Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 142358

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
658 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

Issued at 656 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

Colder, more seasonable temperatures will arrive behind a cold front
overnight along with a few flurries or light snow showers,
especially closer to Lake Michigan. Some lake effect snow showers
may linger into Wednesday morning. Highs on Wednesday will only
reach the lower to middle 30s. However, the cooler air will be short-
lived as warmer air surges back this weekend. Highs will reach well
into the 50s and even lower 60s this weekend into early next week.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

Cold front will sweep through the area late this afternoon into
this evening, bringing temperatures back closer to reality for mid
February. Clouds will increase along and behind the front and
linger through the period. Have added a mention of flurries behind
the front where limited lift and very shallow low level moisture
could squeeze out a few snow flakes. Very small potential that ice
growth may not occur and a brief period of freezing drizzle could
ensue. For now keeping it simple and deferring to eve shift.

Lake effect flurries/light snow showers are possible closer to the
lake as marginal delta t`s and meager moisture profiles limit any
accumulation. Lows will bottom out in the middle to upper 20s
with only minimal recovery into the lower to maybe middle 30s


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

Weak disturbance will be passing through the NW flow to bring
increased clouds, but rather lackluster moisture and lift Weds ngt
warranting little more than a slight chance mention of snow

Increasing southerly flow will setup starting Friday and
especially this weekend/early next week resulting in well above
normal, possibly record breaking highs in some areas with 60s
quite possible. Rain chances increase towards the middle of next
week, but issues abound on timing, amount and duration of rain.
Majority of offices have remained rather subdued with pops lending
to the low confidence shown in models lately. Will lower pops
against Superblend of models to high chc for the time being.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 656 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

A shortwave associated with a cold front dropping down from Canada
will allow for lower CIGs, gusty winds and a low chance for snow
showers or flurries. The front has quite the temperature gradient
and steep low level lapse rates allowing for gusty winds 20 to 30
kts early tonight. Rain showers are forming along this line in WI
and MI and would expect rain to be the initial precip type, but as
temps lower with increasing CAA could see a changeover or mixture
with snow showers with some lake response into Wednesday, but no
accumulation is expected. CIGs have mostly been VFR within the area
of precipitation and would expect that to continue as the line moves
through the area between around 3z and 6Z tonight. A better
chance for MVFR CIGs that may reach into Fuel Alt criteria comes
around 12z Wednesday morning especially at SBN as cooler air moves
in and lake enhanced cloud cover forms.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Fisher

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