Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 230006
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
806 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START SATURDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S REACH THE LOWER 70S WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. A NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
SUNDAY EVENING AND PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TROF SWEPT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPED 15 TO 18 DEGREES. THIS IS NOTED ON SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWA BORDER...WHILE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE IN THE LOWER 30S. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...WITH A SLIT EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
IN THE COOLER/DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
HRRR AND WRF BOTH SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PATCHY FROST
OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLOW APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR LATE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. UPPER LOW HAS MOVED ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN
CA AND WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...BERMUDA HIGH OVER
ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TOWARD SOUTHEAST COAST. RESULT
WILL BE RISING HEIGHTS OVER MIDWEST WITH BUILDING SHORT WAVE
RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER AND MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT BY
LATE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR
WIDESPREAD PCPN DEVELOPMENT BUT ANY SUBTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORT
WAVES OR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE COULD EASILY GENERATE ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BEGINNING SUNDAY GIVEN HIGH
PWATS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SMALL SCALE DETAILS REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN WITH QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND
DISAGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERAL ENSEMBLE BLEND APPROACH
USED FOR POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
SUPERBLEND PREFERRED. DID LOWER SUPERBLEND POPS SEVERAL PERIODS
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY BUT LEFT LOW END LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY IN
THE WEST. STAYED MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH TEMPS GIVEN POSSIBILITY
OF COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN OR WARMER WITH LACK OF PCPN AND
POTENTIAL MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR MET CONDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. LITTLE MORE
THAN HIGH ALTOCU/CIRRUS CLOUD COVER ASSOCD WITH IA/WCNTL IL
SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS THROUGH/DAMPENS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACRS UPR
GRTLKS. SFC FLOW TO DECOUPLE/VEER AS CENTROID OF SFC HIGH OVHD
SHIFTS SEWD. BY LATE AM SLIGHTLY HIR SUSTAINED SRLY FLOW AS BLYR
MIXES/RIDGE PUSHES OFF MIDATL COAST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...MURPHY


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