 where a few lake enhanced
showers/sprinkles will be possible into Thursday morning. The near
sfc environment and lacking moisture depth (ice nucleation) favor
drizzle/liquid as main ptype...though a few flurries could mix in
later Wed night/Thur AM.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

The main Pacific Northwest upper trough will finally release east
through NOAM later this week into the upcoming weekend. A more
progressive frontal wave is now expected with embedded shortwave
energy coming through the local area with a more neutral/positive
tilt. Excellent moisture return/jet dynamics should help squeeze out
a rather healthy rain maker by later Friday into Saturday, though
models continue to differ with respect to timing and strength of the
sfc reflection. Brisk/cold northwest flow and potentially some lake
effect snow showers then behind this system for the second half of
the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1225 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

VFR flight rule will gradually decay in response to ramping moisture
advection swd of low pressure winding up across the nrn lakes.
However based on observed saturation pressure deficits seen in
nearby raob soundings from last evening have delayed prior shower
arrival at the terminals. Nevertheless eventual MVFR cat likely with
potential transient but brief IFR pending precip intensity this aftn.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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