Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 281732
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
132 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT PROVIDING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO AROUND 80 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHRTWV MOVG ESE INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL CAUSE CUT-OFF UPR LOW OVER
IA TO SHEAR OUT WITH SUBSEQUENT WK/MOISTURE STARVED UPR LEVEL TROF
MOVG ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT AND WK LIFT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND ON BACKSIDE OF STRONG RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE ERN SEABOARD WILL CONT TO SUPPORT CIRRUS MOVG INTO/FORMING
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS TROF MOVES TO OUR EAST. CIRRUS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY
THIN/PATCHY TO ALLOW MIXING UP TO H85 RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
U70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA... THOUGH WILL BE COOLER NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE LIGHT GRADIENT WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP.
WITH CIRRUS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND WK GRADIENT PERSISTING...
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD CAUSE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SOME CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TUESDAY. ALSO...TIMING OF
A STRONGER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER LOOMS AHEAD LATE THIS WEEK.
FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...RATHER ASTOUNDING DIFFERENCES EXISTED IN
EARLIER RUNS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS REGARDING
THE STRENGTH... ORIENTATION AND TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SUBSEQUENT AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE GFS HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF IN THIS REGARD...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND HIGHS DOWN TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. LEFT
A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHEAST AREAS...
HOWEVER...DRY AIR AND LIMITED SATURATION AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
WELL AS LESS THEN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOULD GREATLY
LIMIT ANY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...A STRONGER SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL GROUND
FOG. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE
OF WIDESPREAD OR DENSE FOG BUT A BRIEF DROP INTO IFR CATEGORY IS
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AT KFWA...WHERE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE A LITTLE BETTER. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DAY OF CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD


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