Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 141850
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1250 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 414 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2017

Late Friday night a band of light rain developed and shifted
northeast across eastern Kansas and northern Missouri. This band of
freezing rain looked to be the result of a subtle shortwave trough
that ejected from the cutoff low spinning over the Baja coastline;
helping focus the nocturnal jet and resulting warm moist air
advection across the Southern Plains into southern Missouri. This
band of light rain only brought a few hundredths to a tenth of an
inch of rain, but given that it was moving northeast out of the
current active Ice Storm Warning, we opted to go ahead and issue an
Ice Storm Warning for the northern third of the forecast area which
was not already covered; areas north of a line roughly from St
Joseph to Kirksville.

Stepping back and looking at the larger picture for the rest of the
weekend...icing will continue to be a major issue. Models continue
to advertise that another round of rain is likely as moisture from
the western Gulf and eastern Pacific continues to advect over the
surface dome of cold air in place across eastern Kansas and northern
Missouri. An inverted surface trough is noted along the Oklahoma-
Arkansas border, which will help feed the western Gulf moisture into
southern Missouri through the day. However, with the loss of the
nocturnal jet across Oklahoma and Texas during the day, the focus for
precipitation will remain to the south of our forecast area through
the daylight hours. Have trimmed back the mention of Freezing Rain
for the daylight hours as a result, but still think Freezing Drizzle
may be an issue as low stratus clouds are advecting northeast from
north central Oklahoma; and any light glaze of ice could cause
issues.

Tonight through Sunday...continues to be the periods we expect most
of the icing to occur. Latest model solutions are slowing down the
onset of the moderate Freezing Rain later tonight, likely due to
solutions slowing the progress of the Baja cutoff low as it moves
into the southern Plains. The later start time for rain tonight
simply reinforces the fact that any rain will be Freezing Rain.
However, the later start time and slower progress of the main upper
level feature will slow down the warming expected across the region
during the day Sunday. In fact, earlier model solutions had the
freezing line moving north of Missouri by sunset Sunday; but now
model solutions are slowing the northward progress of the freezing
line, which seems more reasonable given the slowing of the synoptic
features. Have gone ahead and pushed out the expiration time for the
northern segment of the Ice Storm Warning from midnight Sunday to 6
AM Monday as a result. In fact, we may need to extend the Ice storm
Warning for areas around and north of Highway 50 as the freezing
line may only lift as far north as the Missouri River Sunday
afternoon.

Monday...icing may linger across far northern Missouri early Monday
morning, though temperatures are expected to climb above freezing
during the mid to late morning hours. However, the precipitation
wont be done with us as the Baja circulation slips through the
Central Plains. While this will give us one more wet day,
temperatures are expected to be above freezing so wintry weather is
not expected.

Rest of the work week...temperatures will be on a slow up swing. Mid-
range models advertise the next chance of widespread rain will be
possible next Friday into Saturday, though at this time temperatures
look plenty warm enough to limit the threat of any wintry weather.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CST SAT JAN 14 2017

MVFR to IFR conditions through the period with worsening conditions
expected overnight. Patchy freezing drizzle or freezing rain enters
the picture after sunset, with more widespread activity expected
prior to sunrise Sunday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Ice Storm Warning until 3 PM CST Sunday for KSZ057-060.

     Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for KSZ025-102.

     Ice Storm Warning until midnight CST Sunday night for KSZ103>105.

MO...Ice Storm Warning until 3 PM CST Sunday for MOZ033-038>040-
     043>046-053-054.

     Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>024.

     Ice Storm Warning until midnight CST Sunday night for MOZ025-
     028>032-037.

&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Blair



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