Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 041053
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
553 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST THE FEB 3 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDINESS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK AS BOUNDARY LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DENDRITIC GROWTH WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLIPPERY ROADS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT AS THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WAS
CAUSING SOME SLIPPERY SURFACES. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OBSERVED
AT THE NORTHERN INDIANA OFFICE AT 230 AM...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW.

LATER TODAY...WINDS WILL BACK AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES CAUSING THE
REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END. NEW SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVER MOST AREAS
TODAY AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE
AREA TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

INITIALLY WEAK PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH HIGH BELTED CLIPPER
INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT FOR SMALL CHC LIGHT SNOW NORTHERN CWA.
WARM SFC/BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER TO ALL BUT
NEGATE ACCUM POTENTIAL...SAVE FOR LOW T/0.1 INCH POTENTIAL PRIOR TO
NOON. GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPS THROUGH WEEKEND WITH INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG NORTHERN PERIPHERY MIDATL/GOMEX
RIDGE. HOWEVER TRANSITION TO SIG COLDER TEMPS DYS5-8 AS PRESENT
STRONG EPAC SYSTEM OBLITERATES DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND PHASES WITH
POLAR VORTEX BY TUE. SIG STRONGER/LOWER TRACKED CLIPPER FOR MIX RASN
SUN NIGHT/ERLY MON TIMEFRAME. THERMAL COLLAPSE TO ENSURE TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW LATER MON. MID TEENS/LK 8H DIFFERENTIALS TUE POSSIBLY TO
UPPER TEENS TUE NIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE HELD WELL UPSTREAM TO
ENSURE LAKE RESPONSE AND NUDGE HIGHER OVER BLEND TUE/TUE NIGHT
BEFORE BACKING FLOW/LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AID IN DWINDLED LES
INTO DY7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF SOUTH BEND AS WINDS REMAIN
OUT OF THE WEST. COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES CAUSING DECREASING CLOUDINESS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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