Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 301902
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
302 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW DAYS OF MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER TROF AXIS AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
PUSHING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHRA IN NE
CWA...PRECIP HAS EXITED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A WELCOMED PERIOD OF DRY WX. SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE OVER
CENTRAL LOWER MI WILL PUSH EASTWARD AS WELL AND DRAG TRAILING COLD
FRONT THE AREA THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. ADDL RAINFALL FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY ADDED TO THE
ALREADY AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHILE MID LEVEL DRYING
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AREAS OF FOG THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT
ANTICIPATE A REPEAT AGAIN TONIGHT. WILL POPULATE GRIDS WITH AREAS
OF FOG FOR NOW AND LET EVENING SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR DENSE FOG
ADV. CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 10F
BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE M50S AND HIGHS L-M70S WITH
NOTICEABLE LAKE SHADOW IN WEAK W/NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONT IN A NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GTLKS
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL FRI WHEN
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS KY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP
TO THE THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES FRI/FRI NITE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EWD FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SCTD PRECIP DURING THE WEEKEND...MAINLY ON SUN. AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE OH VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH FRI THEN BEGIN WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING THE LOW 80S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT WAVE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. KIWX RADAR INDICATED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
MOVED EAST OF BOTH TAF SITES WHILE VIS SAT SHOWS AREA OF CLEARING
SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UP UNTIL
ISSUANCE TIME BUT THINKING NOW IS THAT KSBN WILL SCATTER OUT BY 18Z
AND KFWA NOT LONG AFTER. THAT LEAVES MAIN ISSUE THIS CYCLE OF
OVERNIGHT FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. BOTH SITES WENT DOWN TO LIFR
LAST NIGHT AND WITH ADDL RAINFALL THIS MORNING...MID LEVEL DRYING
WORKING IN TONIGHT...AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECT A REPEAT AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING JUST ABOVE AIRPORT MINIMUMS ATTM.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...JAL


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