Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 272331
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
731 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 338 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

An isolated shower or storm may be possible through Sunday given
warm and humid conditions but most locations will likely remain
dry. Highs on Sunday will generally be in the mid to upper 80s.
Warm conditions will continue through early next week until a cold
front arrives on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 338 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Primary convective line associated with main surge of 310K system
relative isentropic ascent and a weak/embedded shortwave is
currently exiting our eastern counties. A few stronger storms were
observed but early passage of rain has kept instability muted and
prevented more organized convection despite decent shear values.
Very moist (PW values over 2 inches and surface dewpoints in low
70s) and largely uncapped environment may support a few more
sporadic showers and storms this evening (primarily in the west
where atmosphere has had time to recover) but coverage and strength
should be limited given lack of forcing/weak subsidence behind
exiting wave and lackluster MLCAPE`s. Hi-res models suggest a few
isolated showers may persist or re-develop by early Sunday morning
but expect primarily dry conditions during the overnight and have
lowered POP`s. Could be some areas of fog with light winds and
plenty of low level moisture. Stuck with just patchy wording for now
as MOS guidance hints at more of a low stratus event. If fog does
form though, it could be dense in some spots. Overnight lows will
remain near 70F given moist environment.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Latest guidance suggests mid/upper level ridge will actually expand
over our area on Sunday as influence of dampening wave remains well
to our north. This leaves our CWA in a region of generally weak
subsidence. Surface dewpoints remain in the low 70s but some hints
of a weak cap on GFS forecast soundings and without any substantive
forcing most places may end up staying dry, especially across our
north. Slightly better moisture remains in our southern counties
tomorrow so maintained low chance POP`s there. Thunderstorms are
certainly possible if precip does occur but severe threat is low
given limited shear and poor lapse rates. It will be on the warm
side with highs in the mid to upper 80s and heat indices in the low
to mid 90s for most of the CWA.

Surface high pressure and subsidence then settle into the Great
Lakes early next week in wake of passing trough to the north. This
provides a period of weak N/NE flow that will advect some drier air
into the area. Removed most of the POP`s Sunday night through
Tuesday as a result. Did keep some slight chances in the W/SW but
those may be able to be removed if current model trends hold. Will
be slightly cooler but still near to slightly above climo. Best
chance of rain currently looks to arrive on Wednesday as a cold
front moves through the region. Forcing for ascent is not
particularly strong so just low chance POP`s for now but it will
usher in a cooler and drier airmass for the second half of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 726 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Subsidence behind departing short wave continues to keep skies
partly cloudy to mostly clear over the local area. A few
showers/storms were beginning to develop upstream near weak
front. This boundary sags toward us overnight with models showing
various solutions from a lot of development to very little. For
now opted to not introduce any pcpn chances to terminals given
overnight timing and will monitor upstream trends. With light wind
field and high near surface moisture will likely see fog and/or
stratus development providing pcpn does not move in. Continued
terminals in this direction for consistency. VFR then rest of
Sunday with a possibility of an isolated storm with afternoon
heating.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...Lashley


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