Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIWX 012355
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
755 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF
OUR AREA DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG AWAITED QUIET...DRY PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TRACKING...HAS SETTLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THIS DRY PERIOD WILL BE
CRUCIAL TO DRYING OUR LOCAL SOILS AFTER RECORD SETTING JUNE RAINS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL IN THE MID
70S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. ONLY TWEAK TO FRIDAY POPS WAS TO SHAVE A BIT
OFF NORTHERN EXTENT GIVEN LATEST TRENDS...AND JUST TO MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH. A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON THE HEELS OF THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE TO ALLOW FOR
MAINTENANCE OF A BROAD WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH LIKELY APPROACHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR
HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PASSAGE OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK
ANTICYCLONE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO RAMP UP A BIT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS...BUT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORIES WILL NOT BE OVERLY EFFICIENT IN TERMS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF INTEREST FOR THE LONG TERM STILL APPEARS TO
BE THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TRACKS ALONG NORTHERN TIER CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
ZONE...BUT CONTINUED TIMING UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANYTHING MORE
THAN A LOW TO MID CHANCE POP TSRA MENTION FOR ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD
MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS CONTINUES TO BE
THE EXPECTATION OF SEVERAL DRY DAYS BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT IN RIVER FLOODING STATUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S BY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AN UPSWING IN HUMIDITY
ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

BY AND LARGE ANTICIPATE VFR MET CONDS TO CONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PD ACRS NRN IN. LITTLE MORE THAN MID/UPR LEVEL
CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVERNIGHT. RELATIVELY HIGH XOVER TEMP/59F
AT KFWA PORTENDS TO BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION POTNL NEAR SUNUP.
THEREAFTER...BRIEF PD OF STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT WITH CIGS AROUND
2KFT AS MIXING ENSUES ALONG INITIALLY LOW LCL HGHTS. WITH TIME
MIXING OUT TO SCT HIR CU FIELD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.