Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 121935
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
335 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT
COURTESY OF A APPROACHING SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW
AREAS THAT SEE CLEARING POTENTIALLY SEEING A FEW UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND
DEEPEN BUT REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. AN BAND OF RAIN LOCATED FROM NE MISSOURI INTO SE WISCONSIN
HAS BEEN SLOWLY EXPANDING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER FAR NW
AREAS TOWARDS 00Z AND EXPAND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. GREATEST
CONCENTRATION/HIGHEST QPF SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
ROUTE 6 BUT STILL THINK MOST EVERYONE WILL SEE AT LEAST A BIT OF
LIGHT RAIN. HAVE INCREASED POPS FURTHER SOUTH BASED ON UPSTREAM
TRENDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH THE PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND
DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATER TONIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LK
MI WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL TAKE SHAPE AS H-85 DELTA T`S
APPROACH 20 WITH OVER 700 J/KG OF LAKE INDUCED CAPE. CAN`T RULE OUT
A STRAY LIGHTING STRIKE BUT HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE FOR NOW. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. A FEW OF THE MODELS HINT AT
LOWS MORE IN THE MID 40S ESPECIALLY NW BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT DROP
SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE.

LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SOME AREAS NORTH OF THE
TOLL ROAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF SAT MORNING. THINGS SHOULD WIND
DOWN QUICKLY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...DEEPER MSTR DEPARTS AND
INVERSIONS CRASH. HAVE KEPT HIGHS ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH BUST
POTENTIAL ON THE MODERATE SIDE WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY NOT CLIMBING OUT
OF THE 50S DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND AT LEAST A PARTIAL
INFLUENCE FROM MID SEPTEMBER SUN. WILL DEFER TO MID SHIFT TO LOOK AT
CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

SUPPRESSED HEIGHT FIELD/BROAD TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK. ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS CORRIDOR OF MODEST MID LEVEL
CVA/ASCENT/STRENGTHENING UPPER JET SUPPORT WITH NEXT UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATES THROUGH. MAINLY DRY/FAIR WX ANTICIPATED OTHERWISE AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES IN NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

LOWER END VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY RETURN THIS AFTERNOON FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD AS LAKE INFLUENCE WANES IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
WAVE. ITS ARRIVAL LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING
BACK MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY NEAR KSBN WITH
INCREASED LAKE RESPONSE ADDING TO PRECIP CHANCES AND LOWER BASES.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TAFS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


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