Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 241603

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1203 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Issued at 423 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Rain showers with isolated thunderstorms are expected late this
afternoon and overnight. Some areas could see up to 1 inch of
rain, which could lead to flooding in already saturated
agricultural areas and along rivers. Northerly winds will kick up
3 to 5 ft waves and dangerous currents on Lake Michigan by late
afternoon, so people visiting the beaches should stay out of the
water. There is a chance for rain showers Thursday, Saturday
night, and Sunday. Thunderstorms are possible Saturday night into
Sunday. Severe weather is not expected. Highs will be in the upper
60`s and 70`s, coolest near Lake Michigan.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 416 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

An upper low was over Iowa early this morning. This low will drop
south and then curve north and bring a round of showers and a few
storms to the area today and tonight. Prefer the ECMWF that
appears to maintain better consistency than the other models and
also supports the potential for rainfall amounts over an inch by
Thursday morning. Severe storms are not expected given clouds and
limited instability. However, localized flooding is possible
especially where any bands of heavier rain set up. Rain will
diminish late tonight and Thursday as the system accelerates east.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 416 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

The upper level flow will become more west with moderating
temperatures by Friday. Highs should be in the 70s to around 80
from Friday through Monday. There is still some uncertainty
concerning the timing of showers and storms during this period.
Rejected the model blend given an apparent wet bias and
unrealistic shower/storm chances most periods. Limited forecast
showers and storms to Friday night,Saturday night and Sunday given
the timing of the next system. Most of the holiday weekend will
be dry with temperatures near normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Upr low over IA will drop swd into the TN valley by this evening.
Heating/destabilization into early aftn will result in rapid shra
dvlpmnt as mid lvl deformation based forcing spreads in across the
area. Thus expect a gradual reduction in flight conditions through
this aftn with mvfr likely invof KFWA. Somewhat drier air in place
invof KSBN with slower saturation expected resulting in likely mvfr
conditions later this evening.


Issued at 1150 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Waves of 3 to 4 feet will approach the shore at a 60 to 90 degree
angle by late this afternoon as they build to around 5 feet. Wave
periods will gradually lengthen to 5 to 6 seconds. These
conditions are supportive of strong rip current development within
sandbars, and strong structural currents near piers and
breakwalls. Furthermore, water temperatures are in the 50`s, which
can lead to hypothermia. People visiting the beaches of Lake
Michigan today should stay out of the water. Issued a small craft
advisory and a beach hazards statement for the dangerous


IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for MIZ077.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to noon EDT
     Thursday for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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