Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 301915

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
315 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

An upper low near the Ohio River will begin to drift north
tonight and should be over northern Indiana Saturday afternoon.
Showers and a few storms are possible Saturday with lingering
showers possible into Sunday. Highs through the weekend will be in
the 60s with lows in the 50s. High pressure will bring slowly
improving conditions early next week.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Cold core upper low nr KEVV this afternoon will begin to lift ne
into sw OH by late tonight up twd KTOL by Sat evening. Primary nr
term focus resides invof of sfc occlusion through cntrl IN and north
across lower MI within mid lvl deformation zone and low level theta-
e ridge. Disorganized forcing in between suggests truncating prior
pops to no more than high chc going forward in line with 12Z mos
trends sans far south in proximity of sfc occlusion.

Otherwise northward pinwheel of mid lvl cyclone Sat along with more
focused mid level ascent should promote additional showers across
the ern half of the cwa.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Western flank of mid lvl deformation zone expected to wrap sewd into
the ern lakes Sun aftn as closed low accelerates newd through New
England. Will hold with low chc pop ern areas yet drop west as
fairly aggressive ll neg theta-e advection develops through the wrn

Beyond that pattern reversal aloft develops as mid lvl ridge builds
in behind departing upper trough over New England with commensurate
ramp of ll thermal ridge through the Oh Valley. This will yield a
vigorous warming trend through mid week if not longer as new sys
lifting out of the wrn US slows its eastward progress upstream of
hurricane Matt.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

The upper low near the Ohio River will lift north tonight and
should be over northern Indiana Saturday afternoon. Some bands of
showers were rotating around the low and were spreading into the
Ft Wayne area. Thunder was reported in Lima and Auburn, so have
included a thunder group early in the TAF there. Otherwise, expect
IFR conditions again tonight with the approach of the center of
the upper low.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.




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