Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 180854
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
354 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 353 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

Looks like a nice run of weather through the end of the work week
and the weekend, though there might be a little rain. Big picture
across the Nation shows a rather messy pattern in place with large
trough circulating over the Great Basin. Southwest flow from this
circulation brought rain locally Monday into Tuesday, but now the
focus is farther south along the Gulf Coast, allowing some sunshine
and warmer temperatures to prevail today and again Thursday.

For Thursday night into Friday, models had been advertising the
Great Basin circulation moving out across the Plains, resulting in
storms spreading north across the Lower Missouri River Valley.
However, latest couple of runs have been shifting the solutions for
rain farther south as the expected track for the ejecting circulation
has shifted south. Confidence in this shifting solution is rather
good as there is no blocking weather features across the Gulf that
would force the shortwave north. That said, still think we could get
some showers Thursday night with the warm air advection ahead of the
shortwave, but have trimmed POPs back into the chance category
Thursday night and into the slight chance category for the day
Friday.

The weekend! It is looking nice. Temperatures through the work week
will be climbing back towards seasonally normal values mid 70s, but
likely wont get there before Saturday. Otherwise, expect conditions
to be dry through the weekend.

Next work week...could be a bit unsettled. Ultimately, the Great
Basin circulation that will eject through the Southern Plains later
this week will do so owing to another trough dropping out of the
Gulf of Alaska; and by the beginning of next work week that
secondary trough is expected to start ejecting shortwaves into the
Plains, bringing more storms. However, unlike the rain we had Sunday
night through Tuesday, or expected again Thursday night, any activity
next work week -possibly starting as early as Sunday night- will be
in a warmer unstable environment, which this weeks storms have not
been. This speaks to the potential for severe storms and flooding
rain with next weeks activity, but only in the most general sense.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

Calm winds and clear skies will persist through the overnight hours.
MVFR fog is possible toward sunrise with cooling temperatures.
Building cloud cover may mitigate this potential, though still
expecting to see development, particularly in areas not impacted by
cloud cover. Calm winds will then continue through Wednesday as
scattered to broken stratus builds through the remainder of the
period.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Welsh



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