Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 230554
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1254 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S... WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPS OVER OUR AREA HOLDING STEADY THIS EVE AS FAIRLY STRONG WAA
CONTS. AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING ENE TOWARD SWRN PORTION OF CWA IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WK SHRTWV LIFTING ENE THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY. AS THIS MOVES IN TEMPS MAY FALL A BIT... BUT OVERALL GOING
MINS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE TOO LOW. UPDATED TO RAISE A CATEGORY
INTO THE M-U40S WITH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR ECMWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE HAS ALLOWED FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST INDIANA. EXPECTING KFWA TO EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS OF
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING. STILL EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO AFFECT KSBN AFTER THE
08Z-09Z PERIOD ALTHOUGH MAY BE MORE OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS NATURE
AS OPPOSED TO WIDESPREAD. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT KSBN THROUGH OF THE NIGHT ALSO. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KNOTS IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADING TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HAVE
OMITTED ANY TS MENTION ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW END PROB MAY EXIST FOR
ISOLD TSRA AFTER 00Z. AFTER A FEW MORE HOURS OF LLWS MENTION TO
BEGIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WILL REINTRODUCE THIS MENTION TO
COVER THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE FURTHER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BEFORE
SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


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