Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 131710

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1210 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017

Issued at 254 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2017

High pressure will drift east along the Ohio river today with
sunny skies expected. Highs this afternoon will range in the low
to mid 40s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 254 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2017

Ltl of concern this period as sfc ridging drifts ewd along the OH
river. Full insolation along with backing low level flow as ridge
axis pushes east favors another mild Feb day. Otherwise sw flow will
uptick tonight as whats left of low level thermal trough washes out
with another mild night.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 254 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2017

Upstream nrn stream sw over nrn AB will steam sewd and tuck in
across the ern lakes behind departing gulf of maine bomb Tue.
Associated weak cold front will drop through the area in the aftn
but remains moisture starved given undercutting srn stream sw
crossing the gulf coast states. Pops continue to downtrend and were
eliminated entirely late Wed-Thu as upstream subsidence through
the backside of this amplifying sys over New England and dry
entrainment squelch any muted lake response.

Thereafter significant ridging aloft builds across the ern US in
wake of this sys and arrival of next epac wave train into the west
coast. Given multiday model trends will break warmer Fri-Sat at this
point and likely be needed for Sun too as ewd of lead west coast
wave delays toward DY9 (Tue). Breath of low level thermal trough and
good mixing within expanding downstream warm sector suggest record
temps possible Sat.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017

VFR conditions will continue through tonight as sprawling high
pressure and very dry air aloft spread over the region. Some
chance for diurnal cu/stratocu development Tuesday afternoon as
next round of CAA arrives but confidence in ceiling reduction
prior to 18Z is too low for inclusion at this time range.





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