Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 181839

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
139 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Issued at 130 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

A weak cool front will drop southward across the area this
afternoon and evening and will stall out across the region
tonight and dissipate. Unseasonably mild conditions will continue
across the region through Friday. Dry conditions will also persist
through Monday as a ridge of high pressure settles across the
area. The next chance of rain will be Monday night into Tuesday
followed by a likelihood of rain and a few embedded thunderstorms
for next Friday with breezy conditions developing. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s.
High temperatures Sunday will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s,
except cooler near Lake Michigan due to a lake breeze.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Wk shrtwv movg quickly east across srn Ontario/Quebec today will
push a wk cdfnt into our cwa which will stall and wash out
tonight as ridging aloft again builds east from the Plains. H85
temps a little cooler today than yday, but with a much warmer
start to the day, decent mixing, and partly to mostly sunny
skies, temps should top out in the lower to middle 60s once again.
Although CAA wk behind front, flow off Lake Michigan should
result in a noticeable cool off nw this aftn. Ridge building in
tonight along with mostly clear skies should provide decent
radiational cooling n-nw allowing lows to drop into the lower to
middle 30s while south of stalling front lows only expected in the
upr 30s and lower 40s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 335 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Strong upr ridge will move across the cwa Sunday and Monday
providing a continuation of dry weather with unseasonably warm
temps. Deep trof moving into the swrn U.S. this weekend will lift
ne and weaken as it moves into the Grtlks early next week. Still,
appears moisture/forcing accompanying this system will be
sufficient to cause showers in our area late Monday night into
Tue. Dry conditions with contd unseasonably warm temps expected
Wed as flow aloft slowly backs from west to southwest ahead of
another strong trof movg across the wrn U.S.. This system expected
to cause a strong sfc low to develop over the central plains Thu
lifting slowly ne to WI/IA vcnty Friday bringing increasing
chances of showers and a few tstms along with increasing winds to
our area late week. Temps will remain much above normal ahead of
this system, but will return to normal or below as it moves across
the upr grtlks by Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 130 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Quiet aviation weather to continue this period with main forecast
question centering on patchy shallow fog potential. Weak sfc
trough/cool front will drop southward across northern Indiana
tonight before losing integrity. Slackening gradient associated
with this trough and slightly more favorable near sfc moisture
profiles toward KFWA could yield some patchy shallow fog late
tonight/early Sunday morning but confidence in
occurrence/magnitude is quite low, and will limit this mention to
tempo MVFR vsbys at KFWA. Otherwise, winds to become light and
variable overnight into Sunday morning as ridge axis becomes
centered across northern Indiana. A weak lake breeze may affect
KSBN Sunday afternoon, after this forecast valid period.


Issued at 350 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

A prolonged period of unseasonably mild conditions is in store
through the middle of next week. Below are record daily high
maximum temperatures and record daily high minimum temperatures
for the next several days for Fort Wayne and South Bend:

Fort Wayne

Date        Record High Max Temp        Record High Min Temp

2/18          61(1994 and 1961)                42(1981)
2/19             67(1930)                  43(1981 and 1913)
2/20             67(1930)                      47(1930)

South Bend

Date        Record High Max Temp        Record High Min Temp

2/18             63(1961)                      46(1981)
2/19             65(1930)                      48(1994)
2/20          65(1983 and 1930)                46(1930)





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