Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 192335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
735 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Issued at 740 pM EDT Mom Jun 18 2017

An upper level trough will remain over the area for the next 24
hours causing scattered showers and thunderstorms again Tuesday.
High pressure will move across our area Wednesday providing fair
weather. The high will move east late this week as a cold front
approaches from the northwest, resulting in warmer more humid
conditions with a chance of thunderstorms.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Tuesday)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Sw trough spreading ewd across cntrl lake MI triggering sct tsra
this aftn esp along sfc composite lake breeze confluent zone from nw
IN through srn MI. Expect coverage will widen further through mid
aftn in response to continued favorable sfc based destabilization as
cold pool aloft deepens overhead. Otherwise activity will pull
quickly ewd out out of the cwa by evening.

Similar situation expected tomorrow as nw flow aloft across the
lakes continues before breaking long term. Upstream sw dropping
through MB looks fairly robust per water vapor imagery. Fittingly
bulk of latest and prior CAMS models point to vigorous convective
development by mid aftn Tue along leading edge of mid level trough.
Given attendant speed max nr 80kts and focused ascent plume likely
to see some loose organization.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Tricky period stemming from tropical disturbance developing through
the northern Gomex and eventual northward progression into the mid
MS/lower OH valley late period.

Start of the period features newd progression of mean troughing
through se Canada and upstream height rises across the lakes. More
summer like weather expected as a result as sw flow deepens across
the area swd of next vigorous disturbance amplifying through srn
Canada dys 4-5 (Thu/Fri) with active w-e oriented frontal zone
aligned through the srn lakes/OH valley. In absence of a more
concerted model consensus at this range will generally follow
blended guidance in lieu of a more compelling solution.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 728 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Upr level trof over the wrn Grtlks contg to cause sct shra/ts
across the region this eve. Convection will grdly diminish with
loss of heating by midnight. Outside of the shra/ts vfr conditions
expected overnight. Temps aloft will warm some tomorrow but prbly
still sufficient diurnal instability for a bkn cu deck and sct
shra/isolated ts again in the aftn.





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