Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 170636
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
236 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND BRING AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SCREAM INTO THE REGION WITH LOW 60
DEWPOINTS ALREADY INTO NE PARTS OF THE AREA WITH UPPER 60 TO NEAR
70 DEWPTS SOUTHWEST. NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO
TAKE SHAPE TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS. FOR TONIGHT...MODELS
HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND GIVEN
UPSTREAM TRENDS HARD TO ARGUE AT THIS POINT. MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE PERIOD COULD END UP DRY BUT WITH PROXIMITY OF FEATURES NOT
COMFORTABLE WITH ENTIRE 24 HOUR PERIOD DRY IN NORTHERN AREAS.
HAVE TRIED TO HAVE GRIDS REFLECT THIS WITH A LULL THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN THE SOUTH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST PRETTY MUCH AT ANY POINT THROUGH SUNDAY. BEST
CHANCE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY BUT EVEN THIS IS FAR FROM A
SLAM DUNK WITH MOST MODELS TRACKING BEST FORCING WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT DRAPED IN THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES LOW TO MID RANGE CHC POPS WARRANTED WITH MAV/ECE GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUPPORTING THIS TREND (MET HIGHER BUT DISMISSED BY
HPC).

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL TEMPS HAD THIS HANDLED WELL FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY SO NO
SIG CHANGES OTHER THAN TO LOWER HIGHS IN THE NORTH A AIR GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014

THE SUMMERTIME WARMTH WHICH HAS THWARTED THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE
SUMMER WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. NEITHER FORT WAYNE OR SOUTH BEND
HAS SEEN 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SINCE
THE END OF JUNE...BUT IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE THAT STREAK WILL BE
BROKEN IN THE 7 TO 10 DAY PERIOD.

IN THE MEANTIME...WE HAVE A DIFFICULT PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD. SEVERAL SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE AREA...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED
IN MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

MADE NO ADJUSTMENT TO ALLBLEND HIGH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE CUTS OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...DECENT FORCING ALOFT...AND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING...EXPECT DECENT STORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE RISK WILL REMAIN
LOW AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 30 KNOTS WITH WEAK
FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOPAUSE.

KEPT ALLBLEND SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO LEAVE...AND A WARM
FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO COOL JUST ENOUGH
FOR SOME MVFR FOG TO FORM. KEPT THE TREND IN THE ONGOING TAFS WITH
TEMPO 3SM TO 4SM FROM 10Z TO 13Z...WHICH MATCHES VERY WELL WITH
THE CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY DIURNAL TRENDS. REMOVED VCNTY SHOWERS
FROM THE FWA TAF. VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LAPSE RATES HAVE
NOT BEEN SUPPORTIVE OF MUCH SHOWER AND THUNDER DEVELOPMENT AS
EVIDIENT IN LIMITED DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT THAT WAS SAGGING
SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...BENTLEY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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