Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 100457
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1157 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

Tonight - Friday:

A weak cold front is expected to move into/through the area tonight
into the day on Thursday. Models vary however on the amount of
moisture available to produce precipitation. The GFS is the most
robust in its low to mid level moisture and as a result generates
the most precipitation. While the overall chances don`t look
especially high, there is probably at least a slight chance for a
few showers in northern to northeastern Missouri late tonight
through tomorrow morning as that front moves through the area. So
have added some low PoPs to the forecast for this area as a result.
The added cloud cover and possible precipitation should also keep
temperatures in northeastern Missouri a bit cooler than surrounding
areas, so also adjusted temperatures down to account for this.

That front will settle to our south and become stationary late
Thursday night into Friday. This will lead to another round of
possible precipitation as another upper-level shortwave trough
approaches from the west. The best precipitation chances will be
more closely tied to the stalled frontal boundary so have kept the
chance PoPs going for our southern zones through the day Friday.

Saturday - Sunday:

The front will lift back northward Saturday as a warm front and we
should see temperatures climb back into the mid to upper 70s.
Dewpoints should also be able to climb into the mid to upper 50s or
even near 60 degrees so there will be better moisture in place for a
stronger front to move through later in the period. That front will
move into the area during the overnight hours so precipitation
chances will rapidly increase Saturday night as a result. Models are
in very good agreement splitting the forecast area with the front
with what looks to be widespread shower and thunderstorms across the
area during the day. This poses a challenging temperature forecast
for Sunday with areas in our south approaching 70 degrees and areas
in our north likely to remain in the lower 50s. So somewhere in
between there will be large amount possible error in the forecast
depending on where the front actually is. The threat of severe
weather still looks marginal at this time as the coupling of good
instability, good shear and some kind of focal point to initiate
storms don`t coincide.

Monday - Wednesday:

Conditions on Monday look to be rather chilly with leftover
precipitation/cloud cover and strong north winds advecting cold air
into the region. Highs on Monday will likely be at least 30 degrees
colder than on Saturday. Beyond Monday, the models begin to diverge
with the ECMWF and the GFS nearly opposite in their depiction of the
surface. The GFS shows a warming trend with southerly winds while
the ECMWF moves another high pressure into the Plains with cold
advection. So beyond Monday, no changes were made to the forecast
initialization as confidence is low based on the varying model
solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

VFR conditions are expected to dominate for the next 24 hours.
Notable issue for this TAF period will be low level wind shear early
this morning, which should shift southeast as the front presses south
later Thursday morning. Surface winds will switch around to the
northeast behind the front by Thursday afternoon. The northeast wind
will start off rather light, but will ramp up in speed during the
afternoon hours.

&&


.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Cutter







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