Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 242040
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
340 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

Forecast challenges include excessive heat, timing for convection,
and heavy rain threat over northern Missouri. Despite convective
debris this morning temperatures recovered quickly over most of the
area. The exception was over far north central and northeast Missouri
where thunderstorm activity dove south from Iowa. Convection over
eastern part of the forecast area appears to be starting to weaken
however still moving into very warm unstable air so would not be
surprised to see it linger into the evening hours.

For the overnight, upper wave forecast to top the upper ridge
centered over the central Plains. With weak surface boundary pushing
into northern Missouri later tonight and precipitable water values
pushing 2 inches, heavy rain certainly a possibility generally north
of highway 36.

With surface boundary in the vicinity and on-going morning convection
temperatures in northern Missouri should be below heat advisory
criteria. However further south...generally south of the Missouri
River...less cloud cover along with the position of the upper ridge
should allow heat index values to once again climb in excess of 105
degrees. Although readings should be a couple of degrees cooler
tomorrow than today most locations south of the Missouri river should
reach advisory criteria. As a result a heat advisory will be in
effect for this area. Depending on extent of overnight convection not
out of the question that KC metro and southwestern part of forecast
area could approach warning criteria.

Once again on Saturday night and Sunday good chances for convection
especially over northern Missouri. Sunday looks to be warm again,
however still a lot of questions regarding timing and position of
thunderstorm activity and as a result will hold off on heat advisory
at this time.

Generally warm conditions continue into the first part of next week
until a front approaches the region on Wednesday bringing another
chance for thunderstorm activity. This should bring drier and bit
cooler air into the region for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

Storms over northeast KS should begin to weaken shortly, and
confidence is not terribly high that they can last long enough to
impact the KC area airports. After this activity dissipates, there
could be a very isolated storm again this afternoon with betterchances
later tonight particularly just to the north of KC.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Saturday for
     KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ038>040-044>046-054.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-
     012-020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Saturday for
     MOZ028-029-037-043-053.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>005-013>015-
     022>024-030>032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mitchell
DISCUSSION...Mitchell
AVIATION...Hawblitzel



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