Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 232339
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
539 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2014
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
Band of snow from central KS into central IA is associated with the
axis of a deep upper trough stretching across much of the central
U.S. Weak isentropic ascent on the back side of the trough axis is
the primary source of lift, and this ascent is forecast to slightly
weaken overnight and shift into lower levels of the atmosphere. Expect
the band of precipitation to weaken somewhat as it pushes into
eastern KS and western MO near or shortly after midnight and into
central MO just after day break, but should still hold together
enough for at least a few hundredths of an inch of precipitation.
Could even see a bit of drizzle/freezing drizzle mixed in as better
ascent shifts below the level of max ice nucleation. Snowfall amounts
will be very light - an inch or less - with the higher amounts across
far northwest Missouri. Temperatures hovering near or slightly above
freezing further south could make it difficult for snow to accumulate
at all...and parts of central MO may even see more rain than snow.
All in all not a high impact situation, but with the highest snow
chances moving into the KC area just before Wednesday morning`s
commute, even a light dusting of slushy snow could cause a few
traffic problems particularly on bridges and overpasses.
Ridging will be quick to move overhead on Christmas day bringing the
best chances for full sun we`ve seen in days and temperatures that
could approach 50 degrees in spots. Friday will see another quick
front move through the area which could be accompanied by some light
rain showers, possibly a few flakes on the back end. Will need to
watch the possibility for low pressure riding up the front Friday
night and Saturday which could send light accumulating snow into the
area, as the latest ECMWF is suggesting. This scenario is absent from
the last several GFS runs, and these drier solutions are preferred at
this time due to better consistency lately. Cooler and drier
conditions expected by early next week.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
Band of rain/snow mix stretching from western IA through south
central KS will gradually shift southward overnight. Cold air lacking
as temperatures in the mid/upper 30s will initially result in rain at
first with a gradual change over to a rain/snow mix after midnight.
Any complete change to snow will likely be tied to those areas where
the precipitation intensity is higher. Most of the snow will likely
melt with some minor accumulations on grassy areas. Best chance is across
northwest MO into northeast KS.
MVFR cigs will give way to IFR by mid/late evening with the
conversion spreading south this evening. Expect cigs to gradually
improve by mid morning once the precipitation ends. Clearing line
will be moving into eastern KS by the end of the forecast period.