Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 172328
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
728 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016

A cold front will push east of the region overnight. Light winds
and moist ground will set the stage for areas of fog to develop
late tonight into Sunday morning. Afterwards increasing sunshine
and drier relative humidity will make for pleasant conditions
Sunday and Monday. Another frontal system will bring a low chance
for showers and storms Monday night. Lows tonight will be in the
upper 50s to lower 60s and highs on Sunday will be 75 to 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016

Downtrend in shower coverage will continue this afternoon into early
this evening across ne IN/nw OH as deep moisture plume tied to
pre-frontal trough exits east. Dry conditions are expected
tonight with areas of fog possible later tonight/early Sunday
given light winds and drying/partial clearing over a moist near
sfc layer.

Shortwave trough and area of weak mid-level DCVA across the central
High Plains will translate through the local area Sunday afternoon.
A blossoming CU field should result as low level lapse rates
steepen. A very isolated sprinkle/shower cannot be ruled out, yet
held onto dry fcst given a lacking supply of moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016

Flow pattern will briefly flatten out for the early-middle part of
next week as powerhouse northeast Pacific upper jet races eastward
along the US/Canada border. A low amplitude shortwave on the leading
edge of this feature is progged to send a weakening cold front
through Monday night. Poor diurnal timing, shallow/limited moisture
return, and northward displacement of deeper moisture/ascent (with
continued height rises locally) doesn`t suggest very good rain/storm
chances with this frontal passage. Dry otherwise Monday through
Wednesday with temps overall averaging slightly above normal.

The second half of the week into Saturday favors a more amplified
pattern as troughing into the Western US/Northern Plains yields
downstream ridging across the Eastern US. Mainly dry conditions and
above normal temps will likely result as active baroclinic zone sets
up across the Upper midwest/Northern Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 719 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016

expecting drier air to move into ne IN overnight though may not
reach ne zones. As a result fog a higher likelihood due to
precipitation earlier today. included a tempo group at KFWA of 2
miles though it may be lower for brief periods. Winds will
increase to above 5 kts later sun morning and remain mainly
westerly.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Murphy
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Frazier


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