Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 202342

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
742 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016

Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri May 20 2016

A slow moving upper level disturbance will bring a chance of light
rain showers tonight, with the greatest coverage expected along
and south of Route 24. A few isolated rain showers may persist
into Saturday, mainly across portions of northeast Indiana and
northwest Ohio. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s. Dry
weather will dominate through Tuesday as high pressure drifts
across the region. High temperatures will be well into the
70s...with some locations seeing 80 or more by mid week.


Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri May 20 2016

A slow moving upper level disturbance across the mid MS Valley
will work its way across the Ohio Valley through Saturday
afternoon. Increasing upper level forcing with this wave and weak
isentropic upglide across the area should support continued
northward advancement of light rain showers this evening. Some
enhanced low level convergence in association with inverted trough
appears to be aiding rain coverage across portions of
central/north central Indiana. With above trends, may make just
some slight adjustments to the going forecast to increase PoPs
across southern half or southeast half of the forecast area, with
a slightly faster ramp up this evening, but overall idea of
previous forecast will be maintained. Low level easterly flow
will maintain a relatively dry subcloud layer through this rain
event, which should temper amounts despite the prolonged timing
across the southeast.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 352 PM EDT Fri May 20 2016

Not much change from update earlier with weak area of low
pressure developing across the ohio valley will send a surge of
increased moisture and lift that will graze the southeast third of
the area tonight. Hi res models have backed off on nw extent of
the showers and went back to a more reasonable setup warranting
holding onto low end likely pops in the far se tonight. Rainfall
amounts should be under a tenth of an inch in many cases.

Skies will quickly clear across the nw half of the area but be a
touch slower in se portions as the upper level system slowly edges
east. By afternoon, should see a good deal of sunshine with
temperatures responding, climbing into the 70s for all but far
southeast areas where clouds will linger longest and also along
the lake shore.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 352 PM EDT Fri May 20 2016

Fairly status quo on the long term forecast with high pressure
dominating conditions through at least Tuesday. A series of waves
will eject from the southwest and move northeast...mainly
impacting locations near or west of the Mississippi River. As we
get closer to Wednesday/Wednesday night chances to increase as one
of the stronger waves does get close enough to give a more
favorable chance for showers and storms. mex guidance points
towards highs in the 80s...but given potential cloud cover and
precip chances will keep temps somewhat subdued for now with
superblend working well for the time being.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri May 20 2016

A slow moving upper level trough to the west combined with some
weak low level warm moist advection should support continued
northward push to light rain showers across northern Indiana this
evening. Strongest advective forcing should be confined to
northeast Indiana, and with easterly flow maintaining a
relatively dry subcloud layer across the area, greater confidence
of measurable rain is limited to KFWA at this time. Slow evolution
of this forcing will keep rain chances at KFWA through late
tonight, although precip amounts should be on the light side.
Given the dry subcloud layer, confidence in MVFR cigs remains too
low for inclusion, and will maintain VFR conditions through this
period for the 00Z TAFS.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Fisher

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