Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 182337

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
737 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Issued at 731 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

A strong low pressure system over southeast Ontario will move
slowly northeast early this week resulting in cooler and less
humid air over our area. A couple of troughs rotating around the
Ontario low are expected to cause scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms in our area Monday and Tuesday. High pressure will
move across our area Wednesday providing fair weather. The high
will move east late this week as a cold front approaches from the
northwest, resulting in warmer more humid conditions with a
chance of thunderstorms.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Cold front was making steady progress across the area, currently
bisecting the area from SW to NE. Beginning to see a slow uptick in
shower activity ahead of it from central Indiana into NW Ohio. Pre-
frontal trough has worked well east of the area, taking any severe
threat with it into central and eastern Ohio. Expecting scattered
showers and maybe some thunder ahead of the front for the next
couple of hours with much quieter conditions arriving overnight.
Much more comfortable sleeping weather tonight with lows dropping
into the upper 50s to around 60. A disturbance will move through the
region, bringing a chance for showers and a few storms mainly during
the afternoon and evening hours as peak heating and cold pool aloft
combine to steepen low level lapse rates to 8 - 8.5 c/km.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Upper level trough across the Great lakes will be responsible for
cooler and less humid weather along with chances for a shower or
storm into Tuesday as a series of weak disturbances move through. No
rainout by any means, but enough to maybe wet down a few locations.
temperatures will begin to moderate back towards normal by Thursday
with humidity values increasing. A frontal boundary may stall across
the lower Great lakes as the next system moves in from the Plains to
bring additional chances for rainfall, possibly more widespread and
heavier as additional moisture becomes available. For the time being
keeping with high chc pops given variable location of the front and
timing of waves over the past several runs on all med range models.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 731 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Mid level dry slot on s-sw flank of deep low centered over sern
Ontario was over nrn IN this eve and expected to persist
overnight. Sct-bkn cu field should grdly dissipate with loss of
heating this eve leaving clr skies and light west winds overnight.
Upr trof and associated cold pool aloft over the upr Midwest this
eve will move e-se to the central Grtlks Monday aftn. Diurnal
heating has resulted in wk instability and sct shra/isolated ts in
vcnty of this trof this aftn and expect similar conditions with
low vfr ceilings across nrn IN tomorrow aftn as the trof moves in.




LONG TERM...Fisher

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