Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 200929

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
429 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

Issued at 223 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Very wet and mild weather will continue through Wednesday morning.
Heavy rainfall will lead to flooding on rivers, streams, and low
lying areas prone to flooding. Temperatures will rise to record
or near record highs today from 65 to 72 degrees. Cooler and drier
air should return to the area accompanied by a light wintry mix
Wednesday into Thursday.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

River flooding and some areal flooding was already underway with
event rainfall totals so far closing in on 3 inches over
northwest Indiana. There was still plenty of convection in the
warm sector with the front northwest of Chicago and Grand Rapids.
Ample rain on the way. Have issued flood warnings for many
counties given ongoing flooding reports, observed/mesonet rainfall
amounts and radar rainfall estimates. Substantial rises on many
river will cause many to reach moderate and some to reach major
stage. The latest GFS ensemble run has several rivers reaching
major flood stage at some point this week. Indications continue of
a rather extreme precipitation event with precipitable water
values between 1.3 and 1.5 at times. A note from the Lincoln
Illinois office revealed the 00Z run from last night (evening run)
had the precipitable water value at 1.33" (which was a record).
Will continue the flood watch into Wednesday afternoon as more
rounds of rain develop in the warm sector and then along/ahead of
the front.

Much colder air will spread underneath the warm air early
Wednesday as the front moves southeast. A brief wintry mix is
possible. Given very mild temperatures at the onset and given a
brief mix, believe there should not be any significant travel
issues Wednesday morning.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

Much colder air will continue to spread across the area Wednesday
night with temperatures falling below freezing by daybreak. A
wintry mix may cause travel issues by Thursday morning. More rain
from Thursday night into Saturday will aggravate ongoing flood
issues. Highs Friday through Monday will be generally in the 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1231 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

Little change in forecast thinking this period with main front
setup near KSBN providing focus for training moderate to heavy
showers and some thunder in vicinity. Dry slot has worked through
KFWA and they may only see a passing shra and remain VFR until
after daybreak. KSBN will remain in MVFR/VFR with periods of
moderate to heavy rain reducing VIS at times to around 2SM. Not
much improvement until late in period or just after once frontal
passage occurs late Tue night.


IN...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for INZ003>009-012>018-

MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for MIZ077>081.

OH...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for OHZ001-002-004-005-

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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