Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 200819
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
319 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU APR 20 2017

The cold front is sloooowly working it`s way through the forecast
area this morning. The front should finally be through the area by
late this morning. Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms
are likely as the front is moving through. With limited instability
and shear, the threat of anything severe is slim to none. Cooler
temperatures can be expected today with northerly winds as a high
pressure area passes through. This will help push the front south
into AR/OK/TX. By Friday afternoon, Another strong upper level
system move into the Plains. Models have remained fairly
consistent in the last 24 hours or so, tracking the wave across
Missouri and the surface low along the MO/AR state line. An
inverted surface trough will set up over western MO and eastern KS
and be the focus for moderate rainfall as the entire system is
pushing through. It still looks the best chances for moderate to
perhaps heavy rain in the area will be south of I-70. Considered a
flood watch for the area for Friday evening through Saturday
however, our event total QPF doesn`t meet headwater guidance for
the area. That`s not to say there won`t be any flooding but given
the expected amounts at this time it looks more isolated in
nature. The better threat for flooding will to our south.

Rain should move out of the area by Saturday afternoon with cooler
temperatures settling over the area during the overnight. Sunday
morning lows have trended into the upper 30s for some areas. It`s
possible some areas could dip into the middle 30s along the surface
ridge axis across northwestern MO and eastern KS. If temperatures
continue to trend this way, there may be areas of frost Sunday
morning.

Temperatures will climb back above normal for Monday. Flow will
become southerly ahead of a shortwave moving across the northern
Plains. A strong lee side trough will develop as a result and will
tighten the pressure gradient across eastern KS and western MO.
Given this, it looks rather windy on Monday. We should remain dry
until Wednesday though as another shortwave tracks across the area.
However, there is little agreement with the models this far out. So
feel just keeping PoPs in the chance category is the best route to
go.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT WED APR 19 2017

A broken line of showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue
to develop along and just behind a southeastward-moving cold
front as it passes through the region. Visibilities and ceilings
may be temporarily reduced at all terminals as the front moves
through, but storms are not guaranteed at any one site. Winds will
veer to the northwest behind the front, and will remain out of the
northwest through the rest of the TAF period. MVFR stratus behind
the front will gradually scatter out during the morning, bringing
all sites back to VFR.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Laflin


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