Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 132101
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
401 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

Our taste of Fall will fade with the weekend, but below normal
temperatures and rain continue to be in the offing for the work
week.

Water vapor imagery this afternoon show us the shortwave trough,
that brought the cold air for the past few days, has shifted well to
our east, but there are still more troughs waiting in the wings to
our northwest which will keep conditions cool and possibly wet going
through the work week.

For the rest of the weekend temperatures will slowly climb back up
as the cold surface high slides off to the east under the influence
of a locally zonal flow. This "locally zonal flow" will not last
long as couple of shortwave trough will dive into the northern
Plains starting today, eventually adjusting the flow to the
northwest for our section of the Country. The persistence of the
northwest flow in the wake of our cool surface temperatures will
keep conditions cool through the work week, though by "cool" we mean
highs in the upper 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. So, at
this time we are not foreseeing any additional frost issues this
coming week.

Next chance at precipitation will arrive late Sunday night,
persisting through the day Monday as the two modest little shortwave
troughs that will help define the northwest flow this coming work
week, induce some stormy activity. The leading shortwave will help
set the stage for a weak frontal passage Monday as the secondary
shortwave dives a little farther into the Plains and finishes
pushing the front south through northern Missouri Monday. Models
have been consistent in advertising storms through much of the day
Monday, though each run seems to push back the start time a little
with the onset of precipitation not likely until after midnight
Sunday/early Monday morning. This continues to look like a
reasonable solution with the shortwaves forecast to drop into the
Northern Plains. Sever potential looks non-existent at this time as
instability is doesn`t look sufficient given the relative amount of
shear. Still thunderstorms and showers with embedded thunderstorms
look likely through the day Monday. Some concerns remain on the
amount of rainfall possible with these storms due to recent flooding
issues across northern Missouri, and while this potential will need
watching, local rivers are draining away the water and precipitation
totals don`t look too extreme at this time as the advertised low
level jet feeding the moisture Sunday night into Monday is only
around 35 knots.

Otherwise, mid-work week another weak shortwave is advertised by the
models to induce more storms, but current model trends look to keep
most of the activity to our west.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at most terminals through the next 24
hours. Only issue might be the KSTJ as calm winds, clear skies and
abundant surface ground moisture might result in more steam fog from
the Missouri River.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter






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