Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 081136

636 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2014

Issued at 344 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

After a very busy evening across northwest Missouri and northeastern is shaping up to be much more quiet as drier air
advects into the region behind last night/s cold front passage.
Expanding out some...regional radars showing last night/s MCS rapidly
loosing definition across southern Missouri this morning as it
becomes further and further displaced from main mid-level shortwave
energy now found over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. In fact much
of the fcst area is now seeing very few returns on radar aside from
some lingering lgt shwr activity south of the Highway 7 corridor
which appears to be out ahead of a secondary cold front which will
clear the area this morning. Lightning strikes noted across north-
central Kansas in association with this feature...however much of
activity should shift south of the KC Metro as main shortwave to our
north continues to dig southward with time. Based on the current
radar presentation...have started out with the highest pops drawn
well south of the KC Metro this morning with a gradual drying trend
expected CWA-wide through the morning as aforementioned dry air
advances into the area. As this occurs...most will notice much more
comfortable conditions as afternoon dewpoints mix out into the upper
50s and lower 60s...a far cry from the lower to middle 70 degree
dewpoints experienced on Monday. High temps today should warm into
the lower to middle 80s.

Weak high pressure across the central Plains and lwr Missouri Rvr Vly
to control the weather pattern through the overnight period tonight.
With mainly clear skies aloft...overnight lows will fall into the
lower to middle 60s...with a few pockets of radiational fog possible
across the traditionally favored river valley locations.

Southerly return flow to become reestablished on Wednesday as high
pressure exits east into the Ohio Rvr Vly. As this occurs...fcst
models show weak leeside low pressure dropping out of the central
high Plains. The end result will be a gradual northward lifting of
a stalled frontal boundary renewed opportunities for precip by Wed
ngt as shortwave energy begins riding along the front in northwest
flow aloft. For now...have capped pops in the slgt chc category
mainly across the western third of the fcst area. Front to make
little progress on Thursday however a few storms will be possible
during the afternoon during peak heating. Right now the best chance
for shwrs/storms appears to be Thu night/early Fri as a strong
shortwave moves over the region while the main front continues
lifting through the area. Have maintained the previous fcst of high
chc-likely pops as a strong LLJ will create fairly decent isentropic
ascent across the area. From this vantage point best deep- layered
shear expected to remain across Nebraska and Iowa which should limit
the severe threat further south across our region.

Active weather pattern expected to remain right through the weekend
as a series of frontal boundaries become stalled to our north. As it
looks right potential for heavy rains will remain north
of our area as main upper jet becomes displaced across the northern
Plains and upper Miss Rvr Vly. If this pattern sets up as
advertised...a fairly warm and humid period will be in store for much
of the area as upper ridging remains stout across the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

VFR conditions expected through the fcst cycle following last night/s
cold front. Lingering upper CI associated with convection across
central KS will erode with time this morning. Dry but warm air aloft
will only allow for a FEW-SCT flat CU deck later during peak
heating. Winds will increase out of the northwest with gusts possibly
reaching into the lower 20 kt range at all three terminals. Winds will
begin to subside early this evening before going nearly calm




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