Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 221021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
621 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Issued at 321 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

One more day of warm temperatures in store for the region with
highs reaching into the middle to possibly upper 80s. A weak front
will drop into the area Friday through Saturday and bring slightly
cooler air and a outside chance for showers. Highs will be in the
70s northeast to the lower 80s southwest.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Convection has been running rampant across portions of Minnesota,
Wisconsin and far NE Iowa much of the night with life threatening
flooding on north side of Twin Cities. Luckily for us, frontal
boundary was located well north of the area allowing for any
convection to remain from SE Minnesota into Wisconsin. Only
concerns from these storms will be cirrus blow off from earlier
storms to the west and the impacts on what will be another hot day
by late Sept standards. Locations in the SE were able to manage
middle 80s without breaking much of a sweat and similar setup may
take place today with highs reaching into the upper 80s. Locations
to the NW will be warmer, but have remained conservative due to
cirrus coverage. If this dissipates sooner than expected temps may
need a further nudge upwards.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Trough will move across the northern Great Lakes, forcing the
frontal boundary responsible for the flooding issues across MN/WI
south into N/NE sections of the area Fri/Fri ngt and progress
south from there. Moisture by this point will be much more limited
with little more than slgt chance pops warranted in N/NE areas.
Slight cooling will take place across the area, but still holding
above normal through the weekend.

Upper level trough will dig into the plains with increase in heights
over the region Sunday into Monday before the main trough edges
closer to the region. Models continue to vary with handling of
closed low and impacts on the area. 00Z ECMWF has went a different
direction with upper level low ejecting northeast towards Hudson Bay
Mon/Mon ngt while GFS has upper low over N Minnesota. Both models do
converge somewhat mid to late week with respect to trough over the
east/northeast states resulting in trending towards near or possibly
below normal temps. Guidance has backed off on much colder air
resulting in little change to previous forecast temp wise.
Precipitation is a bit tougher but still enough signals to maintain
slgt chance to chance pops in later periods.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

VFR through the period as ridge persists through the Ohio Valley.




LONG TERM...Fisher

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