Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 251003
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
603 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 558 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. DEEP
MIXING WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
RAISED WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
FAVORED THE GFS TREND THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS TOWARD A SLOWER AND MORE
NORTHWEST LOW TRACK SOLUTION. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR STORMS TODAY...
BUT INCREASING MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN INTO FAR NORTHERN INDIANA.

THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED SOME STORMS MAY BE MARGINALLY
SEVERE OVERNIGHT. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES. SURFACE BASED NAM CAPES SHOULD
RISE ABOVE 500 J/KG AS FAVORABLE 0-3KM SHEAR RISES TO 40 M/S. SO
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE FROM LATE EVENING UNTIL ABOUT
4 AM EDT WITH SOME STORMS STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THIS LONG
TERM PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS LOW GIVEN MODEL PERFORMANCE AND
WAVERING WITH THIS FIRST SHORT WAVE TO START THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES
FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE AND
SFC LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA. STILL MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE. DID ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO
CONTINUE BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN CATEGORICAL YET. BASICALLY
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND IN DAYS 4-7 WITH SLIGHT LOWERING OF POPS FROM
LIKELY TO CHANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH CONVECTION AND STACKED
SYSTEM IN PLAINS LATE WEEK LIKELY COMING OUT SLOWER THAN MODEL
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER WED AND THU WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
PCPN CHANCES. TEMPS WILL TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

DEEP MIXING TODAY WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD TOP 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON. ADDED SOME TIMING TO SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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