Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 121737

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1137 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

Issued at 258 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2017

A nearly dry and mild forecast is expected through the next 7 days
with the main concern being for a slightly elevated fire weather
danger today. Today will be much cooler then yesterday with CAA
filtering into the area behind a cold front that moved through later
in the day. Temperatures will still remain above normal with highs
in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Despite the cooler temperatures, fire
weather will be a concern. Luckily, it appears the strongest winds
will be in the morning before weakening in the afternoon when
dewpoints start to drop off as high pressure begins to move into the
area. However, dry fuels, modest northwest winds and relative
humidity values in the upper 20 to mid 30 percent range will make
fire weather a concern. High pressure will reside over the area
tonight through Monday keeping conditions dry and mild will highs in
the upper 40s to lower 50s. The slight chance for precipitation this
forecast period will come Monday night as mid-level convergence will
exist over the area in between a upper shortwave through to the
north and a closed upper low to our southwest. However, dry air in
place will need to be overcome for and light rain to reach the
surface. Tuesday, the area remains wedged between the upper level
troughing over the Great Lakes and the upper trough to the
southwest. Conditions should remain main mild with highs in the low
to mid 50s. Wednesday looks like it will be the "coldest" day this
forecast period and the upper level trough over the Great Lakes digs
southeastward and leaves the area under strong northwesterly flow
aloft. Highs will still be slightly above normal in the 40s.

Beyond Midweek, we will experience a warming trend through the
second half of the work week into the weekend. Thursday, northwest
flow aloft weakens over the area as upper level ridging builds over
the Plains. Expect highs in the 50s. The upper level ridge will
slowly slide east over the region on Friday and Saturday. Expect
highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s on Friday with temperatures even a
few degrees warmer on Saturday. Sunday, expect WAA to increase out
ahead of an system moving through the southern Rockies driving
temperatures into the mid 60s to near 70.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2017

Gusty NW winds will continue through the afternoon, and gradually
diminish this evening as the surface ridge moves in. Expect VFR
conditions across the area for the duration of the forecast


.Fire Weather...
Issued at 235 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2017

Gusty northwest winds will push through the area Sunday, likely
starting up Saturday evening, and increasing in speed through the
overnight hours. By early Sunday morning N/NW winds will be around
15 to 20 mph, with gusts around 20 to 30 mph. Current RH forecast is
expected to be in the 25 to 35 percent range, mainly across western
Missouri and eastern Kansas. The further east you go the higher the
RH is expected to get. Should the morning stratus linger through the
afternoon it would likely prevent some mixing, which could keep the
winds on the lower end of the aforementioned window. However should
the clouds wear off earlier in the day, then more mixing could occur
and NW winds could be in the 20 to 30 mph range, with RH values
dropping to near 30 percent. A Red Flag Warning for Sunday is not
anticipated at this time.




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