Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 150606

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
206 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Issued at 151 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

A cold front will propel a band of decaying showers across the area
overnight and into Sunday morning. Otherwise winds will turn
northwest and become gusty with falling afternoon temps. Morning
highs in the mid 60s to 70 will fall through the 50s this afternoon.
A few lake effect rain showers are possible this evening. Otherwise
lows tonight will be in the 40`s with highs on Monday in the 50`s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Potent sw trough over MN will continue ewd into wrn QB this aftn.
Deepening sfc reflection over ern WI will likewise eject rapid newd
allowing cold frontal zone currently over wrn IL to accelerate east
across the lakes/OH valley near term. However frontal scale
circulation will essentially collapse as this unfolds with sig ewd
reductions in shra extent/pops warranted especially in consideration
of unfavorable timing and notable upstream decay taking place across
IL currently.

Otherwise strong cold advection wing will sweep sewd post frontal
with morning highs giving way to falling aftn temps through the 50s.
Brief but favorable lake MI induced thermal troughing maximizes this
evening yet expected to decay rapidly thereafter with strong
subsidence aloft and potent boundary layer drying and will limit pop
mention through 06Z.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

High zonal flow develops early this period with broad ewd thermal
ridging expanding with time esp late week timed with eventual Conus
negative pna pattern development. Similar to past days will again
hedge warmer in outer periods especially dys 5-8.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

A pre-frontal trough is on KSBN`s doorstep as of 540Z, and will
bring with it a few thunderstorms, brief heavy rain, and a temporary
wind shift to the west, before winds back slightly to the southwest
again. In it`s wake is the actual cold front, which will bring
additional rainfall to the site through morning. Expect conditions
to drop mainly to MVFR during heavier showers/thunderstorms, with
maybe even a brief dip to IFR not out of the question. Similarly,
KFWA will finally get some rainfall later tonight, and current time
of arrival appears to be around 10-12Z. Shower activity post-frontal
passage is a bit uncertain for both sites, but have kept the VCSH in
through the afternoon to account for this.

Meanwhile, a strong LLJ will move overhead, bringing a brief period
of wind shear at both sites until winds can mix down to the surface
towards the later morning and afternoon hours. Expect a gradual wind
shift to the northwest with gusts up to around 25-30 knots.


LM...Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday for




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