Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 261130
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
530 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 259 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2016

In the very near term, patchy fog will continue to spread under
a surface ridge currently across portions of central and southern
Missouri, and could lead to a few slick elevated surfaces where
temperatures fall below freezing this morning. Surface winds will
increase by mid-morning, allowing any fog to mix out and helping
temperatures rise to well above normal values in the 50s to near
60 degrees. Raised highs a few degrees for this afternoon with quite
a bit of warm air aloft and a potential to really bust on highs if
mixing is even a little bit deeper than progged.

The next system will move into the region on Sunday as a shortwave
trough kicks deepening surface low pressure from the central High
Plains through the Dakotas. Saturation will increase strongly from
near the surface through about 700 mb on Sunday morning ahead of
the system, allowing very light rain showers to develop and spread
quickly to the east after sunrise. Showers will increase in coverage
and intensity as the system ejects out and moisture deepens late
Sunday morning through the afternoon, then this round of showers may
push out of the CWA before the cold front arrives, providing a bit of
a break during the evening. Left a mention of thunder on Sunday;
however, instability is very unimpressive and decreases from west to
east, so do not expect much more than one or two rumbles of thunder
in perhaps the western third of the CWA. Strong southerly winds are
also expected on Sunday as the surface low deepens, but with the low
track remaining west and then north of the region, likely will not
reach advisory criteria.

The front will slow its southeastward progress on Sunday night and
Monday as the surface low pulls northward, leading to prolonged rain
chances for the eastern ~half of the CWA through Monday, but should
eventually push out to the east with the help of another lobe of
shortwave energy on Monday evening. Colder air will be slow to arrive
behind the surface front, but will filter down as the main longwave
trough slides through the central CONUS by midweek, bringing highs
down to the 40s for Wednesday through the end of the forecast period.
Any additional precipitation associated with the slow-moving system
should stay both north of the area (near the surface low) and well to
the southeast (near the slow-moving cold front), leaving our area
seasonably chilly but dry through the latter half of the work week
and into the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2016

Clear skies and south southwest winds will persist through nearly all
of the TAF period, so have opted for one-line TAFs for all but IXD. A
brief period of patchy fog will continue at IXD for the next hour or
two until winds begin to increase, but do not expect visibilities to
drop below 5 SM. Wind gusts could reach the 15 to 20 kt range this
afternoon, and will remain breezy overnight into Sunday morning. The
atmosphere will saturate quickly on Sunday morning and could result
in the development of a stratus deck right around the end of the TAF
period, but will address that in later TAF issuances.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin



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