Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 232341
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
741 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONDITIONS DRY
AND WARM OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RELATIVELY BENIGN SHORT TERM PERIOD WX WISE...AS SFC RIDGING
CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BERMUDA UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY...W/ RETURN FLOW INCREASING INTO
THE REGION. BROAD WRN CONUS TROF ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NE
THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTN AS SUBTLE
925/850MB MOISTURE GRADIENT/TROF LIFTS INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PALTRY ALONG THIS FEATURE...AND
ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE
700-500MB LAYER...MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND DRIER SUB CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM THE 18Z-00Z SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME....SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SUFFICE ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW/MID LEVEL THETAE SURGE. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING MOISTURE IN LOWEST 5K FT FOR SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH NAM/GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGESTING SOME
RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF
FORCING HAVE MAINTAINED JUST LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE...AND MENTIONED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TS
GIVEN HIGHLY ELEVATED AND WEAK NATURE TO INSTABILITY. BREAK IN
PRECIP CHANCES MAY EVOLVE LATER SUNDAY EVENING AS THIS WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORT WAVE TO EJECT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THAT COULD SPREAD RAIN
CHANCES BACK ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING.

HAVE ALSO CONTINUED LOW TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS
THIS SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THE BULK OF THIS FORCING MAY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING EASTWARD SHIFT
TO DEEPER MOISTURE. HAVE NOT ADDED MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPORAL
DETAIL TO POPS MONDAY...WITH STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE. EXTENT OF
THUNDER ON MONDAY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY CONTINUED MEAGER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED MONDAY
EVENING...BEFORE A STRONGER SYNOPTIC WAVE SHEARS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION FOR TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE A RENEWED LOW
LEVEL THETAE ADVECTIVE SURGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY. SOME
MODEST INCREASE IN MID/UPPER FLOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
WAVE...BUT CONTINUED MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL ARGUES
FOR LOW SEVERE THREAT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE FOR MONDAY-
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

PREDICTABILITY DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT FROM MID WEEK AND BEYOND AS
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...DIFFICULT TO
COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIODS. THUS...HAVE
MAINTAINED BROADBRUSH LOW POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR MET CONDS AGAIN TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PD. LITTLE MORE
THAN DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTION LOCATED WELL UPSTREAM...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH BASED CU FIELD DVLPG MIDDAY INTO SUN AFTN. SRLY
FLOW CONTS AND STRENGTHENS SUN AS PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS/DEEPENING
MID LVL HGHT FALLS EMERGE/LIFT NNEWD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


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