Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 170610
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
210 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA AND IN
NORTHWEST OHIO. THEREAFTER EXPECT VARIABLE...BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 50. FOR
FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BRING A BIT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN SEEN THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM REACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

WEAK/SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH ISOLD SHRA EASTERN HALF TO LIFT OUT/END
AS CYCLONIC FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW CENTERED IN FAR SWRN ONTARIO BEGINS
NORTHWARD LIFT THIS EVENING/COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING 0-2KM
STABILITY. CONCERN LATER TONIGHT REVOLVES AROUND STRATUS
REFORMATION/FILL-IN AS ELEVATED 2KFT FLOW BEGINS TO RAMP TO 40 KTS
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AFTER 06 UTC. GIVEN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE AND
MEAGER LIFTING OF BASES OF CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
SURFACE RIDGELINE STILL UPSTREAM /ERN WI SWD INTO WRN TN/...WILL
SIDE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVERAGE AND TOWARD WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE BLEND...THOUGH CONCEDE CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUCCINCT/POTENT UPSTREAM WAVE OVER EASTERN
ND AND CONTINUED EASTWARD SLIDE INTO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY
FRI AND TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY 21 UTC. NORTHERN HALF CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY OF STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTROID...WITH GENERALLY
60-90M/12 HR FALLS SKIRTING NORTHERN CWA. ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AND
HIGH NEAR SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY
WX FOR ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CWA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THOUGH AS DEEPER CAA BEGINS TO SETTLE IN NWRN CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON RAMPED POPS 21-24 UTC TIMEFRAME WITH LAKE/8H
DIFFERENTIALS BEGINNING TO RAMP/REACHING LOWER 20C RANGE BY
SHORT/LONG TERM TIMEFRAME CROSSOVER. CONTINUED SIMILAR TO PRIOR
FORECAST TOWARD HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH EXPECTATION OF
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON INSOLATION WITHIN INCREASINGLY DEEPER MIXED
BLYR WITH WESTERN FRINGE OF THERMAL TONGUE OVER SERN CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

SEPARATE PV ANOMALIES / ONE COMPACT OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND ANOTHER
BAROTROPIC LOW CENTERED NEAR LAKE HURON PER AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR /
WILL PHASE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PLACE THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN A COOL/PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
UNDER THE RESULTING NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. A SERIES OF SMALLER
SCALE VORTS WITH PASSAGE OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA/LAKE ACTIVATION IN VEERED NWRLY FLOW...WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DECENT LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT ON SW
PERIPHERY OF CONSOLIDATED SOUTHEAST CANADA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS 20-30 MPH ON SATURDAY...WITH WHEN COMBINED WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WILL RESULT IN A RATHER RAW/CHILLY
SATURDAY. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BETTER WEEKEND DAY
BEFORE THE NEXT MORE PRONOUNCED CLIPPER-LIKE SHORTWAVE DROPS IN
AROUND MONDAY. LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES OVERALL HAVE TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS LIGHT WAA PCPN RESULTING IN
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS LOCALLY. OTHERWISE...THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK (TUE-THU) APPEARS DRY/COOL (NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW) IN BETWEEN A
MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST CUT-OFF LOW AND AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

WESTERN EDGE OF CLEARING WAS STRUGGLING TO WORK EAST INTO THE AREA
WITH MVFR CIGS STILL IN PLACE AT BOTH SITES. KSBN STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE CLEARING SKIES...BUT CONSEQUENCES OF THIS COULD BE
FORMATION OF FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR NOW HOLDING WITH MVFR INTO
MID MORNING THEN SOME CLEARING WITH PERIOD OF VFR CIGS BEFORE
CLOUDS ARRIVE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NEXT WAVE AND STRONGER COLD
FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT LOOKS
TO RESIDE MAINLY NORTH OF BOTH SITES BUT WILL BE A CLOSE
CALL...ESPECIALLY AT KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


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