Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 190828

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
428 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Issued at 424 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2017

Skies should start to clear by late today. Highs will range from
the lower 40s over south central Lower Michigan to the lower 50s
into west central Indiana. Another front will bring a chance for
showers from late tonight into Monday, along with a slight chance
of a thunderstorm. Highs Monday will be around 50.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 421 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Patchy Drizzle will end as low levels dry out from increasing deep
layer subsidence. Clouds may linger for some time today under the
base of the subsidence inversion, but there should be some brief
clearing early tonight before clouds and increasing moisture from
the next approaching system move into the area. Temperatures should
begin rising overnight, with all temperatures rising above freezing
before precipitation begins. Therefore, no travel issues are
expected with temperatures staying above freezing. No freezing
rain, sleet or snow is expected. The edge of an elevated mixed
layer should move into the area tonight. A few rumbles of thunder
are possible. Given the instability above the inversion, hail is
also possible, although large hail is not expected at this time.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 421 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Precipitation will end Monday night as a very large ridge of high
pressure begins to build into the region Tuesday. Very chilly air
will be over the area Wednesday with highs mainly in the 30s; even
with full spring sun. Return flow will begin Thursday with showers
spreading back into the region Thursday night. Thermal profiles
indicated just rain as temperatures moderate. Highs should top 60
degrees Friday with the mild weather continuing into Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 107 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Slow trudge out of widespread mvfr cigs expected this period. 00Z
KDTX raob illustrates the problem with deep saturation under
subsidence inversion aloft and given positioning of sfc ridge this
morning expect low cigs will persist into this aftn and likely
evening invof KFWA.

However backing of low level flow late this aftn should afford some
low level drying invof KSBN and will optimistically scatter into vfr.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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