Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 221712
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
115 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 558 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016

SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF STATE
HIGHWAY 31. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...EXCEPT COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. SOME
OF THE LOCALLY COLDER SPOTS MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S. PLEASANT
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016

A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 10 AM EDT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER TODAY
MAINLY EAST OF I69 WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPES MAY BE ABLE TO REACH
500 J/KG AS TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 65. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TODAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING
WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S. SOME LOCALLY COLDER SPOTS MAY DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NORTHERN INDIANA INTO FAR SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AS COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING
ANOTHER VERY NICE WEEKEND FOR THE MOST PART. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF SUN WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S...NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE
APRIL. SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS
COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS WILL
ALLOW A WARMER RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ON SUNDAY. SAT NIGHT MINS WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGH STILL PROVIDING LIGHT
WINDS...ESPECIALLY EAST. TEMPS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S EAST
TO MIDDLE 40S WEST. IF HIGH IS SLOWER TO EXIT AND TEMPS DROP A FEW
MORE DEGREES...MAY NEED TO ADD SOME PATCHY FROST TO EASTERN
LOCATIONS. MIXING SUNDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S. SOME CONCERN FOR CIRRUS CANOPY LIMITING
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. FULL SUN WITH EXPECTED THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
UPPER 70S POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A POSITIVE TROUGH. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE AS THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
ECMWF SHOWS SOME LINGERING PCPN TUESDAY IN WAKE OF FRONT THUS
SUPERBLEND LOW CHANCE POPS LINGER BUT HAVE SERIOUS DOUBTS GIVEN
FRONTAL POSITION WELL SOUTH AND NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS THIS WEEK
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AFTER FROPA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FINALLY LIFTING
EAST WITH TROF AXIS NOW ALONG IN/OH STATE LINE. KIWX RADAR SHOWING
-SHRA WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM BACK INTO KFWA AND IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER FOR THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF TAF PERIOD. WHERE PRECIP HAS
PERSISTED...CIGS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED VFR/MVFR WHILE AT KSBN
WHERE PRECIP HAS ENDED...IFR/LIFR HAVE BEEN LOCKED IN MOST OF THE
DAY. AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH 00Z SAT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT LEADING TO VFR
REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT NE WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JAL


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