Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 190556

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1256 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Issued at 1255 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Cloudy skies and mild temperatures will persist for the next
several days. It will remain dry today, however low pressure will
approach later tonight with rain that will likely linger into
Friday. Highs today will be in the middle to upper 40s. It will be
even warmer this weekend with highs well into the 50s Saturday and
Sunday with a lingering chance of rain.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Drab and quite short term as low level anticyclone over srn IL
shifts east into WV overnight. While some erosion in low cloud
deck noted over wrn/cntrl IL per vis imagery...doubt it will carry
downstream as low level subsidence inversion remains quite stout
per nearby 12Z raob data and will back away from prior cloud

Otherwise more substantive deep layer subsidence expected on Thu
as low level ridge axis weakens overhead under ramping sw flow
aloft. Thus partial insolation along with swelling low level
thermal ridging will allow most areas to push toward or exceed 50


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Warm/wet and more april like pattern to continue this period as
active sw flow aloft persists across the ern half of the US. Lead
disturbance over ne NM this aftn will wrapup into the upper
midwest before shearing out. As this sys carries ewd Thu
night...vigorous low level theta-e/moisture surge expected to race
newd into the lakes with cat pops warranted late Thu night-Fri
morning w-e.

Secondary sw disturbance follows in quickly behind lead wave late
Fri as tertiary sw amplifies ewd underneath through the mid MS
valley this weekend. While some potential for waa induced rain
possible Sat aftn far better chcs relegated to Sat night timed
with newd pivot of upper trough axis and weakening low level jet.
Muddle signals thereafter with track/wwd wrap of eventual deep
atlantic moisture tap into third sys and will defer to blend
given signal noise at this range. Regardless winter remains holed
up across AK/nrn Canada with continued much above normal temps
this period swd across the ern US.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1255 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Continued IFR to lower end MVFR ceilings into at least late
morning...then eventual break up of lower ceilings as southern
plains energy lifts northeast into the region. Increasing
lift/moisture advection to lend return of rainfall tonight
commensurate with return of widespread IFR conditions throughout
northern IN.





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