Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 092329
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
629 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

Tonight - Friday:

A weak cold front is expected to move into/through the area tonight
into the day on Thursday. Models vary however on the amount of
moisture available to produce precipitation. The GFS is the most
robust in its low to mid level moisture and as a result generates
the most precipitation. While the overall chances don`t look
especially high, there is probably at least a slight chance for a
few showers in northern to northeastern Missouri late tonight
through tomorrow morning as that front moves through the area. So
have added some low PoPs to the forecast for this area as a result.
The added cloud cover and possible precipitation should also keep
temperatures in northeastern Missouri a bit cooler than surrounding
areas, so also adjusted temperatures down to account for this.

That front will settle to our south and become stationary late
Thursday night into Friday. This will lead to another round of
possible precipitation as another upper-level shortwave trough
approaches from the west. The best precipitation chances will be
more closely tied to the stalled frontal boundary so have kept the
chance PoPs going for our southern zones through the day Friday.

Saturday - Sunday:

The front will lift back northward Saturday as a warm front and we
should see temperatures climb back into the mid to upper 70s.
Dewpoints should also be able to climb into the mid to upper 50s or
even near 60 degrees so there will be better moisture in place for a
stronger front to move through later in the period. That front will
move into the area during the overnight hours so precipitation
chances will rapidly increase Saturday night as a result. Models are
in very good agreement splitting the forecast area with the front
with what looks to be widespread shower and thunderstorms across the
area during the day. This poses a challenging temperature forecast
for Sunday with areas in our south approaching 70 degrees and areas
in our north likely to remain in the lower 50s. So somewhere in
between there will be large amount possible error in the forecast
depending on where the front actually is. The threat of severe
weather still looks marginal at this time as the coupling of good
instability, good shear and some kind of focal point to initiate
storms don`t coincide.

Monday - Wednesday:

Conditions on Monday look to be rather chilly with leftover
precipitation/cloud cover and strong north winds advecting cold air
into the region. Highs on Monday will likely be at least 30 degrees
colder than on Saturday. Beyond Monday, the models begin to diverge
with the ECMWF and the GFS nearly opposite in their depiction of the
surface. The GFS shows a warming trend with southerly winds while
the ECMWF moves another high pressure into the Plains with cold
advection. So beyond Monday, no changes were made to the forecast
initialization as confidence is low based on the varying model
solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours even as a cold
front moves through the region Thursday morning. The frontal passage
is expected to be dry, so minimal cloud cover and no precipitation
are expected at this time. However, winds around the front will change a
lot in the next day. Surface pressure gradient will help keep winds up
tonight, though of primary concern might be the development of a low
level jet ahead of the frontal boundary and the resulting wind shear.
Otherwise, look for the wind to veer to the northwest and then
northeast Thursday morning as the frontal settles through the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

Critical fire danger will continue through the afternoon and early
this evening. Very low humidity values have spread over the entire
region with strong winds over all but our far southeastern fire
zones. With grasses still mostly cured, especially across northern
and northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas, the low humidity
and strong winds will keep the fire danger critical until
temperatures cool down and the boundary layer slightly decouples,
decreasing winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>032-037>039-043-044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...CDB






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