Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 221848
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
248 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016

SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE INTO THIS EVENING...LEAVING BEHIND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AND WELL INTO THE 70S
FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FINALLY
LIFTING EAST WITH TROF AXIS NOW ALONG IN/OH STATE LINE...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. KIWX
RADAR SHOWING BAND OF PRECIP ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE IN
DEFORMATION ZONE FROM NW OHIO BACK INTO NE INDIANA. HIRES MODELS
SHOWING DECENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN UPPER LOW MOVING OVER
TOWARD EASTERN OHIO THIS EVENING AND PRECIP GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN
OVER THE EASTERN CWA BEFORE FINALLY ENDING IN THE FAR SE SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z. LIMITED BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...500-1000J/KG
CAPE...STILL EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO KEEP MENTION
OF THUNDER IN THE SE CWA AS NLDN SHOWING A COUPLE STRIKES TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A PLEASANT START TO THE
WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY BRINGING TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE MID
70S OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON BREEZY SW WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016

ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FIRST
SYSTEM WILL STILL BE MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE AREA AS THE SECOND
SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND MOVE UP INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...OFFERING JUST A SLIGHT BREAK IN
PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY AFTN/NITE. A FAIRLY OPEN RETURN FLOW FROM
THE GULF SHOULD ALLOW FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP AHEAD OF WARM FRONT
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THEN SIMILAR TO FIRST
ONE...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS AND MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION TO PROVIDE
AND DRY AND QUIET WX DAY FOR FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS/LOWS GETTING INTO THE
70S/50S AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS...AND DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S/40S
BEHIND THEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FINALLY LIFTING
EAST WITH TROF AXIS NOW ALONG IN/OH STATE LINE. KIWX RADAR SHOWING
-SHRA WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM BACK INTO KFWA AND IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER FOR THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF TAF PERIOD. WHERE PRECIP HAS
PERSISTED...CIGS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED VFR/MVFR WHILE AT KSBN
WHERE PRECIP HAS ENDED...IFR/LIFR HAVE BEEN LOCKED IN MOST OF THE
DAY. AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH 00Z SAT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT LEADING TO VFR
REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT NE WINDS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JAL/FISHER
AVIATION...JAL


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