Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 240830

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
430 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Issued at 423 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Showers will become widespread by late today as an upper low moves
into the area. A few storms are possible; however, the storms are
not expected to become severe. Highs should be mostly in the 60s;
however, some 70s are possible where there are enough breaks in
the clouds. For Friday through Monday, the best chances for
showers and storms are Saturday night and Sunday. Most of the
holiday weekend will be dry with highs in the 70s to around 80.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 416 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

An upper low was over Iowa early this morning. This low will drop
south and then recurve north and bring a round of showers and a
few storms to the area today and tonight. Prefer the ECMWF that
appears to maintain better consistency than the other models and
also supports the potential for rainfall amounts over an inch by
Thursday morning. Severe storms are not expected given clouds and
limited instability. However, localized flooding is possible
especially where any bands of heavier rain set up. Rain will
diminish late tonight and Thursday as the system accelerates east.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 416 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

The upper level flow will become more west with moderating
temperatures by Friday. Highs should be in the 70s to around 80
from Friday through Monday. There is still some uncertainty
concerning the timing of showers and storms during this period.
Rejected the model blend given an apparent wet bias and
unrealistic shower/storm chances most periods. Limited forecast
showers and storms to Friday night,Saturday night and Sunday given
the timing of the next system. Most of the holiday weekend will
be dry with temperatures near normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1235 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Upr low over IA will drop swd into the TN valley by this evening.
Heating/destabilization into early aftn will result in rapid shra
dvlpmnt as mid lvl deformation based forcing spreads in across the
area. Thus expect a gradual reduction in flight conditions through
this aftn with mvfr likely invof KFWA. Somewhat drier air in place
invof KSBN with slower saturation expected resulting in likely mvfr
conditions later this evening. Will reaccess with 12Z fcst.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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