Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 261136
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
636 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

Severe convective system is clearing the area this morning with a
large area of stratiform rain trailing behind it, which could lead
to MCV development over central MO later this morning. Cold front
still is lagging behind this system across northern MO, and with a
low-level jet nosing into the area it`s conceivable that a few more
storms could pop up this morning until the front comes through.
However, airmass behind this large convective system has likely
stabilized significantly, and any MCV development over central MO
would likely bring subsidence on its western flank, so additional
widespread storms appear unlikely. Still, given all the rain that
fell Thursday and overnight we will go ahead and keep the flash flood
watch going for the morning hours until the front swings through.

Northwesterly upper flow and high pressure building in behind today`s
front will keep things dry tonight through Saturday night with highs
in the upper 70s to near 80. Another cold front will track into the
region on Sunday and could be accompanied by some strong storms given
modest shear in place. Progressive nature of the front should prevent
widespread flooding concerns although locally heavy rainfall is
certainly a possibility.

Another high pressure system behind Sunday`s front will keep the
beginning of the work week dry although temperatures will still stay
seasonably warm with highs in the mid 80s. Continued northwest flow
could bring additional storms into area by Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

This morning`s thunderstorm activity is beginning to shift south of
the KC-area terminals this morning. While this will be the end of the
widespread thunderstorms, there could be some redevelopment of
isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm during the
afternoon. Some MVFR ceilings over KS and NE could also migrate this
way during the morning hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR KSZ057-060-
     105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR MOZ037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






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