Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 191123

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
623 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Issued at 344 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Very wet and mild weather can be expected into Wednesday. Highs
will rise into the 50s to around 60 today, and then from 65 to 70
Tuesday. Periods of rain with an occasional rumble of thunder will
persist through Tuesday night. In addition to flooding on rivers,
areal flooding is likely, particularly over low lying and other
flood prone areas.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

The first round of rain has already arrived early this morning as
moisture had surged northeast with many rainfall amounts already
between 0.15" and 0.40" south and west of Warsaw by 4 am EST.
Periods of rain into Wednesday will cause hydrologic issues with
general amounts between 2 and 4 inches. Higher amounts are
possible where convective bands will likely produce more than 4
inches by late Wednesday. Several factors continue to be very
supportive for moderate to occasionally heavy rain for an extended
period. Precipitable water values per latest GFS will rise above
1.3 inches at times which would top the climatological values for
this time of year. NAEFS/ensemble mean precip water forecast
values exceed the 99.5% percentile/climate into Wednesday,
indicative of the potential for an extreme event. As mentioned
yesterday, an analog from Feb 29 to March 5 of 1976 produced 5.45
inches of rain at South Bend. WPC is supportive of of heavy
rainfall with widespread amounts by late Wednesday between 2 and 4
inches. After coordination with surrounding offices, have issued a
flood watch to highlight flooding concerns associated with these
rainfall amounts. There is a good chance highs Tuesday will set
records at both South Bend (current record 65) and Ft Wayne (67).


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 426 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Much colder air will spread across the area Wednesday behind a
strong cold front. Light snow accumulations are possible along
with water on pavement freezing Wednesday night setting the stage
for potential travel issues. Highs will recover into the 40s
Thursday, so any travel issues should end by late morning. More
rain is likely Friday/Saturday which will likely aggravate
ongoing flooding issues.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Forecast remains on track with deteriorating conditions this
morning. Periods of moderate to heavy rain and isolated thunder
will continue through entire period with meandering surface
boundary and strong low level jet and moisture advection into the
region. Expect conditions to at KFWA to jump around categories
from MVFR to IFR with heavier showers. KSBN should remain within
IFR and LIFR categories as fog continues to develop as warmer air
spreads over melting snowpack. Stopped short of dropping VIS to
1/4sm but not out of question between showers. Low level wind
shear also will continue entire period with screaming low level
jet of 50-65 kts.


IN...Flood Watch from noon EST /11 AM CST/ today through Wednesday
     afternoon for INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...Flood Watch from noon EST today through Wednesday afternoon for

OH...Flood Watch from noon EST today through Wednesday afternoon for



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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