Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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460
FXUS63 KIWX 260907
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
507 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 406 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

A cold day by late June standards is in store for the region with
highs only reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s. A series of
disturbances may bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to the
area through early evening. Tuesday will be dry with slightly
warmer temperatures. Rain chances will increase Wednesday night
into early Thursday and Friday into early Saturday with locally
heavy rain possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Today will be the coolest of the next several days as highs reach
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Series of weak disturbances noted on
water vapor and also reflected on radar with light showers here and
there from north central Indiana back into southern Wisconsin. Hi
Res models all shows at least some limited shower development the
remainder of the night into Monday morning with HRRR slightly more
robust with a few heavier showers/isol thunder. Afternoon heating
across the south as well as slightly steeper lapse rates from cold
pool aloft may also allow for isolated showers south of US-30. Hi
res models have backed a fair amount on coverage/location of this
activity with much of it either isolated and/or south of the area.
Enough factors still in play to warrant holding onto slgt chc to chc
pops through the day, focused north in the morning and then just
about anywhere afternoon. A few of the stronger showers or storms
could product locally gusty winds and some small hail given 500 mb
temps -20 to -22C.

A few showers may still linger early this evening, but expecting dry
conditions after as high pressure moves overhead. Lows will drop
into almost chilly values in the upper 40s to around 50 for late
June.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Tuesday still looks to be the driest of the upcoming days as high
pressure drifts overhead. Despite abundant sunshine, temperatures
will still be several degrees below normal. Upper level flow will
become somewhat zonal with a series of waves still expected to
move towards the Great Lakes by mid week with main trough digging
and moving in towards Friday.

Models continue to vary on eastward extent of convective potential
Weds afternoon into Thurs morning with one of these waves. GFS may
be suffering a touch of convective feedback, but nonetheless
signals a potential for heavy rainfall and possibly some severe
weather, mainly to locations just to our north and west.
Superblend of models increases pops to categorical late Weds ngt,
which at this juncture may be overdone. Inherited likely pops in
the NW Weds ngt and while some apprehension to leave in will keep
running with and remove any categorical mention. If rain can move
in, warm layer depth pushing 12,000 ft and PWATs around 1.75
inches would yield some efficient rainfall. Similar, if not
somewhat higher numbers come into play by Friday with what may be
more widespread coverage across the area, especially Fri
afternoon/evening. Have held with likely pops as well in this
period.

Drier conditions will move in for the weekend with rain chances in
the offing just outside the current forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Complex upper level flow pattern will continue this forecast
period. An upper level short wave across Wisconsin will drop
southeast overnight and may be associated with a few more isolated
showers across extreme northern Indiana/southern Lower Michigan.
Will keep TAFS dry due to expected low coverage and very low
confidence of shower occurring at terminals this morning.
Additional short wave energy will drop south-southeast from the
Dakotas, reaching the mid MS Valley toward midday. This short wave
may result in uptick in shower activity (isolated thunder
potential) this afternoon during peak heating, although best
chances may remain across northwest/west-central Indiana.
Instability profiles from near term forecast soundings also on the
meager side due to relatively deep mixing and thus will keep TAFS
dry at this time. With this deep mixed layer, west gusts to
around 20 knots are expected once again today, diminishing early
this evening. VFR conditions to persist this period with the
relatively dry air mass keeping cloud bases AOA 5k feet.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 504 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Winds and waves will increase through the day as 10 to 20 kts
winds occur with gusts to 25 kts. Wave model heights were coming
in much lower than buoy data with Cook buoy already in the 5 to 7
foot range and Michigan City a touch lower. While waves may
decrease somewhat through sunrise, expect them to pick up again.
For the lakeshore areas, this will translate to dangerous swim
conditions into tonight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fisher
SHORT TERM...Fisher
LONG TERM...Fisher
AVIATION...Marsili
MARINE...Fisher


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