Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 272014
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY RANGE
BETWEEN THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S...WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE LOW
80S ON THURSDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER AND SVR WX WILL QUICKLY END ACROSS THE
AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LARGE SCALE LOW-MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND EMBEDDED VORT MAX NOW WORKING THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES
SHIFTS EAST IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW. BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL
RIDGING TO WORK IN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RESULTING CLEARING
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND RESIDUAL SOIL/SFC MOISTURE FROM TODAY`S
RAINFALL MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE PATCHY GROUND FOG FORMATION
TOWARD DAYBREAK. DRY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE OTHERWISE TOMORROW WITH
HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION TO COMMENCE THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. FORCING WILL BE RELATIVELY
MEAGER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ATTENTION SHIFTS
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A CONSOLIDATING
UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...EXPECTING REMNANTS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO SPILL INTO
AREA AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. SHEAR
PROFILES SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MARGINAL HOWEVER...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR NOT AFFECTING THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS QUITE A BIT REGARDING PROGRESSION OF
THIS FRONT...WITH NAM REMAINING A SLOW OUTLIER. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT GIVEN MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...FRONTAL TIMING UNCERTAINTY...AND PERHAPS OVERALL LIMITED
INSTABILITY. TREND TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER
RELATIVELY QUICKLY FOR THE TUE-WED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT OVER A MODERATELY UNSTABLE/MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 20-22Z AT
KFWA AND THROUGH 19-20Z AT KSBN. BKN-OVC CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
OSCILLATE BETWEEN HIGH MVFR AND LOW VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT
EACH SITE. LIGHT WINDS AND DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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