Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 241859

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
259 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

An upper level ridge will provide dry conditions this weekend.
Highs today and Sunday will range from the mid 70s to low 80s.
Chances for rain showers will return Sunday night into Monday
morning, with breezy and cooler weather expected behind a strong
cold front Monday into Tuesday.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Upstream soundings showed moisture trapped under the base of a large
subsidence inversion with a cool east flow in the low levels. Lake
clouds with possibly some light lake enhanced showers were moving
southwest across Lake Erie toward northwest Ohio early this
afternoon. The strength of the inversion will greatly limit any
showers; therefore do not expect them to reach the forecast area.
However, clouds may linger well into this evening over portions of
northwest Ohio. Otherwise, skies should continue to clear overnight
with temperatures dropping well into the 50s. Highs Sunday should be
mostly in the 70s with an east to southeast flow. There is a small
chance for a shower near the Illinois border late in the day as a
front approaches.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

A fairly vigorous upper trof will become negatively tilted Sunday
night and will trigger a round of showers and scattered storms as
the system and associated front move east. Precipitable water values
per BUFKIT will top 2.0 inches as a narrow axis of moisture spreads
north ahead of the front. The ongoing timing of the showers and
storms appears on track for a mainly Sunday night event. The chances
for severe storms appears given very limited instability; however,
low level shear should reach 25 m/s.

Chilly air will spread south behind this system with temperatures
below normal toward the middle of the week. Very warm lake
temperatures will favor lake enhancement of showers Wednesday as
delta T values approach or exceed 15C.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Moisture-laden inversion and associated stratus finally mixing out
early this afternoon. Another hour or two of MVFR possible at KFWA
but expect primarily VFR from late afternoon into the evening.
Forecast soundings suggest stratus may redevelop late tonight but
moisture is more limited with slowly veering flow and confidence
is not high enough to introduce any ceiling reduction at this




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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