Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 161725
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1225 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014
Issued at 344 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014
Compact shortwave is clearly evident over the north central Missouri
and south central Iowa border early this morning, where a low level
jet feeding into this feature has allowed for widespread rainfall
over northern Missouri, some of which has been heavy. This convection
seems to have fed into the strength of the upper wave giving it
resemblance to an MCV, and numerous to widespread thunderstorms will
continue for much of the morning to the south and east of this
feature as it drifts into northeast Missouri. The heaviest rain
threat this morning has shifted eastward into areas near and east of
Kirksville and Macon where the low-level jet has shifted its focus.
While scattered convection will continue for much of the morning
further west, this should be scattered and light enough to prevent
any more flash flooding concerns so the flash flood watch will be
dropped for these areas.
A weak front on the back side of the upper wave/MCV over northern MO will
drop south through eastern KS and western/central MO through the late
morning and early afternoon. If clouds can break up enough to allow
temperatures to rise into the lower or middle 80s, most likely to
occur near and south of the Missouri River, then the atmosphere
should become unstable enough for a few showers and thunderstorms
developing along the front later today. While mid-level wind speeds will
be slightly enhanced to the southwest of the MCV, lapse rates and
available dry air aloft have been reduced considerably in the wake of
this morning`s convection. Thus the threat for any strong or severe
storms looks rather low this afternoon, but still can`t rule out a
few gusty winds and brief downpours in the strongest storms.
Subsidence behind the MCV and trailing cold front will end
precipitation chances from northwest to southeast this evening and
overnight. This should leave most areas dry on Sunday, but a stray
shower or weak storm can`t be totally ruled out over central MO on
the back side of the slow-moving upper wave.
By Monday a much deeper upper wave will track into the Upper Midwest
and will send a cold front as far south as Nebraska and Iowa Monday
night. A thunderstorm complex may develop along this front Monday
afternoon, potentially dropping southeast into our area Monday night.
However, with the better forcing staying well to the north, the track
of any such complex would be highly dependent on how organized this
convection can become and how unstable the airmass gets over KS/MO.
Right now the chances that storms can make it this far south Monday
night are about 40 to 50 percent. All indications are that any storms
that do make it this far south should weaken considerably, leaving a
minimal threat for any strong storms or widespread heavy rain.
By Tuesday upper level heights will begin to rise across the Plains
and will bring a return to hot summer temperatures for the remainder
of the week. This will also shift the storm track further north with
mostly dry conditions for the end of the forecast period. A weak
wave may bring a few thunderstorms to the area on Wednesday, but the
better chances look to be further north over Iowa.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014
MVFR CIGS to continue through the afternoon per visible satellite
trends and removed previous VCTS for this afternoon given a stable
airmass behind a cold front now south of the terminals. Skies will
slowly clear overnight with patchy fog developing given the moist
airmass and light to calm winds. Tomorrow, once we mix out, VFR CIGS
and VIS with developing southeasterly surface flow.