Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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089
FXUS63 KIWX 242024
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
324 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 318 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Low pressure will track rapidly into Michigan by this evening with
a strong cold front sweeping across the area. Showers and
thunderstorms, some possibly severe, will move through by mid
evening with much colder arriving in its wake for the weekend.
Snow showers will be possible mainly Saturday as strong northwest
flow and weak disturbance impact the lakes area. Temperatures will
trend back to near or above normal levels into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Convective event slowly unfolding in what is more of a typical
March/April airmass with much of the area well rooted in the warm
sector as low pressure tracks across far NW parts of the area this
afternoon. Record already broke at Ft Wayne with a high of 69. Most
areas seeing temps in the 60s with dewpoints in the mid 50s.
Lakeshore areas have not gotten to enjoy the warm air thus far. Pre
frontal trough has been attempting to light up and initially
struggled as strong EML kept things capped and updraft strength
limited. Shortwave trough now approaching and allowing for uptick in
convective initiation and subsequent severe threat, especially
into SE Michigan as well as portions of NW Ohio. Will need to
watch these areas but main area of concern now highlighted by
recent SWOMCD issued for convective threat along the cold front
with radar showing very disorganized development from NW Indiana
into portions of Illinois. To summarize, strong to severe storms
still possible into the evening hours with high res models
suggesting potential at least scattered reports of wind damage in
any LEWP/QLSC signatures and a risk for large hail/isolated
tornadoes in discrete cells or in notches on above mentioned
convective lines. Severe threat should end rapidly by 3Z with
colder air rapidly falling in behind the front.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Few changes to long term with focus on severe weather threat in near
term.

Cold air will be firmly entrenched at the start of the period with
lake enhanced snow showers across at least the northwestern quarter
to third of the area. Local accumulations of around an inch will be
possible with some slick spots not out of the realm of possibility.
It will be blustery and cold with highs only in the lower to middle
30s and a stiff nw wind of 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts. Both the
winds and snow showers will rapidly diminish Sat night as the
trough pulls away and start of at least limited ridging commences.
Highs Sunday will head back to normal levels in the low to mid
40s.

Longwave trough will dig once again to the west and allow for
increasing heights and a series of systems to bring increased rain
chances, especially by mid week as the main trough ejects and heads
for the Great Lakes. Warmer temperatures will occur ahead of it with
highs in the 40s and 50s falling back to below normal levels in its
wake with highs in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

Low pres over ne IL will shift into sw MI by late aftn as trailing
cold front surges east this evening. Grungy warm sector wwd of
prefrontal trough bisecting cwa sw-ne slowing sfc based
destabilization underneath as yet formidable mid level capping
inversion. However approach of upper trough out of IA will lead to
erosion of this feature as better height falls spread east and
still expect convection to initiate over nw IN twd 20Z.

Otherwise current prefrontal convection continues to struggle yet
likely to serve as a focus point for sfc based storms as cold front
approaches this evening...east of KSBN terminal but west of KFWA.
Quick upscale growth expected with brief near severe potential twd
00Z at KFWA. Strong low level cold advection follows with widespread
mvfr conditions thereafter tonight along with likely snow showers
invof KSBN late.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 5 AM EST Sunday for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fisher
SHORT TERM...Fisher
LONG TERM...Fisher
AVIATION...T


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