Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 132331

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
631 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017

Issued at 255 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017

High pressure will bring clear skies tonight with lows in the
lower 30s. Clouds will begin to increase Tuesday, especially
across Lower Michigan as a fast moving system moves across the
northern Great Lakes. A cold front will bring a brief spell of
more seasonable temperatures and possibly a few snow showers
Tuesday night otherwise the work week will remain mostly dry. The
cold air will rapidly depart by Friday with much above normal
temperatures settling in through the remainder of the period.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017

Nil weather concerns for the period as high pressure will slowly
drift southeast through the region. Clear skies will prevail much of
the day, with some mid/high clouds moving through at times,
especially during the day Tuesday ahead of the next front starting
out the long term period. Temperatures will be above normal for mid
February with highs in the middle 40s and lows in the upper 20s to
around 30.



.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017

Alberta clipper will pass well north of the area, but drag a
cold front through the region bringing a brief return to more
seasonable temperatures. Have maintained some marginal lake effect
snow showers near the lake but not expecting any accumulations.

Focus then shifts to dry and much warmer, especially into the
weekend as highs will reach the 50s by the weekend into early next
week. Haven`t gotten to fancy with exact temps, but trends suggest
that record highs may be in store Sat as some locations make a run
at the 60s. Increased lift and moisture extending from low pressure
in the Plains may bring increased rain chances by the end of the
period, but confidence too low to add any pops.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017

VFR conditions will continue tonight with high pressure and plenty
of dry air. During the day Tuesday, a trough will bring in moisture
and a reduction in CIGs is possible, but not enough confidence in
MVFR CIGs for inclusion at this time. Furthermore, an incoming
low level jet ahead of the trough passage will allow for low level
shear overnight tonight with the best chance at SBN, but it
appears too borderline for inclusion in TAFs. As the cool air
comes in behind the trough, the wind direction will be becoming more
westerly at both sites.


LM...Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through late Tuesday night for



LONG TERM...Fisher

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