Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 220819
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
419 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG A FRONT WILL END THIS MORNING AS
WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70...EXCEPT COOLER
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WILL LOWS
DIPPING WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 30S OVER
LOCALLY COLDER SPOTS. HIGH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL REACH NEAR
80 BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LTL OF NOTE THIS PD OTHER THAN EWD PROGRESSION OF MASSIVE SFC RIDGE
TWD THE WRN ATL THIS WEEKEND. HWVR THIS MARKS A TURN IN TEMPS W/SLOW
NEWD EXPANSION OF PLAINS LL THERMAL RIDGE AND WARMING TEMPS. WILL
NOTCH TEMPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS AFTN IN REF TO MIXED LYR PROGS AND
ABUNDANT INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT FRI MAY
22 2015

AN UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. ATTEMPTED TO BLEND A GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. CHALLENGES WITH THIS
PATTERN INCLUDE EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER AND MID LEVEL STABILITY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT TIMES WILL
BE AROUND 5C/KM...WHICH MAY ACT LIKE A MID LEVEL CAP. FOR THIS
PACKAGE...KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SUBSEQUENT SHIFT/S WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABLE TO BE MORE
PRECISE WITH THE TIMING OF STORMS AS INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. KEPT HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH CLOSE TO 80 EACH DAY OVER MOST
AREAS GIVEN THE NORTH EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDS WILL CONT THIS PD. BAND OF AC ASSOCD/W WK SECONDARY SW
TROUGH ROTATING SEWD THROUGH BASE OF ERN ONTARIO UPR TROF AXIS
AIDING A BAND OF WKNG SHRA ACRS SRN LK MI ATTM. DOUBT THIS WILL HOLD
INTACT TO SENSIBLY AFFECT THE KSBN TERMINAL. OTRWS PASSAGE OF
ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH WILL VEER WINDS NRLY THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


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