Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 250847
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
347 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

The main concern in for today will continue to be the heat. However,
in the very short term, early this morning, a broken line of
convection has blossomed across northwestern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas. This is in response to isentropic ascent along
the 310K surface. This will look to begin weakening around daybreak
but may provide extra clouds through the morning hours. This may
keep temperatures from skyrocketing this morning but mostly sunny
skies will prevail today. 850mb temperatures will be very similar
to yesterday and with the same airmass in place, have keep
temperatures close to yesterday with highs in the 90s. Factoring in
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s and heat index values will
again be in the 100-105 range and as such a heat advisory remains in
effect until 8PM tonight.

An upper level low this morning is moving northeast from North
Dakota into the Canadian Plains. This upper low is forcing a weak
cold front into the region. The main question is how far south this
front will sag today. Models are mainly in agreement that the front
will remain north of the forecast area perhaps clipping extreme
northwest Missouri. Tonight moisture will pool along this boundary
as a 30-40KT southwesterly LLJ will spark thunderstorms to develop
along and north of the front across northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri. As such have slight chance to chance POPs
north of an MCI to Macon line tonight.

The aforementioned cold front will then get hung up across the
northern CWA Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level ridge axis,
which has brought the recent spell of hot weather, remains stout
across the southern Missouri. As such, temperatures will remain hot
Tuesday and Wednesday with the exception perhaps being across the
northern CWA in the area of the front. Highs will range in the upper
80s to upper 90s on Tuesday and from the mid 80s to the mid 90s
Wednesday. Chance to slight chance POPs are possible both days in
the vicinity of the front however with extremely weak forcing and
weak upper flow chances seem low during the day but may be increased
during the night time hours due to a weak LLJ.

The main feature of interest in the extended period will be an upper
level trough which is moving through the Pacific Northwest this
morning. This trough is progged to dig southward into the Great
Basin by Wednesday morning and develop an upper low. Previous model
runs of the GFS has depicted a more progressive open wave forcing a
front into the CWA Tuesday night/Wednesday. However, recent runs has
shown the GFS come more in line with the EC/GEM/NAM in developing an
upper low across the Great Basin and slowing down the system. The
GFS does however still show a faster progression of the system from
the Great Basin into the Plains. It is this upper system that will
finally force a slow moving cold front through the region. This slow
moving cold front could produce several periods of precipitation
across the area from Thursday through Sunday. As such chance POPs
are in the forecast from Thursday through Saturday night with only
slight chances on Sunday. Temperatures will be in the mid 80s to
lower 90s Thursday and Friday. As the cold front moves through on
Saturday highs will become more seasonable for Saturday and Sunday
with highs in the low to mid 80s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

VFR expected through the period. Southerly winds will continue with
speeds AOB 10kts. Mid-level clouds upstream may move into the area
with time. Most convection to the west should remain separated from
terminal space. Exception may be STJ where low confidence of
convection is possible late tonight or tomorrow morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Blair





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