Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 221738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
138 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

Issued at 411 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Cooler and less humid conditions will dominate through Tuesday
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The next chance for
showers and thunderstorms will arrive Wednesday as another front


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

High pressure will drift across the region through tonight and
bring dry and cool conditions with highs in the middle to upper
70s. Closed upper low will begin to dig into the western plains
Tuesday and allow slowly increasing heights and slightly warmer
temperatures into the lower 80s.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 411 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Upper level trough will attempt to dig further into the Plains
into mid week with an increasing southwest flow to usher moisture
and precip chances back into the area. Previous grids brought
likely pops into NW areas Weds evening as cold front approaches
and moisture is maximized and kept this course. Models varied on
eastern extent of likely pops late Weds night so have stayed
conservative and held mid to high chc.

Front will linger in the SE Thursday with chc pops warranted before
drier air overtakes the area Thurs ngt into Friday night. The next
trough will attempt to move into the area Saturday night but
struggle to work east and may retrograde somewhat as upper level
ridging tries to push back. Super blend was all messed up with
spurious slgt chc and chc pops with no real reasoning as to why.
Went with 14 pops for Sunday as main forcing looks to be west before
next wave possibly moves in Sunday night into Monday. No major temp
swings with highs in the middle 70s to lower 80s


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Low level anticyclone and building mid level ridge axis into the
region will continue to provide tranquil weather through this
period. Good radiational cooling conditions tonight should promote
similar patchy early morning fog for outlying areas...but
currently not expecting significant impacts for the terminals and
will maintain VFR conditions. Weak lake breeze has formed this
afternoon but low level gradient should remain strong enough to
keep this lake breeze from making it to KSBN. Southwest-south
winds should continue this period as the sfc anticyclone slowly
shifts eastward.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Fisher

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