Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 221007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
607 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Issued at 606 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure will provide several more days of dry and warm
weather to the region. Highs today will range from the lower 70s
over south central Lower Michigan to near 80 over west central
Indiana...the exception being near Lake Michigan where
temperatures will be in the 65 to 70 degree range. Lows tonight
will range from 45 to 50. Temperatures will continue to gradually
warm...reaching the lower 80s on Tuesday.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 439 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Last vestiges of mid level moisture/altocu associated with departing
vortex now over northern PA to dive sewd into mid Atlantic region by
daybreak monday allowing deep ridge sfc/aloft to dominate. Dry air
and deep layer subsidence for abundant insolation today/zero pops.
Only minor accentuation in ne/sw gradient across cwa/demarcation
btwn departing low level thermal trof and increasingly developed
upstream warm pool over western portion of Upper/western Great Lakes.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 439 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Continued delay with respect to onset of precip chances with
increased w/e gradient pops tuesday night given upstream deep layer
southerly flow to maintain sharp leading edge to deep layer theta-e.
Otherwise little deviation to blended approach with best chance
shra/tsra on wed/wed night as northern periphery of Great Lakes
ridge continues to retreat/flatten amid ejections of several
upstream shortwaves. Overall consensus for trof to redig over
western conus this weekend to maintain cwa within diurnally unstable
warm sector/myriad of outflow boundaries for persistent/long
duration chances shra/tsra. did remove lake shadow/inland bleed
of temps...given strong srly/offshore component flow.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 605 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Weak high pressure along with a weak pressure gradient will help
maintain VFR conditions throughout the TAF period with winds
around 10 knots or less. Some daytime cumulus is expected, but
the cloud deck should remain scattered above 3000 feet.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Murphy

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