Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 242326
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
726 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE
DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT... WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE
MID 50S WITH HIGHS MONDAY 75 TO 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

UPR LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
EAST TO THE UPR MS VALLEY BY MONDAY EVE. STNRY FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM SD SFC LOW TO SRN WI/MI SHOULD MOVE LITTLE THROUGH MONDAY AS
WKNG LOW MOVES ESE ALONG IT. S-SW FLOW WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO GRDLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY. DIURNAL
HEATING AND CONTD WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MONDAY SHOULD DESTABILIZE
AIRMASS WITH MUCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 1KJ/KG IN THE AFTN.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED AS CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR, THOUGH
LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT. ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF LOW MOVG INTO WI
AND IN VCNTY OF STNRY FRONT OVER SRN MI SUGGESTING BEST CHANCES
FOR TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTION OF THE CWA. WEAK-MODERATE
INSTABILITY, 30-35KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND RATHER LOW WET BULB
ZERO AROUND 8-9KFT SUGGESTS IF STORMS DO DVLP MONDAY AFTN, A FEW
MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS AND HAIL APCHG SEVERE LIMITS. WAA AND
INCRSG GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE U70S/L80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE CHANCES SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE GIVEN KEY
TIMING OF FEATURES DESPITE AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITH COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNAL IMPACTS COULD HAMPER
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE AREA UNLESS A WELL DEFINED LINE
DEVELOPS TO THE WEST OR FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS QUICKER TO
ARRIVE. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS BUT LOWERED POPS THEMSELVES WITH
COVERAGE MAYBE ONLY WARRANTING MORE OF A SCT WORDING. MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT DOES EXIST ALTHOUGH CONDITIONAL ON ABOVE FACTORS.
WILL LEAVE MENTION IN HWO. WARM NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE WITH A SLOW
FALLOFF IN TEMPS MAINLY OVERNIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND GIVE A BRIEF
REPRIEVE...BUT ROLLER COASTER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS EACH WAVES MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH INCREASED
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WEDS INTO THURS NGT AND AGAIN SAT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD. SFC FLW WILL VEER SWRLY MON AHD OF
APCHG LOW PRES PROGRESSING OUT OF THE MN/IA VCNTY. GUSTS AOA 25KTS
LIKELY MON AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...T


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