Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 211832
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
232 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
BREEZES. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND MAY GIVE RISE TO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

PV ANOMALY ASSOCD/W INTENSE SW OVR NRN WI WILL DIVE RAPIDLY SEWD
INTO NRN IN BY MIDDAY AS LG SCALE MID LVL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SHARPLY
SEWD. SFC CDFNT IN ASSOCN/W THIS SYS EXTENDS FM WRN LK MI SWWD INTO
CNTRL IN AND WILL CLEAR ERN CWA BY DAYBREAK. SRN FLANK OF CONVN
ALG THIS FTR WILL CARRY EWD THROUGH SRN MI OTRWS SCT SHRA/TSRA
CONT TO FESTER WITHIN DOWNSTREAM WAA OVERTOP LEFT OVER OUTFLW
BUBBLE FM CONVN LAST EVENING YET ON THE WAY OUT OVR FAR SERN ZONES.
AGAIN THOUGH XPC ALL OF THIS WILL BE EAST OF CWA BY SUNRISE AND
WILL THEN AWAIT ARRIVAL OF MID LVL TROUGH ACRS THE NW CWA TWD THE
NOON HOUR FOLLOWED BY RAPID SEWD PIVOT THROUGH MID AFTN.

POST FNTL AIRMASS GETS GUTTED AS STG CAA WING DRIVES SEWD THROUGH
THIS MORNING. PALTRY LEFT OVR RESIDUAL LL THETA-E IN COMBINATION
W/INNOCUOUS VERTICAL ASCENT WARRANT TEMPERING POPS AS REFLECTED
BOTH IN MOS TRENDS AND SEEN IN NEARLY ALL HIGHRES SOLUTIONS.

TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER VS YDA/S UNSEASONABLY WARM READINGS
W/HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SFC RIDGE BLDS EAST OVERNIGHT W/CLRG
AND WILL FOLLOW COLDER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE PARKING TO THE EAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE SEEN
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF RIDGE AXIS. MORNING LOWS
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING ONLY
INTO THE 60S AND THEN BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY ON...SLOW MODERATION WILL TAKE PLACE WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND NO SIGNS OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM ABOUT
MADISON TO BIG RAPIDS. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT IN ADDITION TO THE
UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT WAS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. ADDED
SHOWERS IN THE SBN TAF AND EXTENDED THE MVFR CONDITIONS TO 23Z
GIVEN THE LATEST SURFACE RADAR...SATELLITE...OBS AND THE LOCATION
OF THE COLD FRONT. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE CLOUDS FORMING UNDER THE
BASE OF A DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE HELD OFF
EXTENDING LOW CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT AT SOUTH BEND GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FETCH.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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