Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 270820
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
320 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015
Issued at 320 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
With northwest flow prevailing over the region through the weekend,
there will be several shortwave troughs moving through the flow that
will bring us several rounds of weather. On the heels of the wave
currently moving through, another and potentially stronger wave will
slide southeast through the region tonight. Given more widespread
but still light accumulating precip this morning, and that tonight`s
wave looks stronger, have increased PoPs substantially across much
of the forecast area. Temperatures should also be colder and this
may bring some light accumulations, less than half an inch, to parts
of northern/northeastern Missouri into central Missouri.
Another upper level shortwave trough will move through the region
late Saturday night and into the day Sunday. By this time,
temperatures will be much warmer so the potential for snow is nil,
but there should be at least scattered showers across the area
through the morning and daytime hours on Sunday.
Shortwave ridging should spread over the region Monday into Tuesday,
allowing for a nice warm up into the 70s. But another strong
northern stream storm system will track across the northern Plains
and Upper Midwest, trailing a cold front into the area on Wednesday.
Based on the latest model trends, this front should arrive later in
the day, after peak heating, allowing for temperatures to climb into
the mid to perhaps upper 70s ahead of the front. Very warm
temperatures aloft coupled with good southwesterly winds and modest
mixing ahead of the front will all aid in the warm pre-frontal
conditions. While there will be some instability across the area
ahead of the front, the best dynamics will occur behind the front
and as a result, the chances for severe storms looks rather low at
this point. But models do depict a decent amount of QPF so hopefully
we can get some widespread moderate rainfall to eat into the
precipitation deficits we`ve racked up so far this year.
Above normal temperatures should persist through the end of the
week. Models vary on the next chance for precipitation but the
active pattern may continue Thursday night into Friday. The ECMWF
shows a modest low pressure system tracking through the region with
ample QPF across the area. The GFS is slower and more southerly with
this low bring its greatest precip amounts to southern Missouri.
Overall, didn`t change much from the forecast initialization and
have maintained the chance PoPs for this period of time.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
Precipitation will continue to exit the area as surface high pressure
builds from the northwest. Low-level stratus, however, will linger
until early Friday morning. MVFR cigs will scatter out through the
morning hours prior to the development of mid-level clouds in the
afternoon. Veering winds will weaken slightly through the period.