Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 271721
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
121 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW PROVIDING A
PLEASANT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 80 IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

STRONG UPR RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GRTLKS TO THE SERN U.S. THIS
MORNING WITH A CUT-OFF LOW OVER SRN IA/NRN MO. SHRTWV OVER SASK
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO QUEBEC/ONTARIO TONIGHT KICKING GRTLKS RIDGE
EASTWARD AND SHEARING OUT IA/MO CUT-OFF LOW. SOME CIRRUS STREAMING
NORTH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO OUR AREA ATTM SHOULD CONT
TODAY/TNGT BUT IT APPEARS RATHER THIN ON IR IMAGERY AND DOUBT IF IT
WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON INSOLATION/TEMPERATURES. PATCHY RADIATIONAL
COOLING FOG BEING REPORTED ACROSS NE PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
GRADIENT WEAKEST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPEST DUE TO TRAJECTORIES
OFF LAKES HURON/ERIE... SHOULD PERSIST PAST DAYBREAK... DISSIPATING
BY LATE MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT COMPARED TO
PAST 24HRS AS STAGNANT AIRMASS PERSISTS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN
THE U70S/L80S ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE L-M50S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT AT LEAST FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DVLP AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

WEAK FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL BE
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS PERIOD. KEPT CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS A DEEP DRY LAYER
PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY PER GFS BUFKIT WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AROUND OR BELOW 10 PERCENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF WHICH BEST SUPPORTS THIS FRONT IS AN OUTLIER
AMONG OTHER MODELS AND IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE PRESSURES LATE NEXT WEEK.
FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION IN THIS REGARD WITH DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

RADIATIONAL FOG REMAINS THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT LOW TO MID 50S TONIGHT. WITH CALM
SURFACE WINDS...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT SHORTLY
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. WENT WITH FUEL ALTERNATE
CONDITIONS AT KFWA BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND MORE AGGRESSIVE MOS
GUIDANCE BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG
AND WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO MAKE FURTHER REFINEMENTS TO THE VIS
FORECAST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD


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