Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 141807
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
107 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1245 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

High clouds will continue to increase this afternoon in advance of
a fast moving upper level disturbance that will affect the area
tonight. A cold front with this system will bring a brief spell
of more seasonable temperatures and possibly a few snow flurries
and lake effect snow showers tonight into early Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, the work week will remain dry. The cold air will
rapidly depart by Friday with much above normal temperatures
settling in through this weekend and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 254 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

Nrn stream sw trough over wrn ON this morning will rapidly amplify
sewd into the ern lakes by Wed aftn. While associated cold front
will drop through the area this aftn...low level cold advection lags
a bit and should have little effect on diurnal curve this aftn.
Decent mixing ahead of this will yield mid-upr 40s for most.

Tempted to drop overnight pops altogether given shallow and moisture
starved lake aggregate trough yet will ride token slights one more
cycle late tonight into Wed morning. Regardless flurries at most
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 254 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

Low level thermal trough will break down Thu as sig deep layer ridge
folds ewd out of the plains followed by strong low level warm
advection Fri. Depth/intensity of low level thermal ridge nwd of srn
stream impulse cutting ewd through the TN valley still suggests 60s
possible for some Sat-Mon and generally hedge warmer through DYS4-8.

Otherwise while timing of ejection of lead disturbance out of the
wrn US late weekend/early next week had solidified...large
discrepancies exists among individual deterministic solutions with
regard to longevity of frontal rain band Tue. General consensus
trends indicate more stream separation toward a dominant srn stream
wave tracking through the srn US late Tue and Canadian border
vicinity cutoff Wed which would greatly limit both scope and
duration of any rainfall here. Regardless of solution above normal
temps look to continue beyond this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

West-southwest flow and VFR conditions will continue this
afternoon in advance of next cold front. Gradient will remain
fairly strong this afternoon but shallow mixing heights should
limit gusts to the 20 to 25 knot range. Cold front will track
across the terminals this evening with wind shift to the west
northwest and renewed gusts to around 20 knots. A period of higher
gusts closer to 25 knots will be possible tonight, especially in
association with surge of stronger pressure rises behind the cold
front. Sct snow showers/flurries will be possible late evening
into Wednesday morning with some lake response expected but will
defer to later forecasts/amendments to potentially narrow down
more favored time period for SHSN mention. Gusty winds to remain
through the period with good mixing and steep low level lapse
rates persisting into Wednesday. Will maintain trend to MVFR cigs
just above fuel alternate criteria, although some potential exists
for a period of cigs dipping below 2k feet late tonight at KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Gale Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through late tonight for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Marsili/T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Marsili


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