Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 270838
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
438 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

STRONG UPR RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GRTLKS TO THE SERN U.S. THIS
MORNING WITH A CUT-OFF LOW OVER SRN IA/NRN MO. SHRTWV OVER SASK
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO QUEBEC/ONTARIO TONIGHT KICKING GRTLKS RIDGE
EASTWARD AND SHEARING OUT IA/MO CUT-OFF LOW. SOME CIRRUS STREAMING
NORTH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO OUR AREA ATTM SHOULD CONT
TODAY/TNGT BUT IT APPEARS RATHER THIN ON IR IMAGERY AND DOUBT IF IT
WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON INSOLATION/TEMPERATURES. PATCHY RADIATIONAL
COOLING FOG BEING REPORTED ACROSS NE PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
GRADIENT WEAKEST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPEST DUE TO TRAJECTORIES
OFF LAKES HURON/ERIE... SHOULD PERSIST PAST DAYBREAK... DISSIPATING
BY LATE MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT COMPARED TO
PAST 24HRS AS STAGNANT AIRMASS PERSISTS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN
THE U70S/L80S ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE L-M50S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT AT LEAST FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DVLP AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

WEAK FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL BE
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS PERIOD. KEPT CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS A DEEP DRY LAYER
PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY PER GFS BUFKIT WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AROUND OR BELOW 10 PERCENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF WHICH BEST SUPPORTS THIS FRONT IS AN OUTLIER
AMONG OTHER MODELS AND IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE PRESSURES LATE NEXT WEEK.
FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION IN THIS REGARD WITH DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 132 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NRN INDIANA WITH LIGHT E-NE LOW LEVEL
FLOW. EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG WILL FORM OVER THE AREA AGAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOWER OVER NE INDIANA DUE
TO FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE/HURON EARLIER TODAY. THUS, CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS FCST CALLING FOR IFR AT SBN AND LIFR AT FWA BY DAYBREAK.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY 13-14Z WITH JUST CIRRUS FOR CLOUDS
TODAY/THIS EVE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


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