Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 110517

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1217 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

Issued at 244 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

Dry, generally quiet weather is expected to continue through pretty
much the entire forecast. The only concern is for fire weather on
Sunday but especially Monday afternoon in the wake of a cold front.

Sunday will be a very anomalously warm day as highs climb to 15 to
20 degrees above normal. The record for Kansas City is 89. Right
now, while we`ll be close to that with a forecast high of 85, the
thermal axis continues to be draped from far northwestern Missouri
through south central Kansas. So it`s likely that the northwest
corner of Missouri will the upper 80s, perhaps approaching 90
degree, temperatures. While it will be very warm for this time of
year, there does seem to be enough moisture advection to keep
humidity values from tanking. So minimum afternoon humidity values
in the 30 to 34 percent range look likely. Winds will also be in the
10 to 15 mph range with some higher gusts. So while the fire danger
looks elevated, it should not reach critical levels on Sunday.

A cold front will move through during the overnight hours. This will
knock about 15 degrees off of the temperatures but the real
difference will be in the dewpoints. Strong dry advection behind the
front combined with gusty northwesterly winds may be enough to lead
to critical fire weather conditions. It`s still early in the fall
but grasses aren`t very cured, but it has been dry over the last
month or so which could be problematic given the air mass advecting
into the area.

For the extended portion of the forecast, temperatures will remain
mild with slightly above normal temperatures, in the lower 70s,
through the middle of the week. By the end of the week, another
front should move through the area and usher in a cooler air mass.
Still, it only decreases temperatures to near to just below average.
The GFS develops some precipitation Saturday and Saturday night on
the nose of a low level jet. While this is possible, the
probabilities at this point are not worth mentioning, so have kept
the forecast dry until there is better consensus amongst the models
at this time frame and a more robust signal.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. At issue for this
TAF cycle will be winds as the southwest winds today are expected to
get a bit gusty this afternoon. Tonight a cold front will slide
through the region turning the winds to the northwest, though current
timing has that just beyond the end of this TAF cycle.


Issued at 244 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

Elevated fire danger is expected Sunday afternoon as temperatures
warm into the mid to upper 80s with gusty southerly winds. However,
there may be enough moisture advection to keep humidity values from
reaching critical values, despite deep mixing. A greater risk for
potentially critical fire weather conditions will exist Monday
afternoon. A strong cold front will move through the region with a
significantly drier air mass advecting into the region. Minimum
afternoon humidity values may fall to around 25% with winds perhaps
gusting to around 25 mph.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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