Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 190908

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
508 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017

Issued at 504 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017

Showers and a few storms are possible today as warm front begins
to move north and as an upper level disturbance moves east.
Otherwise, noticeably cooler air from out of Canada will continue
to spread over the area today. Highs today will run about 15 to
20 degrees colder than yesterday. Rain chances return for the
weekend as the front lifts back north, with the best chances
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 501 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017

A strong cold front had moved south across the area with much cooler
air spreading over the Upper Great region early this morning.
Temperatures early this morning ranged from 80 degrees south of
the front at St Louis to the upper 20s over northern Wisconsin.
The front had become stationary and will begin to move back north
as a warm front today. Elevated storms are possible later today
into tonight over far southern areas as the front begins to move
north and as an upstream impulse moves east. Temperatures will be
much cooler today than yesterday with a cool northeast to east
wind north of the front.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 501 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017

An amplifying upstream ridge will cause a broad upper level trof to
develop and deepen over central North America through the middle
of next week. In the interim, There will be a couple of rounds of
precipitation as short wave trofs or disturbances move through the
long wave pattern. The initial system will be able to tap some
gulf moisture and bring the potential for severe weather Saturday
and Saturday night. Surface based instability may top 2000 J/Kg by
late Saturday afternoon over portions of northern Indiana. The
instability combined with marginal low level shear will favor the
chance for severe storms. Rainfall amounts are expected to range
from around an inch to an inch and a half by Monday. Another round
of rain is expected during the middle of the upcoming week.
Chilly air behind the next system will cause high temperatures to
struggle to reach 60 Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017

Sfc cold front has shifted south of terminals with focus for
additional shower/thunderstorm activity expected to remain across
central Indiana. MVFR deck has slowly been creeping southward
across extreme northwest/north central Indiana affecting KSBN
area, but cigs should remain above fuel alternate criteria over
the next several hours. Low confidence at this time in terms of
MVFR cigs reaching KFWA overnight and will keep cigs at VFR
levels. Frontal boundary to stall south of the area today which
will result in establishment of east winds and likely persistence
of stratocu across the area. With low confidence in MVFR cigs,
will keep stratocu at VFR bases through this forecast valid
period. Better chance of showers and embedded storms will begin to
increase again just after this forecast valid period as upper
ridge shifts off to the east, and next larger scale upper trough
emerges from the Rockies.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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