Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 161153
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
553 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

Record breaking cold likely early this week...

Regional radars showing plenty of lgt snow across the region this
morning as main upper-level trough and associated cold front
continue to slide through the area. So far snowfall reports through
the overnight have been far and few between....however accumulations
of less than a half inch are likely through the remainder of the
early morning hrs. Fcst becomes a bit more interesting after 12z as
models have trended a tad further north with frontal band QPF axis
that is expected to impact the far southern zones later this morning
into early afternoon. That said...forcing for ascent looks to be
fairly decent as main upper PV lobe slides east through the course of
the day today. Additionally...models show increasing frontogenesis in
the 850-700 hPa layer as the thermal gradient increases thanks to
increasing cold air advection behind aforementioned secondary cold
front. All told...chances look fairly promising for some light
accumulations south of the KC Metro later today.

Initial look earlier this evening suggested we may need another
advisory for far southern zones to account for anticipated snowfall.
After collaboration with both SGF and LSX...have elected to hold off
on issuing any flags as snowfall accumulations will likely barely
eclipse the 1" mark. This decision is also supported by the recently
arriving 6z NAM and latest runs of the HRRR which are now trending a
bit further south than the earlier runs. In any event...can/t rule
out some minor travel problems later today and daytime shift can
issue SPS statements as needed. Further north...except for some
occasional flurries and chilly conditions as highs top out in the
middle to upper 20s.

Beyond this...story quickly turns to bitterly cold temps as the
chilliest airmass of the season descends upon the region following the
passage of another cold front (albeit dry) overnight tonight.
Following its passage...models show the -20C 850 isotherm making its
way south into northern sections of the fcst area during the day on
Monday. This should result in high temps struggling to reach 20
degrees across much of the area which combined with brisk northwest
winds...will result in single digit windchills through the day.
Confidence continues to increase that record cold high temps likely
to be reached on Monday with record lows also likely Tuesday morning
as the mercury easily falls into the single digits (see climate
section below).

Finally by Tuesday...high pressure across the far southern Plains
will begin tracking east which combined with low pressure entering
the northern Plains...should allow low-level winds to change over to
the south. The end result will be daytime highs climbing back into
the upper 20s to lower 30s Tuesday afternoon with the moderation
trend expected to continue through midweek.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

The extended continues to look cold and dry for the first half of
the extended before precipitation chances increase towards the end
the work week. Models start out in good agreement at the beginning
of the period on Wednesday with the upper level pattern revealing
upper level troughing over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley and
upper level ridging over the western CONUS. Northwest flow aloft
will still be in place over the area however, it will relax a bit
from the very cold temperatures that will affect the area on Monday
and Tuesday. Expect highs in the lower 30s to lower 40s. The model
solutions begin to diverge during this time period with the GFS
keeping the area under northwest flow again Thursday before the
pattern becomes more zonal Thursday through Saturday. The EC depicts
a reinforcing upper trough digging through the Midwest Thursday into
Friday which would reinforce the cold pattern in place. The Canadian
is a middle of the road solution. Have maintain a blended solution
to account for models differences.

The models do come into some agreement with the main feature of
interest in the extended in the form of an upper level trough. This
trough will move from the southwestern Conus into the western High
Plains on Saturday. Warm air advection showers will be underway on
Saturday ahead of the system. The main question is how this system
will evolve. The GFS is progressive with this system in moving a
open wave through the area Saturday night into Sunday. The EC digs
and slows the trough as it moves into the Plains Saturday and Sunday
and closes a low in the base of the trough across Oklahoma on
Sunday. this would provide for a colder and prolonged wet solution.
As such, have chance POPs with rain or snow wording in the forecast
for Saturday night and Sunday to account for difference in
solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 541 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

IFR conditions showing signs on improvement this morning with all 4
sites reporting low-end MVFR cigs. Snow for the most part has ended
with the arrival of drier air that continues to filter into the
region. Expect lingering MVFR cigs through around 15z before clouds
begin to dissipate. Winds through the day will remain from the
northwest between 10-15 kts...before backing to the west by late
afternoon in advance of a secondary cold front that will pass
overnight. Boundary to make its way through the area between 4 and
7z with MVFR clouds returning late as cold air arrives following
frontal passage.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated at 345 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

Monday
November 17th     Current Record Low        Forecast High Monday
Record Low Highs                 High                     Afternoon
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Kansas City          24 in 1891                   21
St. Joseph           26 in 1951                   21

Tuesday
November 18th     Current Record Low        Forecast Low Tuesday
Record Lows                                              Morning
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Kansas City          14 in 1903                    7
St. Joseph           16 in 1989                    5

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...32
CLIMATE...Cutter






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