Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 160827

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
327 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

Issued at 322 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

A pattern shift will bring near to above normal temperatures to
the region this weekend into next week. There is a chance for
light rain and drizzle Sunday afternoon into Monday. Quiet weather
conditions are expected otherwise through the middle of next week.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

Upper level heights will be on the rise today into tonight
promoting much milder conditions as wsw flow deepens on the
backside of high pressure. Still could see some very light snow or
flurries early this morning across northeast zones on the southern
fringe of a corridor of 925-850 mb frontogenesis. This relatively
weak warm frontal feature will clear off to the north with cloud
cover gradually diminishing from sw to ne, though warming at the
surface to be somewhat limited across the north thanks to snow
cover and limited mixing. Shortwave ridge axis then overspreads
tonight in advance of an approaching southern stream wave with
continued dry/benign wx.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

This milder split/progressive flow regime will persist Sunday
through the middle of next week resulting in little chance for any
hazardous wx. A southern stream upper level shortwave will shear
east-northeast into the region bringing a chance for light rain by
Sunday afternoon (could see some snow mix in given marginal thermal
profiles/evaporative cooling). Model soundings continue to suggest
chances for lingering drizzle and perhaps some fog into Sunday night
and Monday as low levels moisten, weak boundary lingers in advance
of a separate positively tilted trough, and any moisture within the
ice production layer gets stripped away. Drier air/sfc high pressure
then settles in by Tuesday and Wednesday in between streams.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1250 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

South to southwest surface flow will continue over northern
Indiana through the TAF period as a high pressure system remain
southeast of the Ohio River and low pressure developing over the
Central Plains. A weak clipper type of system was tracking across
Lower Michigan at the start of the period. The best lift and all
snow should stay north of the terminals. Although the airmass was
rather dry at the onset, low level moisture will be increasing
today and will increase the chances for fog just beyond the end
of the TAF period.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for



SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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